With days before Tuesday’s Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, one of the key swing states that could determine the winner, according to a new USA TODAY/Suffolk exclusive survey.
Harris and Trump each have an even split of 49% of the vote, according to a statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 27 to 30, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
A poll of 300 likely voters in Erie County, which could indicate which direction state trends are heading, was also 48% to 48% tied. Northampton County, another bellwether in Pennsylvania, leaned slightly toward Trump, with 50% saying they support him, compared to Harris’s 48%. The provincial poll results are within the margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.
Election 2024 live updates: The latest campaign news as Trump and Harris make the final push
The gender gap in the polls
Nationally, Harris has a decisive lead among women, while Trump has gained a similar lead among men.
And in Pennsylvania, that gender gap is “very pronounced,” Paleologos said.
Trump is up 20 points among men in Pennsylvania, 57% to 37%, while Harris has 18% more power over women than Trump, 57% to 39%. That’s compared to Trump’s 16-point lead among men nationally and Harris’ 17-point lead among women.
More: Harris, Trump deadlocked in battleground Michigan, new exclusive polls
Women’s rights a ‘major problem’
Kathleen Keshgegian, 42, said women’s rights are central to why she has already voted for Harris. “I have two daughters, and that’s my big problem,” she said.
“I terminated a pregnancy, and if I didn’t have that option, I think my life would be completely different, and most likely not a good way,” says Keshgegian, a stay-at-home mother of three. 11, 8 and 6, who live in Oreland, a suburb of Philadelphia.
Although Keshgegian voted for President Biden in 2020 because she felt he was the best choice, she “would prefer someone younger, more attuned to a change in administration, as opposed to the same old white men,” she said . She feels more connected to Harris, who she finds more relatable, compassionate and less divisive.
Keshgegian said Trump may be able to lower prices, and she understands people will vote for him for that reason. But she cannot adhere to what she sees as his other characteristics. “He’s rude, he’s sexist. I’m pretty sure he’s a criminal,” she said.
“I’d rather have less money in my pocket than someone with his ideals.”
That calculation weighs differently for others.
Trump receives support from people who think the economy is not doing well
Luanne McDonald, from Lancaster, Pennsylvania, said she has “mixed emotions” about the election and views both Trump and Harris as “terrible” candidates. McDonald, who describes herself as independent, disagrees with Trump’s positions on abortion or women’s rights but believes Harris is “weak and wishy-washy.”
She voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and plans to do so again on November 5. When it comes to the issues that matter most to her — the economy and public policy — McDonald said she thinks Trump will do better.
“I could buy a Babka at my Whole Foods when he was president, but now I can’t afford it,” said McDonald, a former nurse, referring to a traditional Jewish sweet bread. “I have never felt poor until now.”
Not surprisingly, more than 70% of people who view current economic conditions as bad say they support Trump. Harris outperformed Trump compared to those who believed the economy was in fair, good or excellent shape.
Eric Huhn, 62, plans to vote Republican, from Trump to the bottom of the ticket.
The owner of a house painting and wallpapering company in Chalfont, about 30 miles (48 kilometers) north of Philadelphia, said economic issues are his top priority. “As a self-employed person, nothing affects me more than what the government does to the economy,” he said.
He believes the Republican platform can deliver results.
Cheaper energy “will help lower the cost of goods, and less regulation will also help stimulate business growth,” he said. “I like Republicans because of their more conservative positions on spending and limited government.”
Trump’s denial of the 2020 results is turning off some voters
Trevor Borchelt, of Berks County, Pennsylvania, describes himself as a Reagan-era Republican who believes in fiscal conservatism and moral responsibility. But he said the party has lost sight of those ideals under Trump and plans to vote for Harris on Election Day, citing “democracy” as his top concern.
“I don’t disagree with any of Trump’s policies,” said Borchelt, 44, pointing to the former president’s tax and pro-production policies. “But if you don’t meet the bar of accepting the outcome of an election, [you] do not get involved in democratic elections.”
Trump faces multiple criminal lawsuits over efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and has refused to say he would accept the outcome of the 2024 race.
Borchelt has never voted for Trump — in 2016 he voted for Libertarian Party candidate Barry Johnson and in 2020 he endorsed Biden. This year, he said, he hopes Trump will lose and that politics will return to “honest debates about real issues, instead of all the name-calling and violence and ugliness.”
“I’m a little tired of it,” he said.
How many electoral votes does Pennsylvania have?
Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes – the most among swing states. Both candidates campaigned in the state this week. Trump held a rally in Allentown on Tuesday, while Harris visited Harrisburg on Wednesday.
Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a razor-thin margin of one percentage point. He defeated both Erie and Northampton County, which Trump won in 2016.
The state is part of the “blue wall,” a group of states that voted blue in recent federal elections until Trump won three in 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: PA poll: Gender gaps present in Trump, Harris support
