A new focus group of Georgia voters seriously considering a third-party candidate this fall reveals how some of President Joe Biden and former President Donald TrumpThe party’s former supporters in its key battleground are slipping away – and what, if anything, they can do to win them back.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was the clear favorite among participants in an NBC News Deciders Focus Group produced in partnership with Engagious, Syracuse University and Sago. While all ten electors voted for Biden or Trump in 2020, none said they currently plan to do so again: seven are currently behind Kennedy, two are behind independent professor and activist Cornel West and one supports Libertarian Party nominee Chase Oliver.
For many, their decision is not just a vote of protest, but one that symbolizes deep contempt for the nominees of both major parties, an exhaustion of the country’s political system and a longing for something different.
“I can’t in good conscience vote for either one. … I’ve seen them all as president and I don’t want to see them again for another four years,” said Sherri D., a 50-year-old from Roswell who supported Trump in 2020.
“So many people vote against the other, they vote for the lesser of two evils and I just don’t want to be that person,” she later added. “I want to actually research and learn and I want to vote for the person, in my conscience I really want to win, even if they don’t have a chance or even if people think they don’t have a chance.”
In 2020, Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Georgia since 1992. Of the six voters in the focus group who supported Biden four years ago, four said they planned to vote for Kennedy and two said they planned to vote for West.
When asked why Biden lost their vote, these voters said he had not kept his campaign promises or that he had governed more liberally than they expected. One voter criticized his support for Israel in its war against Hamas and another questioned his ability to govern.
“I don’t think he turned out to be as moderate as the Joe Biden I thought I was voting for. He seems to be controlled by the party, and if the party wants far-left policies, they get that with Joe,” said Ashley M., a 45-year-old from Fayetteville.
“He’s just a shell of himself. So it’s like I’m just voting for the party itself and not even really voting for the president,” said Charles P., a 41-year-old from Ellenwood.
The sentiment is consistent with how the ten voters described Biden – not one spontaneously expressed positive sentiment when asked for a word association about the president, with most comments focusing on his age, 81. Despite Trump having at 78, was just a few years younger than Biden. There was little discussion among participants about the Republican’s age.
None of the 10 described Trump in a positive way, with responses almost unanimously criticizing his character. As for the four focus group participants who voted for Trump in 2020 (three now support Kennedy and one supports Oliver, the libertine), there was a deep disdain for his personality and behavior as president.
“It’s almost like he ran the country like the TV show he was a part of. “You’re fired, you’re fired.” Just a character that I didn’t really like,” said Sherri D.
“I lost a lot of respect for him because of the January 6 scenario, being from Georgia and the way he bullied people in our state because of the outcome of the election. I was just, in my opinion, a sore loser and went after him. people,” she added.
Careasa C., a 36-year-old from Atlanta who voted for Trump in 2020 and now supports Kennedy, said she thinks Trump would only focus on “payback” and not “care about the citizens” if re-elected .
“I know Trump will go on a revenge tour this time,” she said.
RFK Jr.’s campaign finds resonance
But despite how negatively these voters feel about both candidates—which was no surprise since they were specifically selected for their disinterest in supporting the Republican and Democratic nominees—they did not unilaterally view support or consideration of a third option as a protest vote. In many cases, Kennedy and others resonated positively with these voters.
Sherri D. said she viewed Kennedy as “more in touch with the middle class” than the other two candidates, adding that the fact that he is “not tied to either of the two major parties and more of a unifying force for our country would be’ .”
Janely C., a 29-year-old from Kennesaw, argued that Kennedy is “trying to focus more on minorities” and “make everyone equal and give them the same opportunities.”
Ashley M. drew on Kennedy’s background as a lawyer and argued that he is “willing to take on corporations and not allow them to dominate the economy.”
David S. similarly brought up Kennedy’s work as an environmental lawyer, while also showing some sympathy for the candidate’s skeptical views on vaccines.
“We’ve asked our focus group participants about RFK every month, and most have seen him so far as an alternative to Biden or Trump or know the name Kennedy but admit they don’t know much about his record or platform. Georgia voters seemed different,” said Margaret Talev, director of the Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship at Syracuse University in Washington.
