For nearly a decade, Donald Trump has done, said, and survived things that would have doomed any other politician.
He even saw his support increase after four sets of criminal charges last year – including the charge of falsifying corporate records of which he was ultimately found guilty in New York on Thursday.
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The polls cannot tell us how voters will react to the unprecedented judgment. Most voters didn’t even pay much attention to the process, and asking voters about mortgages is always fraught. With his record of political resilience, there is certainly little reason to expect Trump’s loyal MAGA base to suddenly collapse after a guilty verdict — or even prison time. It’s possible he won’t lose any support at all.
But in a tight election in a closely divided country, any losses could be crucial. While Trump has survived many controversies, he has also received political punishment for his behavior. After all, he lost re-election. And this cycle, there’s one reason to wonder whether Trump might be more vulnerable now: He depends on the support of many young and nonwhite voters who haven’t voted for him in the past, and who may not prove as loyal to be like those who have been by his side from the beginning.
Over the past six months, many pollsters have asked voters to consider the hypothetical scenario in which Trump was convicted at trial. It is important to emphasize that these poll results should not be interpreted as simulations of how voters will behave after a real conviction. The questions do not reflect how voters will respond to the full context and facts of the case, or to statements of support from Republicans, or to the reporting on Fox News. Instead, they put a hypothetical conviction right in the respondent’s face.
Nevertheless, the results show that a significant number of Trump supporters are understandably uncomfortable with the idea of supporting a criminal. This is a line that Trump has not crossed before, and some of his supporters were even willing to tell a pollster that they would vote for President Joe Biden if Trump were found guilty.
In New York Times/Siena College polls in October, about 7% of Trump supporters said they would vote for Biden if Trump were found guilty in an unspecified criminal trial. This may not seem like a large number, but anything close to it would be decisive in our era of close elections. Much more recently, a Marquette Law School poll during the hush money trial found that a modest Trump lead among registered voters nationwide became a four-point Biden lead if Trump was found guilty.
Again, these results should not be interpreted as indicative of what will happen after this conviction. And even if his numbers fall, many voters could end up turning back to Trump — especially Republicans, or those who might be convinced that the proceedings against him were “rigged.” In the Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena polls this month, voters were divided over whether Trump could get a fair trial. His allies will do everything they can to convince voters that he didn’t get one.
But Trump is not only counting on the support of Republicans and MAGA loyalists in the conservative information ecosystem. Its strength in the polls increasingly depends on surprising strength among voters from traditionally Democratic constituencies, including young, non-white and irregular voters. Many of these voters are registered as Democrats, support Democrats in U.S. Senate races, and may even have supported Biden in the last election. This is not the core of Trump’s proven support. This is a group of voters whose loyalties have not yet been established – let alone tested.
The Times/Siena and Marquette Law polls both suggest that these young and non-white voters could be particularly inclined to return to their traditional partisan views in the event of a conviction, with Biden returning to a much more typical lead among young and non-white voters. In fact, almost all unusual demographic patterns among young, nonwhite, and irregular voters disappear when voters are asked how they would vote if Trump were convicted.
In the Times/Siena poll, 21% of young Trump supporters said they would support Biden if there were a conviction. By comparison, only 2% of Trump supporters age 65 and older said the same. Similarly, 27% of Black voters who supported Trump switched to Biden, compared to just 5% of white respondents.
In the real world, the verdict may or may not revive Biden’s support among young and non-white voters. But now that Trump is counting on the support of so many voters who would not normally be expected to support him, the conditions to help Biden may be in place.
First, voters didn’t see this coming. Times/Siena polling during the trial this month showed that only 35% of voters in battleground states expected Trump to be found guilty. A majority, 53%, expected he would be found not guilty.
And voters hadn’t paid much attention to it. Only 29% of voters said they were paying “a lot” of attention to the process, and they were disproportionately Biden supporters. Only 10% of young voters (18 to 29 years old) said they paid close attention.
Now that so many voters are doubting their beliefs and have completely tuned out, the verdict may come as surprising news to millions of people. This doesn’t mean that young and non-white, traditionally Democratic voters will shy away from supporting Biden, but it seems more likely than if they were already paying attention and expecting it.
One of the better explanations for Trump’s strength among uninvolved voters is that he has benefited from being out of the news — from having his political commitments out of voters’ minds.
That may not be true anymore. It may not be clear for some time whether those voters will turn away from Trump and whether such a shift will continue. But in such a close race, anything can be enough to make a difference.
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