Why Brandon Aiyuk is so special, fits the scheme so well, and is such a good fit for the Steelers (and everyone else)

Between the team-wide practice scrimmages and the draft steals/busts announced in training camp clips shot from a Dutch angle, we’re on the cusp of a flood of NFL preseason games.

There have been rumors, and counter-rumors, and regarding-rumors, and a dog in a hat, about an impending deal involving wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk of the San Francisco 49ers, and, depending on what time you last checked, the Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots and/or Pittsburgh Steelers.

The 49ers, who are grappling with a current and future salary cap situation involving most of their current core, including the potential mega-deal for quarterback Brock Purdy, are allowing Aiyuk to test the market to avoid potentially losing him for nothing — or guaranteeing use of the franchise tag, which takes away a potential chip for the 49ers’ other upcoming free agents.

Fresh off a second-team All-Pro nod, Aiyuk has a market. But what makes him worth the buzzy prize that could fetch more than $30 million annually?

What Makes Brandon Aiyuk So Special (and Schedule-Friendly)

Brandon Aiyuk just moves differently. That’s not to say he’s faster than anyone else, because he’s not, but Aiyuk’s body control and flexibility are remarkable. His ability to jump and burst in and out of his routes, leap forward on his route break like Indiana Jones spelling “Jehovah,” and freeze bewildered cornerbacks:

And he moves at angles that a large portion of players in the league can’t even imagine, spreading his legs as if he’s going to perform a crossover dribble, but seemingly losing little speed as he blazes past defenders who have an advantageous influence on him:

Aiyuk has not only blossomed into a valuable pass catcher who can consistently win against man coverage, but also a more complete receiver and football player in general. Aiyuk’s traits jump out at you right away, but he’s really starting to get a feel for the position. His disco-esque route-running style isn’t empty calories. As you can see in the clips above, Aiyuk’s ability to burst in and out of his motions makes defenders uncomfortable, and he’s started to gel as an isolation receiver who can thrive on the ball and against pressure, while also showing more detail for the position that makes him a consistent link in the chain of progression.

Aiyuk’s route-running has become more nuanced, his chaotic moves refined and focused by head coach Kyle Shanahan (a long-underrated receiver coach) and the 49ers’ coaching staff. The mustang-like route-running of his early career is still as wild as ever, but now it morphs into the rhythm of the offense.

Aiyuk’s box score stats of 1,342 yards came at a solid 17.9-yards-per-reception clip, but those routes weren’t just shot plays down the field. He’s an absolute machine on out-breaking routes, taking advantage of — while also harnessing — the tight splits found in this offense. It creates winning plays, first downs and explosive plays at a dizzying pace.

That motion, route and catch adjustment translates to any offense. And it’s a far cry from what Aiyuk had to do early in his career. (He actually had 11 rushes for 94 yards and two touchdowns in his first two seasons — followed by two total carries, both in 2022, over the past two.) His route-running has been pushed down more in inverse proportion to his actual skill level. He can win while operating at all three levels and in both directions, and is a strong tracker of the football down the field. His body control and hand-eye coordination show up on both long throws and running after the catch, plus his size and feel show up against zone over the middle.

His average depth of target increased from 9.8 yards in 2021 to 13.8 yards in 2023, with Aiyuk’s yards before the catch increasing from 8.6 yards in 2021 to 12.8 in 2023. To further put Aiyuk’s emergence as a true outside receiver who can win downfield and in isolation into perspective, in 2022, Aiyuk had 78 receptions for 1,015 yards, including 627 yards before the catch and 388 after; in 2023, he had fewer receptions (75) but 1,342 yards, including 960 yards before the catch and 382 after. This incredible leap in efficiency resulted in Aiyuk passing the elite 3-yards-per-route threshold and being at or near the top of metrics like first downs (divided by whatever you like) and EPA (albeit at a lower usage rate; more on that later).

The 49ers offense has been popularized as “positionless” due to the starring roles of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk. Aiyuk used to be a member of that contingent, because while he can still be a threat on manufactured touches, he’s transformed into a true outside receiver who can win while performing the more difficult tasks such as winning against pressure, leverage and while not in a moving position.

