Washington — Former President Donald Trump has now been convicted in New York’s “hush money” criminal trial, which immediately raises many questions and takes the case into uncharted territory, where a judge will have to determine for the first time whether a former president should be jailed on a felony conviction.
Trump was convicted by the jury Thursday at 34, a felony charge is filed for falsifying company records to conceal a $130,000 payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels to buy her silence before the 2016 presidential election. The jury inside Manhattan returned a guilty verdict after a six-week trial with more than twenty witnesses present.
Each of the 34 charges carries a $5,000 fine and four years in prison. But whether Trump will go to prison is another question — one that is up to the judge when sentencing.
When will Trump be convicted?
After the jury’s verdict, the judge will set a sentencing date.
In similar white-collar crime cases, sentencing can occur anywhere from three to eight weeks after conviction, said Dan Horwitz, an attorney who previously prosecuted white-collar cases for the Manhattan District Attorney’s office, adding that it comes down to the court. and the schedules of the parties. But he noted that because the suspect’s status is “somewhat unusual,” it could take longer to obtain a conviction.
What to expect from a conviction
The minimum penalty for falsifying corporate records in the first degree is zero, so Trump could receive probation or conditional discharge, a prison sentence without prison time, or up to four years for each offense. Trump would likely be ordered to serve the prison sentence for each charge concurrently, for a total of up to four years.
“The judge can sentence him to anything between zero and the maximum,” Horwitz said. “So he could sentence him to a period of months in prison, he could sentence him to a period of weeks in prison, he could sentence him to a sentence where, for example, he is obliged to go to prison every weekend for a certain period of time do time and then serve the remainder of the sentence.”
In an analysis of similar cases brought by the Manhattan district attorney’s office, Norm Eisen, who has written a book on Trump’s 2020 election-related federal indictment and served as special counsel in the first impeachment of Trump, found former president, that about 10% were the result of being in prison. But the circumstances surrounding the case make any comparison across the board difficult.
Trump could also be sentenced to house arrest, where he would wear an ankle bracelet and be monitored instead of going to jail. Horwitz suggested that a home confinement sentence, which is a cross between no punishment and a stint in state prison, could be the most likely outcome. It would also satisfy Trump’s unusual security and political situation.
A house arrest would also allow Trump to continue his campaign — albeit virtually — with the ability to hold press conferences and remain active on social media. During the trial, Judge Juan Merchan emphasized the importance of allowing Trump to campaign and exercise his First Amendment rights as he seeks another term in the White House. But it is only part of the equation that the judge must consider in his decision.
What will the judge take into account when sentencing Trump?
There are a number of factors the court may consider in sentencing, including the nature and extent of the conduct, who was injured, whether there were victims and acceptance of responsibility, Horwitz said. Trump has repeatedly denied any guilt in the case.
“Courts will credit a defendant who pleads guilty with accepting responsibility for his conduct, as opposed to not accepting responsibility if he goes to trial and is convicted,” Horwitz added, saying that “the sentence after a process for not accepting responsibility is more severe than it would otherwise have been.”
A defendant’s behavior during the trial may also play a role, i.e. Trump’s repeated violation of Merchan gag order could be a major factor in his conviction. During the trial, Trump was accused more than a dozen times of violating a gag order that prevented him from making public comments about potential witnesses, jurors, attorneys and court staff involved in the case.
Trump’s conviction could also be complicated by the lifelong Secret Service protection afforded to him as a former president. The issue came up during the trial, when the judge found Trump in contempt violating a gag order. Although Trump was hit with multiple fines, the judge said jailing Trump was “the last thing I want to do” because it would have disrupted the process and created challenges for the Secret Service agents charged with protecting of the former president.
Trump’s capture would likely have to involve a rotation of Secret Service agents, and he would have to be isolated from other prisoners. The former president’s food and personal items would likely have to be screened for his protection, among other logistical considerations.
“For all environments around the world, we are studying locations and developing comprehensive and layered protection models that incorporate cutting-edge technology, protective intelligence and advanced security tactics to protect our protected individuals,” said Anthony Guglielmi, chief communications officer for the U.S. Secret Service. in a statement.
No U.S. prison has ever before dealt with the possible capture of a former president. Horwitz said there are mechanisms in place for inmates in protective custody in state prisons and jails, but how the process would actually work remains to be seen.
Where could Trump be imprisoned?
Should Trump be sentenced to a period of house arrest, the former president could carry out the sentence outside New York, such as at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, where New York state would coordinate with the Florida probation department, which would overseeing Trump’s incarceration, Horwitz said.
In the event that Trump is sentenced to prison, the location would depend on the length of his sentence.
If Trump faces more than a year in prison, New York law requires his sentence to be served in a New York correctional facility. But if his sentence is less than a year, he would be served in a New York City prison, such as Rikers Island.
What comes next?
Trump could seek to suspend execution of a sentence pending appeal, meaning he would not have to start serving the sentence until an appeals court makes a decision, which is not unusual in white-collar cases in federal courts in New York, Horwitz said. This move could delay any prison sentence until the election – or even beyond.
In any case, even if a possible prison sentence does pose some hurdles for Trump’s presidential campaign, his conviction won’t stop him from continuing to run — even though he’s behind bars.
Olivia Rinaldi and Jake Rosen contributed reporting.
