A million dollars? For a baseball player? People could hardly believe it.
In November 1979, Nolan Ryan and the Houston Astros agreed to a four-year deal worth $4 million, making the Texas pitcher the first player in MLB history to earn at least a million dollars a year. Reporters and the public soon dubbed him “The Million Dollar Man.” It was a headline-grabbing and paradigm-changing contract – proof that the sport had changed and was still changing.
The rise of free agency in the 1970s, sparked by a series of player-led labor fights, caused contract values to skyrocket. Ryan and the game’s other top stars finally got paid what they were worth. Still, the sticker shock of having that big, fat, round number attached to Ryan’s name made it hard for some fans to wrap their heads around it.
Oh, if they could see us now.
The ink has barely fallen on Juan Soto’s historic, eye-popping $765 million pact with the New York Mets. It’s a gigantic number that can get even bigger. If Soto opts out after 2029 and the Mets choose to retain him by adding $4 million to each of the final ten years of the deal, $765 million will turn into more than $800 million.
It is a mountain peak that will not be climbed again for a while.
Soto is of course generational. Furthermore, the bidding war to earn his services was heightened by the perfect storm: a showdown in New York between two of the game’s richest teams. But beyond that, the current MLB landscape isn’t particularly ripe with young stars rushing toward the open market. Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Chourio and Corbin Carroll all signed long-term extensions that will keep them from reaching free agency at a young age. There is no obvious candidate to surpass Soto.
But certainly similar things were said about Ryan and those top-tier baseball millionaires. The thought of a baseball player making a billion dollars would have damaged the mental circuit boards of any early 21st century ball fan. But time passes, money becomes more expensive and our expectations adjust.
That is, one day some major leaguer will sign a $1 billion contract. Who will that be? Let’s dive down that rabbit hole and theorize irresponsibly.
First a note about age
Soto’s contract could be worth $800 million, largely because the contract has a 15-year term. Still just 26 years old, Soto’s huge payday was made possible by his remarkably early MLB debut at age 19.
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, widely considered players superior to Soto in their own free-agent sweepstakes, received “only” $360 million and $460 million in today’s value, because they came to market at 30 and 29 years, respectively.
It pays to be young. And so whoever eventually crosses the nine-figure threshold will have to reach the bigs and free agencies as early as possible.
And in position
Unless we make huge advances in medical technology, the first billion-dollar player will be a position player. Elbows are simply too fragile, pitchers too sensitive to wear and tear.
If Paul Skenes wants a contract that starts with a B, he should start hitting again, just like he did in college.
Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz or Jackson Merrill
These three are grouped together because they represent a similar archetype: a very good, very young player with a mile to go before he’s free. Henderson, who is 23 years old and has already compiled more career bWAR than Nick Castellanos, is the best of the trio. He is also a client of agent Scott Boras, the man who negotiated Soto’s mega deal. But Henderson (1) will be two years older than Soto and (2) doesn’t yet have Soto’s unquestioned, generative offensive track record. It’s unlikely, but he could come there.
For De La Cruz, also represented by Boras, the question is about his ceiling; no one in the world offers such a tantalizing speed-power combination. But teams will certainly have concerns about how the 6-foot-4 shortstop will age. Soto’s value was squarely focused on his bat, something that clubs believed would not fade over time.
Merrill, who made his debut this past season at age 21, is on this list simply because he is a phenomenally skilled young hitter who, barring an extension, would hit free agency in his age-27 season. Will he be the first billion-dollar player? Probably not, but then again, no one thought Soto would get paid $800 million when he debuted.
Jackson Holliday or Junior Caminero
The baby-faced infielder from Baltimore thoroughly underwhelmed in his 2024 debut season. But the former No. 1 overall prospect did something hugely important for this stupid exercise: He debuted at age 20. That means he will be a free agent heading into his age-27 season. Holliday still needs to develop into a generational big-league player, but the bones are there.
Caminero, born a few months before Holliday, will hit the open market in 2031, at the same time as Holliday. The Tampa Bay third baseman also showed slightly more potential than his division counterpart in 2024, though he still has a long way to go before a free agent payday.
Arjun Nimmala
Okay, follow me on this one.
Nimmala, drafted 20th overall by the Blue Jays in 2023, took a huge developmental step forward in Low-A this past season. But that’s not why he’s on the list. To make $1 billion, you have to be a financial draw. And Nimmala, who is Indian-American and spent his childhood summers visiting family in India, has the opportunity to enter a new market as a global superstar.
Rangers pitcher Kumar Rocker became the first Indian-American big leaguer when he debuted in 2024, but Nimmala, currently 19, has a chance to move the needle even further, both as a position player and as a player who could reach the big leagues. at a young age. In the (highly unlikely) scenario that Nimmala finds out, becomes one of the best players in the MLB, and the most populous country in the world falls in love with baseball, that could be worth a billion dollars.
Leodalis De Vries
The 18-year-old Dominican shortstop was signed by the Padres less than a year ago, but he is already making waves. San Diego sent him to Low-A Lake Elsinore this past season, where De Vries held his own despite being the youngest player in the entire league. He struggled somewhat in the Arizona Fall League, but remains an extremely exciting prospect.
There is a scenario, albeit an unlikely one, in which the Padres, who have a track record of rocketing their players up the ladder, push De Vries to the Majors for part of next season. That could make him a free agent heading into his age 24 or 25 season — even younger than Soto. For that to be important for this exercise, he must of course also be very good.
Ethan Holliday
Jackson’s brother and Matt’s second son are considered by many prognosticators to be the top prospect in the upcoming 2025 MLB Draft. Ethan is much bigger and more physical than his older brother, which gives him greater power potential and an infield corner is more likely defense base. The youngest Holliday should work his way up whatever farm system he ends up in, but the offensive ceiling is there. That said, probably not for a billion dollars.
The most likely answer
During the recent winter meetings, I walked around the building and asked several baseball people within organizations this billion-dollar question. The most common answer, almost a consensus, was: We don’t know his name yet.
Nearly everyone I spoke to believed that the Billion Dollar Boy is indeed already walking this Earth, probably somewhere in Japan or the Dominican Republic right now, but the billion dollar day is too far away to actually know anything about the human race. in question.
