Republicans appear poised to win control of the U.S. Senate, while Democrats could capture the House of Representatives as voters across the country cast their ballots on Tuesday.
Early results gave Republicans an edge, as West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice won a seat in that state’s U.S. Senate, according to an Associated Press projection. The seat is now held by Democrat Joe Manchin, who is retiring.
Democrats now control 51 of the 100 seats in the Senate. If Democrats don’t lose any other seats, the Senate would be split 50-50 between the parties. Control would then depend on who wins the White House, since the vice president is the president of the Senate and cuts ties.
However, reaching 50-50 may now be difficult for Democrats. Analysts see Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Bob Casey, D-Pa., Jacky Rosen, D-Nevada and Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisconsin as potential Republican pickups. Michigan is also a factor, where Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat, is retiring.
In California, polls show Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Glendale, expected to win over Republican Steve Garvey for the U.S. Senate seat. Sen. Laphonza Butler, a Democrat, was appointed last year to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
California could play a bigger role in determining who wins the House of Representatives as five races are considered too close to call. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to regain control for the first time since 2019 and make New York’s Hakeem Jeffries the first Black Speaker.
Most independent analysts view the race for control as unpredictable. Fierce battles in New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan and elsewhere will provide early clues about the direction voters might take.
Inside Elections, a nonpartisan group that analyzes House races, considers eight seats now held by Democrats and seven in Republican hands.
A total of 218 seats are needed for a majority, and if neither party secures that many seats by the time California polls close at 8 PM PST, the state has a handful of volatile contests that will prove crucial.
Races in California
Here are the districts in the state to watch:
â–ª 13th. Freshman Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, is in a rematch with former Assemblyman Democrat Adam Gray., D-Merced. Duarte defeated Gray by 564 votes in 2022, one of the closest races in the country. The district includes Merced County and parts of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties, and has more registered Democrats than Republicans.
â–ª 22nd. Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, is again dueling with former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield. Valadao narrowly defeated Salas two years ago. President Joe Biden would have won this district by 13 points in 2020, and the district has many more registered Democrats than Republicans. The district includes parts of Tulare and Kern counties and most of Kings County.
â–ª -27th. Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, continues to survive in this district. In 2020, he won a special election and was the first Republican in the state in years to win in a district represented by a Democrat. Garcia faces George Whitesides, NASA’s former chief of staff during the Obama administration.
â–ª 41st. Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, is considered one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country. He is a powerful figure in Republican circles as chairman of the subcommittee that writes defense spending bills, but that also makes him a target in a congressional district. Calvert faces former federal prosecutor Will Rollins.
â–ª 47th. Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat, left this Orange County seat to run for Senate, where she was defeated by Adam Schiff in the March primary. Porter won for the first time in 2018, defeating a Republican incumbent in a seat the Republican Party had held since its founding in the 1950s. Competing this year are Republican Scott Baugh, an attorney, and state Senator Dave Min, D-Irvine.