He’s also, as a result of a few visits to Shanahan’s doghouse and his maturation as a player, become a solid blocker at the position. A believer in the “we all eat” philosophy of the 49ers’ team-first offensive attack, he opens up paths in the run game and for his teammates on the perimeter. Even on assignments away from the point of attack or down the field late in plays, common situations when most receivers fly off, you could see Aiyuk flying into the dirt to dig up his assignment or chopping his feet as he completed his block on a defensive back.

Aiyuk in Pittsburgh? It could be the best match

That being said, it is a bit It’s scary to pluck Aiyuk out of the 49ers’ ecosystem — away from Shanahan, McCaffrey, Samuel, Purdy and George Kittle — and expect his performance to be CTRL+C and CTRL+V. While I think Aiyuk has developed into a wide receiver with a skill set that translates to a variety of schemes and situations, I think he’s already fully unlocked, like many players under Shanahan.

Aiyuk’s target share of 22.6% ranked 20th in the NFL and his total route run of 448 ranked 52nd behind the likes of Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, Darnell Mooney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. If he were to move to a new team, he would have to perform as the guy at a much higher usage. That said, I think he could still perform, maybe not at the hyper level we saw in Santa Clara, but still as a needle-mover if he were to move to Cleveland, New England or Pittsburgh. But it’s still a higher ask when you’re expected to win regardless of the game design or situation.

All of those potential spots will feature run-first offenses, something that should make the rebuilding process easier. He’s going from a 49ers offense that uses 12 or 21 personnel, and therefore just two wide receivers, on more than half of its offensive plays and at one of the highest rates in the NFL. The team most likely to land Aiyuk, the Steelers, actually have a playing philosophy that would put him in familiar launch pads even in new offensive environments under offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Smith’s Falcons used two or fewer receivers at a higher rate than even the 49ers, and featured a twist on the offensive ideals that Shanahan has popularized around the league.

Aiyuk’s ability to win on the ball as an X wide receiver, his quickness to move around the formation, and his explosive playmaking ability with the ball in his hands make his translation that much easier. The Steelers already have a traditional vertical X wide receiver in George Pickens , but Aiyuk’s presence would make life much easier for Pickens while also creating formation freedom for Smith to use his receivers as either traditional on-the-ball players or players who can move around the formation. Aiyuk can be utilized as both a deep and intermediate route runner on Smith’s play-action staples, either taking the top off to create space for others or as a viable weapon over the middle who can create chunks of yards after the catch. This route-and-catch is exactly what Smith likes to utilize in his offense:

There will be plenty of jokes about Smith using his star players as a crutch for lesser players, but Aiyuk’s willingness to contribute in the run game (along with his latent talent as a runner himself) should be seen as a bonus in what is sure to be a stout offense in Pittsburgh. With the Steelers’ youth along their offensive line (a glut of cheap contracts extends to non-quarterbacks as well), and the, how to put this nicely, lack of effort The Steelers have an Aiyuk bonus at quarterback, once trade terms are agreed upon it should be easy to execute.

Aiyuk’s deep-threat ability will be most effective against whoever starts at quarterback for the Steelers. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields have similar playing styles, both preferring to do their damage on the outside and downfield, and both do best with longer-developing play-action concepts. Both would benefit from being mind-meld partners with Aiyuk as they go into scramble mode and attempt to create something off-script:

And there’s plenty of potential for big plays if they can start consistently hitting deep balls, something that’s up for grabs if the Steelers’ young line can create a strong run game. (I’m optimistic the Steelers’ offense will hit its stride in the second half of the year.) But whether Wilson or Fields can operate within the structure of the offense to consistently work over the middle of the field, which they haven’t done so far in their careers, will be more defining of Aiyuk’s role and route tree in Pittsburgh than his actual ability. Or maybe Smith will work wonders and get the quarterbacks out there and firing stuff over the middle like Ryan Tannehill did in his prime.

Aiyuk being able to provide his quarterback with gimmes as an isolated receiver is another answer he can give to whichever offensive coordinator and quarterback he ends up paired with. An easy button that allows quarterbacks to avoid their progressions and take a simple route to yards on first downs.

Aiyuk has been used as a key cog in an attacking machine so far in his career, but not the engine of that machine. And even if the results look different in his new environment, Aiyuk’s improved skills and refinement should allow him to lead the passing game to success no matter where he ends up.