HomePoliticsWhy AP called the Nevada Senate race for Jacky Rosen

Why AP called the Nevada Senate race for Jacky Rosen

WASHINGTON (AP) — Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen won reelection early Saturday morning after The Associated Press said she had defeated Republican Sam Brown in a race that hinged on Rosen’s strong showing in the state’s two largest counties –Clark and Washoe.

With almost all votes counted, the AP called the race for Rosen.

When the AP called the race at 12:15 a.m. ET on Saturday, there were not enough votes left to count in the state’s rural areas to close the gap left by Rosen’s performance in the provinces that are. home to Las Vegas and Reno.

Rosen was one of several vulnerable Democrats in the Senate who defended their seats as control of the chamber hung in the balance. By the time Rosen was declared the winner, the Republican Party had long won control of the Senate and will return to Washington as a member of the minority party.

The AP only declares a winner if it can determine that a trailing candidate cannot close the gap and overtake the voting leader.

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Here’s a look at what the AP called this race:

CANDIDATES: Rosen (D) vs. Brown (R) and two others plus “None of these candidates.”

POLL CLOSING TIME: 10:00 PM ET

ABOUT THE RACE: Rosen was one of five vulnerable Senate Democrats running for re-election in a cycle in which a loss to any of them could have cost their party control of the chamber given the Republican takeover of retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat . in West Virginia earlier on election night.

Rosen was first elected in 2018, when she defeated Republican incumbent Dean Heller by 5 percentage points. Brown ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for the other U.S. Senate seat in 2022, finishing a distant second in a crowded field behind Adam Laxalt. He is a retired army captain who was almost killed by a roadside bomb in Afghanistan. Rosen has more than doubled Brown’s spending and fundraising for the cycle, but both entered the final two and a half weeks of the campaign roughly equal in terms of available cash in the bank.

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In statewide elections, Democrats typically hold just two of Nevada’s seventeen counties: Clark (home to Las Vegas) and Washoe (home to Reno). Whether they win depends on how big their margins are in those two provinces. Clark County has by far the largest population in the state. A large voting margin there is crucial for democratic electoral success. It included 69% of the total statewide vote in 2020. Washoe is more competitive.

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: In voting results reported after Election Day, Rosen has consistently won every update released by election officials in Clark and Washoe counties. There is no precedent in the recent Nevada elections of ballots being counted late in the process in those counties to support a Republican, and at the time of AP’s election call there were not enough ballots left in the state’s rural counties to compensate for her advantage in Clark. and Washoe.

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Read more about how and why the AP declares the winners of the U.S. elections on Explore Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping understand American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory reporting on elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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