“They said they are learning details about his positions, from vaccines to foreign policy, and they are getting the chance to listen to him or see more of him,” she continued. “It will be worth watching to see if this was an outlier group or if RFK Jr. is able to reach large numbers of independent-minded voters through podcasts and social media.”
Kennedy’s promotion of vaccine-related conspiracy theories has been a major reason why his campaign was controversial. Some Kennedy supporters in the focus group showed some comfort with his comments on vaccines, but even though others said they largely disagreed with him on the issue, it wasn’t enough to push them to choose someone else.
West’s two supporters praised his work as a professor and progressive activist.
“I love that he’s an activist, that he’s trying to reduce gender, race and class inequality,” said Carrie S., a 41-year-old from Canton who supported Biden in 2020, adding that she West’s criticism of capitalism.
Fadila O., a 42-year-old from Lawrenceville who supported Biden in 2020, added that she liked West’s support for protests against Israel’s war in Gaza.
Asked to reconcile their vote with the reality that no minor party or independent candidate has won the presidency in the modern era, voters said it would have no bearing on their decision.
“Just because some people feel like this isn’t a realistic opportunity doesn’t mean I won’t still make my voice heard,” Cereasa C. said.
“You don’t know how many millions of people out there would like to see a difference in this country, and our votes will matter, period,” she added.
“For all the noise of competing presidential campaigns, what is often underappreciated is how much the two major party candidates still leave unaddressed. For voters looking to reduce wealth inequality, challenge vaccine mandates and implement a more bipartisan style of government, Kennedy scratches the itch they think Biden and Trump are ignoring,” said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, which moderated sessions.
“These disaffected voters told us they have little idea what Biden or Trump would try to accomplish in a second term,” he continued. “If either can present itself as a compelling problem solver, with plans to fight inflation, secure the border, and end overseas conflict, it will likely prevail.”
One eye on the debate
All of these voters had one more commonality, aside from their lack of interest in voting for Trump or Biden: Their preferred candidate will not be on stage for the first presidential debate on Thursday night. CNN announced last week that only Trump and Biden qualified under the poll and ballot access thresholds.
There was almost universal frustration among focus group participants that Kennedy would not participate.
“We had four years of people complaining about democracy and one side not supporting democracy… and then you get an opportunity and a news network says no to democracy, and it seems like the parties are working together to make sure that we don’t do that. actually have a full-scale democracy,” said Ashley M.
While eight in 10 voters said they would still watch the debate, only two said the debate could potentially change their minds.
“The debate will matter to me if I decide to vote for either of those two, just to see how competent Trump is versus Biden, if Biden can even hold his own in a debate,” Ashley M added. to it.
Charles P. noted that he is interested in the Trump debate because the presumptive Republican nominee has skipped every primary debate this cycle.
“I think maybe by some miracle they can convince me to vote for one or the other,” Sherri D. said before sighing.
“This is going to sound horrible, but it might be a little bit entertaining,” she added. “I probably know how it’s going to go, right? But I just don’t know. I want to see it.”
Talev, director of the Syracuse Institute for Democracy, Journalism & Citizenship in Washington, added that a clear theme among these voters was frustration “not just with Biden and Trump, but also with the two-party system and its impact on gridlock and policy.”
“These voters were very angry that RFK would not be on the debate stage and saw it as a conspiracy between the major parties and the mainstream media,” Talev said. “Several believe that his independence from both parties makes him more likely to make or get deals. In 2008, [Barack] Obama was the outsider. In 2016, Trump was the outsider. These voters see RFK as this year’s version.”
Convictions don’t move the needle
They also made it clear that they are not moved by Trump’s conviction on 34 charges in the New York hush money trial, nor by the conviction of Biden’s son Hunter for a gun crime.
Voters who had supported Trump in the past did not believe the charges against him were serious, but overall, about half of voters thought the case in New York was partly motivated by politics.
None of the voters said either guilty verdict changed their minds about who to vote for, and there was little incentive to send either man to prison.
“I don’t know where the prison rehabilitates any of these guys for the crime they committed,” Ashley M. said.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
