Welcome to the online version of From the Political Bureauan evening newsletter featuring the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, Capitol Hill veterans Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorp V will decide from Montana whether Senator Jon Tester wins another term — and whether Democrats can maintain their majority in the Senate. Additionally, the “Meet the Press” moderator analyzes the poll numbers behind Barack Obama’s stern message to black voters.
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Jon Tester is pushing for ticket splitters in a Montana Senate race that appears to be disappearing
By Ryan Nobles and Frank Thorp V
BUTTE, Mont. — Tim Combo arrived at the second-floor union hall of the Western States Carpenters here Wednesday, covered in dust and grime from a day on the job. Combo, a 27-year-old union carpenter, deeply believes that the election will directly affect his life – and he has made his choice.
“I came here to vote for Jon Tester, and I’m going to vote for Donald Trump too,” Combo said in the audience where Tester spoke.
Combo represents the best hope for Tester, a Democrat, to win a fourth Senate term in deep-red Montana — and with it the possibility that Democrats will retain a slim majority in the House. But ticket splitters like him are becoming less and less common with each election in the polarized US, giving Republicans a good chance of capturing the Senate majority this fall.
Poll after poll shows Tester trailing Republican Tim Sheehy, a wealthy businessman and retired Navy SEAL, albeit by smaller margins than Vice President Kamala Harris trails Trump at the top.
Tester, who has defied the odds before, said he believes union halls like the one he spoke to Wednesday night represent the deep bond he has with the people of his state.
“Look, I have my own brand here in the state, and it’s different than the national Democrats,” he said in an interview. “I would never have been elected the first time or any other time if it had been the same as a national Democrat.”
But Tester’s campaign is making an aggressive pitch to convince Trump voters in Montana that it’s worth keeping him around because of the specific issues he has worked on on behalf of the state. In the Butte union hall, Tester touted his work to ensure billions of dollars for infrastructure projects allocated in 2022 would create union jobs. The mostly male group that packed the room, many of whom Tester said will vote for Trump, cheered loudly.
Tester, who twice voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges, has promised he could work with Trump and even listed issues on which they agree.
“We probably agree on the Second Amendment. We probably agree on the southern border. We, I mean, there’s some things, yeah, yeah,” he said.
Read more from Ryan and Frank →
Silver State Shipping: To the west, Nevada is hosting a must-win Senate race for Democrats that could dictate the size of a potential majority for the Republican Party.
Bridget Bowman reports from Las Vegas that some Republicans are concerned that it may be too late for Republican nominee Sam Brown to close the election gap with Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, even as the presidential race in the battleground state remains close.
Read more from Bridget →
The polls behind Obama’s warning to black men
By Kristen Welker
The most popular man left in Democratic politics officially campaigned for Vice President Kamala Harris in the final sprint to Election Day.
Former President Barack Obama came to Pittsburgh on Thursday with a stark warning to black men to step up their support for Harris.
“We haven’t seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all areas of our neighborhoods and communities as we did when I was running. Now I also want to say that that seems to be more apparent with the brothers,” Obama told a group of volunteers before his rally appearance, according to a pool report.
“Part of me thinks you just don’t like the idea of having a woman as president, and you think of other alternatives and other reasons for that,” he said. ‘You come up with all kinds of reasons and excuses. I have a problem with that.”
He called on them to “talk to people on the sidelines” and urged them not to consider “supporting someone who has a history of belittling you because you think that’s a sign of strength.”
‘Because that’s what being a man is? Putting women down?” Obama told them. “That is not acceptable.”
What’s behind this warning?
Recent polling in swing states from the Howard University Initiative on Public Opinion showed that while Harris had a large lead over former President Donald Trump and included black voters overall, there were notable differences when the results were broken down by age and gender.
The survey found that men under 50 were the most likely subset of black voters to support Trump over Harris. While Harris had a 78-point lead among black men over 50, this number drops to about 50 points among black men under 50.
In short, this is the first time we’ve heard this powerful and direct plea from the nation’s first black president to other black men. The question is: will this resonate and prompt these critical constituencies to more enthusiastically support Harris in the final weeks of the campaign?
🗞️Today’s top stories
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💰Please check: At least four cities and one county are still waiting to be reimbursed for costs related to local law enforcement and first responders during Trump’s previous visits. Read more →
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🏌️Rain control: Security concerns following an assassination attempt near one of Trump’s golf courses are keeping the former president from playing golf until after the election. Read more →
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🌀 Hurricane precipitation: The devastation in western North Carolina caused by Hurricane Helene has derailed Harris and Trump’s plans for the key swing state. Read more →
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☎️Call me, maybe: Since leaving office, Trump has kept in touch with more foreign leaders than just Russian President Vladimir Putin. Read more →
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⚖️ In the courts: Republicans have launched a new wave of lawsuits challenging overseas voting procedures in three swing states. Read more →
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📺 In the air: The Democratic National Committee launched a new TV ad in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin depicting Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein as a Trump stalking horse. Read more →
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🎤 Summary of the debate: Angela Alsobrooks and Larry Hogan met for their only debate on Maryland’s Senate race, sparring over whether the deep blue state would be better represented by a staunch Democrat or an anti-Trump Republican. Read more →
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🗳️ Down mood struggle: A race in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley could determine which party controls the House of Representatives next year — and predict who will win the White House. Read more →
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Follow live coverage from the campaign trail →
For now, that all comes from the Political Bureau. If you have any feedback – like it or not – please email us at politicsnieuwsbrief@nbcuni.com
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This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
