Will Paige Bueckers use her unprecedented influence? She could force a trade or return to UConn

Over the past year, Paige Bueckers has expanded the scope of what it means to be a college athlete. She played in a Final Four, but also became an equity partner of Unrivaled, designed her own player edition sneaker for Nike and appeared at various sporting events across the country.

In the new name, image and likeness era of college athletics, Bueckers has exercised unprecedented agency in her career and in building a brand for herself. What the budding superstar still can’t control is what comes next. Last month, the WNBA Draft lottery all but ensured that Bueckers’ next basketball stop will be with the Dallas Wings after they took the No. 1 pick.

For better or for worse, that is the nature of design. Players have limited influence over their destination. They may choose to meet or train certain teams and possibly withhold their medical records, but ultimately the teams hold most of the power.

However, Bueckers is in a rare situation where she has more leverage thanks to her marketability, NIL portfolio and college eligibility. (She could return for a sixth season at UConn due to COVID-19 eligibility rules.) If she decides not to play for the Wings — and the buzz around the league is that Dallas wasn’t her preferred destination — she would pull every lever possible can exercise. to get where she wants as quickly as possible.

Although Bueckers has indicated she will treat this season as her final year, she can return to UConn if she does not want to compete in the WNBA in 2025. Whether that’s because she’s chasing a national championship, preferring another draft destination or delaying her pro career until the institution of a new WNBA collective bargaining agreement, there are incentives to play another season with the Huskies. Even if Bueckers chooses to turn pro, she can simply demand a trade.

“There’s just a lot of noise — a lot more noise in terms of rumors, in terms of all this stuff around women’s basketball, now more than ever,” said ESPN analyst Andraya Carter, who played at Tennessee until her career ended in 2015. “I Don’t know if the rumors are true, but this is the first time I’ve heard it to this extent.”

While Bueckers would likely be a star in any WNBA franchise, Dallas doesn’t offer the best opportunity for a player with a huge built-in fan base and marketing appeal. The Wings have been notoriously unstable since moving to Dallas in 2016. They have cycled through coaches every two seasons and are looking for another. In 2018, a post-game altercation between head coach Fred Williams and CEO Greg Bibb led to Williams losing his job. Stars haven’t exactly flocked to the Wings in free agency, and some of their most prominent players have publicly trashed the organization; Skylar Diggins-Smith mentioned the lack of support she felt during her pregnancy in 2018-2019. A constant drain of talent has gone the other way. Diggins-Smith and Liz Cambage asked to join via trades, as did Allisha Gray and Marina Mabrey in the 2023 offseason.

In fairness to Dallas, the other lottery options also had their shortcomings. Teams are at the bottom of the rankings for a reason. Even if Bueckers would have preferred to go to Los Angeles or Washington, the Sparks have no practice facility and are in a four-year playoff drought, and the Mystics have no head coach or general manager and play on a 4,200 team. -seat.

Given the state of the lottery teams, Bueckers could return to college by waiving her draft eligibility at the end of the NCAA season and deferring the WNBA until 2026. Unfortunately, that still leaves her to the mercy of the lottery, but perhaps the threat of playing another season for UConn would motivate the Wings to take a trade question seriously.

Moreover, it might suit her better financially to delay the start of her WNBA career. By entering this season’s draft, she would lock herself into a four-year, rookie-scale contract that averages $87,000 per year. However, the WNBA will establish a new collective bargaining agreement before the 2026 season, one aimed at increasing player compensation.

The last time the league instituted a new CBA, second- and third-year players were locked into their rookie contracts from the previous agreement. This led to difficult and unfair situations; Napheesa Collier, an All-Star as a rookie in 2019, earned the lowest salary in the league in 2020 and 2021 despite being one of the best players. That’s a predicament Bueckers would rather avoid.

If Bueckers chooses to leave UConn after this season, which has been her public position, the main tool she has at her disposal is demanding a trade from Dallas. Golden State seems like an ideal destination in terms of market size and organizational strength, and furthermore, the Valkyries are motivated to land a star quickly, although Bueckers is best suited to provide a list of candidates to encourage negotiations.

Player empowerment is on the rise in professional sports, but that hasn’t been the case for the draft itself in recent years. In the WNBA, Kelsey Plum accepted her fate in San Antonio in 2017. Aliyah Boston willingly went to Indiana, leaving a five-win team displaced for three summers due to arena renovations. Before NIL, there was no other recourse for women’s basketball players, as players like Satou Sabally (who was picked by the Wings) felt forced to enter the draft to start earning a paycheck. Even Boston didn’t have the power to turn the system upside down. Analysts who spoke with them said they didn’t recall any WNBA prospects trying to find their way elsewhere in the draft.

The NWSL eliminated drafts. In men’s sports, salaries are so lucrative that people are willing to sacrifice individual autonomy, but on the women’s side the finances are not there. A five-figure salary isn’t enough to force a star to play in a city that isn’t her choice, for an organization that has no winning culture.

Trade demands are old fashioned for WNBA veterans, and stars usually win. Over the past decade, Kahleah Copper, Elena Delle Donne and Sylvia Fowles have successfully found their way to new teams. Fowles even waited half a season for the right deal. Bueckers would hardly be remarkable if she expressed a desire to play for another team, even if the timing of her request were unique.

“Now that these players can make money on their own and start their brands and start their careers outside of school and off the field, it opens up different avenues,” Carter said. “They just have more options now.”

Should Bueckers play chicken with Dallas after being drafted and hang in there until she’s traded, she could cash in on her corporate sponsorships with the likes of Gatorade, Nike and Bose, even if she doesn’t earn a salary playing basketball. She also has an equity stake in Unrivaled, a new 3×3 women’s basketball league, which could be fruitful. These earnings would more than make up for the projected top pick’s $78,831 contract.

The idea of ​​voluntarily not playing basketball could be difficult for Bueckers, who has suffered many injuries. But if nothing else, the uncertainty of her career should motivate her to find an ideal WNBA landing spot as quickly as possible.

There’s a long road between now and the 2025 draft, plenty of time for Bueckers and her representation to assess Dallas and gauge the market for a trade if the Wings don’t meet her standards. How the Huskies play in 2024-25 could also determine Bueckers’ willingness to spend another season in Storrs. Either way, Bueckers has more control over her destiny than other potential No. 1 picks. If she wants to reject the path laid out for her by four ping-pong balls, she has the power to do so.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

Connecticut Huskies, WNBA, Sports Business, Women’s Basketball

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