We saw what Ford Field looks like for a Detroit Lions playoff game last season. It was perhaps the best atmosphere in the NFL.
Imagine what it would be like if the Lions had two home wins in a Super Bowl as the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
A rather miraculous win over the Houston Texans last week has the Lions up to 8-1 and in good shape for the top seed and a bye. The Lions were the best team in the NFC, if not the NFL, and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to figure out who could beat Detroit in January.
But here’s a reminder that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Lions in a fluffy game in Week 2, when the Bucs were defeated 463-216. Fluxy losses can happen, even in the playoffs.
The Lions are far from unbeatable and the NFC should have a good playoff field, but only two teams really stand out as threats to keep Detroit from its first Super Bowl. Here’s a look at the possible playoff foils for the Lions:
Good, but probably not: Vikings, Packers, Commanders, Cardinals, Falcons
We are not currently accepting registrations from teams under .500. The NFC is too deep for that. So while a team like the Chicago Bears or Buccaneers could make a run and then be a giant killer come January, we’ll wait for it to happen.
There’s a case to be made for the Vikings and Packers, though the biggest problem is that the Lions have already beaten them both on the road. It makes it difficult to pick either one to win at Ford Field in a playoff game, though either team is capable. Especially if Minnesota can fix Sam Darnold’s turnover decline.
The Commanders, Cardinals and Falcons all fall into the same bucket. They can all score, but it’s hard to imagine their defense being good enough to slow the Lions down. The defense of the Commanders and the Cardinals in particular was much better than expected, but will they stop Detroit? Probably not. They will be dependent on beating the Lions in a high-scoring game and that is a tough ask.
However, two other top NFC teams are a better fit.
The Eagles are coming
The Philadelphia Eagles entered their bye week at 2-2. They were broken and unimpressive. Apparently everyone has stopped paying attention because they are now somehow flying under the radar.
Since the bye, the Eagles are 5-0. Over their last four games, their point differential is +78 with three wins by 20 points, each of them on the road. The schedule was simple, but the NFL doesn’t hand out 20-point wins. The Eagles have been good.
The Eagles are good enough defensively to limit Detroit. According to TruMedia, they rank sixth in defensive EPA (expected points added). Philadelphia has handled new coordinator Vic Fangio’s arrangements very well in recent weeks. The Eagles’ defense ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA allowed per rush and ninth in success rate against the run, which is a good force against a Lions offense that can do anything but defaults to lining up with its elite -offensive line and two star backs and punishing other defenses.
And Philly has the kind of offense that can run it, control the clock and keep the Lions offense off the field. They rank fourth in possession, largely because they are second in the NFL in rushing yards and first in attempts.
The formula and talent are there for the Eagles and pose a major problem for the Lions.
49ers still have the advantage
The 49ers would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. They would finish eighth in the NFC. The Cardinals would win the NFC West. The 5-4 49ers wouldn’t be a wild card.
But this season there is time to go. And the 49ers are still scary if they ever reach their ceiling.
San Francisco just got Christian McCaffrey back, and while they won’t be complete this season with Brandon Aiyuk done for the season, they still have a fantastic roster. According to advanced metrics, the 49ers are already good despite their disappointing record. They rank fifth in total DVOA, third on offense and fifth on defense. There are only two teams in the NFL that rank in the top five in offensive and defensive DVOA: Detroit and San Francisco. They’re second in the NFL in yards per play and that’s without a Hall of Fame running back eight games in and Aiyuk didn’t even make much of an impact in the seven games he played.
It’s okay to discount the 49ers. They don’t look as dominant as they have in recent seasons. They have struggled in many matches. But it’s dangerous to forget the 49ers. The analytics show that they are not that far removed from the elite team they once were, and that this is the level of team that could get hot in December and cause problems for a team like the Lions in January.
There is still a long way to go this season. Injuries will occur. The Lions could drop a few games and lose control of No. 1. Other contenders could emerge. But at the very least, the Eagles and 49ers appear likely to ruin Detroit’s plans to go to New Orleans for a Super Bowl this season.
After all, we have to find out who the Kansas City Chiefs will inevitably face in the Super Bowl, right?
