For the first time in more than a decade, Democrats in the key state of Wisconsin have a chance to wrest some legislative control from Republicans thanks to Governor Tony Evers’ new district maps.
Republicans are likely to retain their majority in the Senate in the November elections. But redrawn districts, coupled with retirements, have left nearly two-thirds of Assembly seats open this election cycle, giving Democrats the best chance in a generation to take control of that chamber.
“It’s been too partisan for too long,” said Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein. “I know I’m sick of it, and so are the people of Wisconsin.”
Wisconsin has been a key swing state in the last two presidential races. Donald Trump became the first Republican since Ronald Reagan to win the state in 2016. Joe Biden won the state by just 21,000 votes in 2020 and the state will play a crucial role again this fall.
Despite all the presidential drama, Republicans have dominated state politics for fourteen years, thanks in large part to gerrymandered legislative districts.
Republicans took control of the Senate and Assembly in 2011. Democrats used recall elections to gain a Senate majority for six months in 2012, but otherwise the Republican Party has controlled both houses since then. They have reshaped Wisconsin’s political profile, neutered unions, legalized concealed weapons, scaled back diversity initiatives, tightened voting rules and controlled the state budget with an iron fist.
The balance of power began to shift last year, however, when liberal justices won a majority of seats on the state Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years. By the end of the year, the court invalidated the Republican Party’s designated legislative districts. Republican lawmakers in February adopted new maps that Evers drew, rather than allowing the liberal court to draw districts that could be even worse for them.
Alex Brandon / AP
Republicans ended the 2023-2024 session with a 64-35 lead in the General Assembly. This fall, all 99 seats have increased. Evers’ retirement and redistricting changes leave nearly 60 seats open in November. The Democrats have more than 120 candidates in the running, the most since 2011.
Democrats are focusing on areas Biden won or narrowly lost in 2020, Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer said. Candidates talk to voters about abortion, the economy and concerns about Trump. She declined to estimate how much Democrats will spend on Assembly campaigns, but predicted the more competitive races will cost more than $1 million.
“We cannot afford to wait any longer for a Democratic majority in the Assembly,” Neubauer said. “It will be a program of a magnitude that we have not seen for a long time, or even ever.”
Chamber Chairman Robin Vos Neubauer’s comments were dismissed. “They say this every two years and it never comes true for them,” Vos said.
Republicans have better candidates and voters don’t want Wisconsin to become a “crazy liberal state” like Minnesota, Illinois or Michigan, Vos said. And rising inflation under Biden will drag Democrats down, he said.
The GOP held 22 of the 33 seats in the Senate at the end of last session, with one vacancy. To flip the House, Democrats would need to win 13 of the 16 seats available this fall.
Hesselbein acknowledged that Democrats will not win the majority, but said their time will come in 2026. Democrats have already pledged to spend $7 million on television advertising in five key Senate districts.
Big political spending is nothing new in the swing state of Wisconsin, but the money usually goes to high-profile races, rather than to legislative candidates that few voters recognize outside their districts.
The state Democratic Party raised $16.4 million last year, more than four times as much as the state Republican Party. The $7 million ad buy in the Senate alone amounts to nearly half of the $17 million Democrats spent on all legislative races in the 2022 election cycle.
Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu said Evers clearly aimed to oust the GOP establishment when he made his maps. But he also predicted that inflation will work for the Republicans.
“Every time someone goes to the grocery store,” LeMahieu said, “they are reminded of how expensive things are.”
