October 26 – Fall is usually the time when life calms down in Windham, the busy summer gateway to the Sebago Lakes area.
But this year the city is in the middle of a battle for control of the Maine Legislature.
The race for the seat representing Senate District 26, which includes Windham, Raymond and part of Westbrook, is one of the state’s most expensive contests this year, with each party pouring money into online ads, mailers and a plethora of signs along the way, all aimed at moving an electorate that has historically elected centrist candidates.
Whoever wins battlegrounds like Windham will be able to set or block the state’s agenda for the next two years. The future of the state budget, tax reform, public education, abortion rights and other major issues are all at play.
The parties and outside groups focus on the issues they hope will win supporters. For Republicans here and elsewhere in the state, that means blaming Democrats for the high cost of living and housing, which consistently ranks as voters’ top concern. For Democrats, this means justifying investments in issues like public health and education, while Republicans are portrayed as a threat to abortion access.
This race and others like it, including the House races in the Lakes Region and the Senate races in Auburn, Augusta and Orono, are intensely partisan but are unlikely to be affected by the presidential election, according to political scientists. At the local level, it’s more the quality of the candidates and their ability to connect face-to-face with voters that will determine the winner, they say.
“It’s different than presidential races where people have a more ideological feeling about it,” said James Melcher, a professor of political science at the University of Maine Farmington. “So much of (legislative races) are local and personal.”
As of Oct. 24, party committees and other advocacy groups have spent $4.1 million on state legislative races. Groups that support Democrats have the advantage, investing $2.3 million, compared to nearly $1.7 million spent by Republican groups.
A majority of outside spending, nearly $2.4 million, is focused on the Senate, which the University of Virginia Center for Politics has ranked as one of the nation’s 13 most competitive legislative chambers—one of two chambers currently controlled by Democrats lean toward the incumbent party.
Democrats have a nine-seat majority in the Senate and control 22 seats, compared to 13 for Republicans. Eight of the 35 seats are open; four incumbents from each party are not eligible for re-election.
In the House of Representatives, the Democrats currently have a majority of twelve seats and 79 seats. The Republicans have 67 seats, the independents have two and three seats are still vacant.
Democrats have controlled the House for the past 30 years, with the exception of two years when Paul LePage was governor.
In Senate District 26, incumbent Sen. Timothy Nangle, D-Windham, is being challenged by Kenneth Cianchette, who has owned a local restaurant and concert venue, Erik’s Church, in Windham for nearly seven years. Cianchette said he was registered as a non-enrolled voter when he was recruited to run as a Republican.
Cianchette, 37, says Augusta needs more business people like him. He said he would focus on strengthening the state’s economy, including encouraging more commercial development as a way to ease the property tax burden on homeowners. And he says he’s not interested in social or cultural war issues.
Cianchette said he hopes to clean up a mess — whether it’s the economy, taxes, education or infrastructure. It’s something he’s used to as a restaurant owner, he said.
“We need to go there and not point out figures,” Cianchette said. “We have to go there and solve the problems. It’s no different than being a bar owner. If a customer spills a drink, I don’t wait for the patron to clean it up, I get the mop and clean it myself.
Cianchette told the Press Herald he supports women’s right to choose whether to have an abortion. But in a candidate flier for the Christian Civic League, he opposed adding a woman’s right to abortion to the state constitution. He told the Press Herald he could not commit to that proposal without seeing the actual language.
Nangle, a 58-year-old IT professional, said he is proud of the work Democrats have done in Augusta, including passing voter-mandated 55% of public education funding for the first time, while passing balanced budgets that invest in communities and the state’s so-called rainy day fund with more than $900 million.
“I think we have done a good job of maintaining our fiscal responsibility and continuing to invest in valuable programs and infrastructure that need to be addressed,” Nangle said.
The new Legislature will have to address a structural budget deficit of more than $900 million expected over the next two years, including a $637 million shortfall in the general fund. Such structural differences are not unusual; every analysis over the past decade has shown a structural gap, except for 2022. And the state routinely updates its revenue forecasts, so the size of the gap is likely to change.
Republicans are using the report to accuse Democrats of runaway government spending, but Nangle said such holes are routinely addressed through the budget process.
“I think we need more robust numbers,” Nangle said. “It’s a big number. I’m certainly concerned, but I think it’s too early to eliminate programs.”
Republicans are running ads accusing Democrats of ending a popular program that froze property taxes for seniors. That program was created by Republicans with little fanfare. But it quickly proved untenable for municipalities and the state, as costs skyrocketed. And the program was not limited to people who actually needed the help, but also extended benefits to wealthy seniors.
Lawmakers ended the program last year and expanded existing property tax credit programs to make up the difference. The proposal won the support of Republicans on the Tax Committee and was included in the state budget, which was recommended in a bipartisan 11-1 vote in the Budget Committee.
With the exception of Westbrook, District 26 is evenly divided by party registration, with Republicans, Democrats and unenrolled voters each accounting for about a third of registrations. In Westbrook, however, Democrats have a strong registration advantage, claiming 45% of registered voters. votes, while unenrolled voters make up about 29%, followed by about 20% for Republicans.
WESTBROOK KEY FOR DEMOCRATS
That enrollment advantage in Westbrook has been critical for Democrats in that Senate district.
Nangle won the district with 51% of the vote in 2022, primarily by winning more than 63% of the vote in the Westbrook portion of the district. His margin of victory of 1,400 votes was enough to make up for his losses in the more rural parts of the district, including Windham, where he lost by more than 700 votes.
But Windham himself was Democratic in the last election.
In 2016, Republican Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in Windham, 49% to 41%, in the presidential race, and in 2018, Republican Shawn Moody defeated Democrat Janet Mills, 50% to 44%, in the governor’s race, though Mills went on to win the Blaine House.
But in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden defeated Trump 51% to 46% in the presidential election, and two years later Mills was awarded a second term over former Republican Governor Paul LePage, 53% to 46%.
Nicholas Jacobs, an assistant professor of government at Colby College, said candidates seeking state office in swing districts seek a “delicate balance” of tapping into the energy surrounding the presidential campaign while not letting it shape their candidacy.
“You’re playing a delicate balance where you want the presidential campaign to be on your side to maintain the mobilization so you can rely on the strong base,” Jacobs said. “But you don’t want that mobilization to be so intense that it limits your ability in a swing district to build another brand.”
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