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Gov. Gavin Newsom hit the campaign trail across the country last week to help Vice President Kamala Harris in her presidential race, but he hasn’t campaigned with Democrats in crucial Central Valley House races since March.
The last time Newsom campaigned side-by-side with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, in California’s 22nd Congressional District was before the March primary. Newsom has not campaigned at all this year with former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, in California’s 13th Congressional District.
California could be the key to control of the House of Representatives. Five Republican incumbents face a race for their seats. Two of them are in the Central Valley.
Why not spend the last few weeks campaigning relentlessly in the Central Valley’s congressional districts, less than a day’s drive from Sacramento?
Because Newsom wouldn’t help them, experts said.
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The Democratic governor has a higher disapproval rating in the Central Valley than in other parts of the state. Many voters in California’s agricultural center lack confidence in the state government. Walking hand-in-hand with challengers could be better fodder for Republican attack ads than encouragement for Democrats to act.
“I don’t know that he would necessarily be a hindrance, but I don’t see him being much of a boost either,” said Tom Holyoke, a professor of political science at California State University, Fresno. “I don’t think most Valley Democrats particularly like them. They don’t hate him either. But I don’t think they really embrace him.”
“The people who would be most motivated by a Gavin Newsom ad are the Democrats who are already going to vote for Adam Gray or Rudy Salas,” Holyoke said in an interview. “The undecided voters, the unmotivated voters there, are not going to be energized by Newsom.”
Among California regions, trust in Sacramento and Washington, D.C., was lowest in the Central Valley in last month’s Public Policy Institute of California survey, with 36% of respondents always or most of the time expressing trust in state government and 25% had that in the federal government. .
About half of respondents approved of Newsom’s statewide job performance in the September PPIC poll, the highest being his overall approval rating in 2024.
But 57% of Central Valley respondents disapproved of Newsom.
Newsom campaign spokespeople did not respond to requests for comment.
Salas’ campaign confirmed that the last time he clashed with Newsom on the 22nd was before the March primary. Gray confirmed that Newsom did not come out to campaign with him on the 13th of this election cycle.
Newsom’s Central Valley visits
Newsom has not completely bypassed the San Joaquin Valley, which makes up the lower part of the Central Valley and contains the two tossup House races. In September, he signed bills for farm workers in Fresno. He visited Kern County to see the effects of the Borel Fire in July. And he dedicated Dos Rios Ranch State Park outside Modesto in June.
These and other efforts are typical of the kind that are boosting the party in power, strategies that could help motivate Democrats in the Central Valley to help with area-specific issues.
Newsom has placed headlines in emails soliciting donations for tough congressional races in California, including in an Oct. 16 email asking Democrats to contribute because “control of the House through these four California House races,” referring to California’s 3rd, 13th, 22nd and 41st. Congressional districts. The email claimed that Trump could win and that Republicans could take control of the Senate, necessitating House control.
“So consider it Trump Protection,” the email continued. “Or think of it as giving Kamala Harris the House she needs to push her agenda.”
Newsom stepped in to help Salas emerge from what experts thought could be a competitive primary in March, where he faced an internal challenge from state Sen. Melissa Hurtado, D-Bakersfield. And messages with Newsom’s name asked voters to donate to Salas for fear of a Democratic lockout.
Newsom also visited Gray’s UC Merced class on Monday, November 7, 2022 – the day before the 2022 midterms.
Newsom’s downballot resistance
The San Joaquin Valley has two of the most competitive House races in the country.
Freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, faces Gray in 13th place in California. Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Salas are competing in California’s 22nd position. Both are rematches from 2022, when the Democrats narrowly lost.
Experts cite several reasons for these defeats. One of those was Newsom.
Republican Secretary of State candidate Brian Dahle, R-Bieber, defeated Newsom by more than 8 percentage points in 13th place in 2022. Duarte won the district that year by four-tenths of a percentage point.
Valadao defeated Salas by 3 percentage points in 2022. Dahle defeated Newsom in the 22nd by just over 4 percentage points.
“I think in 2022, Newsom was obviously a drag at the top of the ballot-abandoning Democrats,” said Erin Covey, analyst and editor of The Cook Political Report. “But I don’t think you can attribute the Republicans’ success solely to Newsom, just like you can’t entirely blame (Gov. Kathy) Hochul for the Democrats’ problems in New York.”
Republican attack ads
Gray and Salas each served 10 years in the California State Assembly. Both Gray and Salas have touted their ability to defeat Sacramento Democrats, with Salas often citing his 2017 vote against raising the gas tax and Gray citing differences in water law.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC dedicated to getting Republican House candidates elected, has an ad with a photo of Gray shaking Newsom’s hand. Super PACs, which can raise and spend money in unlimited amounts, cannot work with candidates. Valadao invoked Salas’ service in the Legislature during their debate this month, with Newsom as governor.
Going after Newsom could be a good strategy for Duarte and Valadao. The pair is maintaining a moderate profile to gain the upper hand in these districts, where there are more registered Democrats than Republicans and a growing bloc with no party preference. That could cost them the enthusiasm of Republicans who love former President Donald Trump, Holyoke said.
“The diehard Trump people are not going to be happy with these two candidates,” Holyoke said. “It might be a way to gain some energy by going after Newsom.”
Nicole Nixon of the Sacramento Bee contributed to this story.
