I’ve changed my mind: This week’s presidential debate is important.
Before I continue, a quick recap: Last month I expressed my long-standing opinion that presidential debates are not very meaningful and very stupid. They are pseudo-events, historian Daniel J. Boorstin’s term for manufactured media spectacles that feel meaningful because we give them meaning.
My opinion on this as a historical issue is unchanged. Even debate buffs admit that John F. Kennedy won the first presidential debate in 1960 because he was telegenic and Richard Nixon looked like he woke up in a motel room after taking a bow. In other words, the debates were always about style over substance.
And even the style doesn’t matter that much. Researchers have found that debates have virtually no discernible electoral impact.
So why have I changed my mind about this debate? To start with, because a vibes debate can be important in ‘vibes’ elections.
We’ve all heard that many voters – about 20 of them – are so-called double-haters, people who really don’t want to vote for Trump or Biden. Perhaps more importantly, just a few months ago, an even larger share of voters didn’t believe they would actually face a choice between Trump and Biden. Only 33 percent of Economist/YouGov respondents in March said there would “definitely” be a rematch between Trump and Biden.
That is one of the reasons why the Biden camp wanted to have a debate in June, the first meeting in history after three months. They need to get their “available” voters to stop wallowing in the nonsense of denial, accept that this is the choice and come home. That alone makes this debate different.
Normally debates serve one or two functions. Sometimes they are last-ditch efforts to convince voters to make their choice. In other cases, they are post-Labor Day attempts to introduce or re-introduce candidates to voters who haven’t been paying attention.
But this debate is primarily an attempt to help voters understand what their choice is. These candidates – a sitting president who has been in politics for half a century and a former president and reality show celebrity – do not need to be reintroduced to voters, although voters do need to be reassured about them.
That’s why debate, with its tendency to reinforce style over substance, could be more important this time around. Great debate moments occasionally arise from well-placed one-liners, but more often they involve unintentional factors such as blunders, body language and even sighs. The results of presidential debates are usually not a policy position or plan, but rather a comfort with the idea that someone will be in our faces for another four years.
That’s a pretty stupid benchmark for choosing a president. But these are stupid times. And if the candidates’ biggest challenge is convincing voters who have deep doubts about their mental acuity and character, comfort level may be all that matters.
That’s why the stakes are higher for Biden in this debate. Yes, it was foolish of Trump to set the bar so low for his opponent by suggesting he’s a “brain-dead zombie,” but I think the lore about the expectations game is overblown. Regardless of Trump’s rhetoric, millions of people — undecided Democrats, independents, and especially those double-haters — have legitimate and genuine concerns about Biden’s mental and physical fitness. I don’t think debates are a good test of presidential fitness, but for many voters this debate could be a decisive test of Biden’s mental fitness.
Even progressives like CNN political analyst Van Jones have admitted that if the president really bungles this debate, it’s “game over” for him. I think that’s right. Whether justified or not, if Biden has a major breakdown, it will be an irreparable confirmation of voters’ concerns about his age. I would expect the rumors of his replacement on the roster to become loud shouts almost overnight.
But if Biden clears that very low hurdle, the stakes for Trump suddenly become higher. Most voters don’t like the former president and almost never have. If he focuses on the traits that turn them off — if he follows the age-old advice of “Be yourself” — and Biden is even modestly reassuring, the double-haters and other indecisives could easily break for the president. Certainly not all of them, but Biden doesn’t need them all.
To put it in boxing terms, if it’s a knockout, Biden will probably be the loser. If it is a split decision, there is a good chance it will go in Biden’s favor.
Read more at De Uitzending
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