Republican lawmakers are planning a major overhaul of immigration law and border restrictions in an effort to achieve one of newly elected President Donald Trump’s signature issues. So far, their chances of becoming as big as the Conservatives want look bleak.
Despite controlling the House of Representatives and the Senate, the Republican Party faces major political hurdles in every way in implementing the crackdown on illegal immigration that was one of their big campaign promises.
Immigration hardliners and Republicans who have raised concerns about sweeping restrictions on asylum or deportations are at odds over how far to go on border security issues. The Republican Party will likely need a slim majority in the House of Representatives — potentially with no room for error — to pass immigration changes and will struggle to win over Senate Democrats who could filibuster the minority legislation. Republicans have a potential procedural tool to bypass the filibuster — a process known as budget reconciliation — but it appears the rules governing this maneuver could prevent them from making a major overhaul of immigration policy.
“We’re going to need some time to figure out what happens,” said Rep. Tony Gonzales, a Texas Republican who has clashed with more hardline conservatives on the issue. “What does a conference in the House of Representatives want? What does the Senate conference want? What does President Trump want? And then we have a short period to block all that.”
The looming battle over immigration underscores the enormous challenges Republicans face in delivering on their policy promises next year with a narrow margin in the House of Representatives, Trump’s chaotic influence and internal divisions even on issues that appear to otherwise shape the party. unite.
Republican lawmakers have been planning for months about what to do if they take control of Washington in January. Some Republican leaders on Capitol Hill privately regret the party’s failure to do more during Trump’s first administration, according to two lawmakers granted anonymity to discuss closed-door meetings.
Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, who is expected to retain his position next year, said in an interview that he went to Mar-a-Lago about eight months ago to talk to Trump about the 2025 game plan and met with the committee chairmen and groups within the House GOP conference since early summer. Scalise’s staff, Speaker Mike Johnson, outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and new Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not meet until the last week of November to discuss how to move forward with budget reconciliation.
There are some immigration issues uniting Republicans in their plans for next year, based on interviews with about a dozen Republican lawmakers. When it comes to budget reconciliation and bypassing the Senate filibuster, they think they have a chance to secure more money for the border wall, border technology and related personnel. They are also looking at ideas such as taxing money that individuals in the United States send to individuals in other countries.
After that, things get trickier.
House Republicans, including moderates from swing districts, are expected to try to quickly pass a party-line immigration bill. The legislation, known as HR 2, would most likely be a messaging exercise and would be blocked in the Senate. Republicans spent months negotiating the bill last year, which would crack down on asylum policies and require the construction of a border wall.
Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) wants to try to include some of the more dramatic changes in the reconciliation package — an effort that could potentially violate budget rules for the procedure, creating a clash with the Senate parliamentarian who enforces the rules. limits. Under budget reconciliation constraints, policies can only be included if they meet a set of rules, including that the impact on the budget must be greater than the impact on the policy. Trump is expected to implement some of those ideas through executive orders, but without Congress they could be undone by the next administration.
Here too, there are clear internal fault lines, with Republican Party hardliners disagreeing with centrists like Gonzalez over how broad Trump’s pledged mass deportation plan should be and how reconciliation should be used to support the effort.
Jordan said in an interview that he and his staff are exploring whether a reconciliation package could include the Trump-created Remain in Mexico policy, which would require some migrants to remain in Mexico while seeking asylum and would also include stricter rules about who is eligible for asylum. and changes to the Flores Settlement, which sets rules for the treatment and detention of immigrant children.
“We will be sworn in on January 3,” Jordan said. “We need to pass HR 2 as a standalone bill [break] breaking it down into pieces – I’m open to both – but passing it all on to show that we’re ready to go. Then see what parts of it… can be reconciled.”
Another House Republican who granted anonymity to discuss internal conversations pointed out that Democrats are using reconciliation to push through changes to Obamacare as a potential roadmap for how Republicans can fit into policies that could typically be passed by the parliamentarian. taken down.
“What’s good for the goose is good for the goose,” said a Republican lawmaker involved in the conversations who was granted anonymity to detail private conversations. “I’m sure there are some things the Senate parliamentarian doesn’t want to get into. But you know, you don’t know until you push and we have to push.
Previous attempts at immigration changes have failed in budget reconciliation. Democrats have made multiple attempts to include reforms such as extending work permits and providing temporary protection from deportation for certain undocumented immigrants in their own 2021 reconciliation package. But the Senate parliamentarian ruled that they were not following budget rules because they were “substantial”. policy opportunities’ that would ‘exceed the budgetary implications’.
When the Republican Study Committee collected more than 100 ideas from its members and presented them to Johnson earlier this year, they were keeping an eye on what was almost guaranteed to be advanced by the Senate. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) said in an interview that the group tried to keep their proposed ideas “as concise as possible … but also that it was plausible that it could be passed on to the parliamentarian.”
“We cannot be completely blind to what reconciliation is,” he added.
