Republican David McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey are vying for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat (Capital-Star composite of official/campaign photos)
With control of the U.S. Senate at stake, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which assesses political race preferences, moved the battle between Democratic Senate incumbent Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick to the dreaded ‘toss-up’ -section.
Essentially, Cook’s team now considers the race too close to call, based on the results of recent internal polling commissioned by both campaigns and political ad spending. That’s not great news for Casey, who at one point had a double-digit lead in some outside polls. Cook has rated the race as “lean Democrat” for most of the year. But for McCormick, who is making his second bid for a U.S. Senate seat in the Keystone State, it’s welcome news for a campaign marred by faux pas and an ongoing battle to prove he lives in Pennsylvania, not Connecticut.
“We always knew this race would be extremely expensive and competitive thanks to the out-of-state billionaires who bankroll Connecticut hedge fund CEO David McCormick,” said Casey campaign spokesperson Maddy McDaniel. “Bob Casey is a bipartisan leader who understands Pennsylvania values, and he will earn every vote in the Commonwealth in the final weeks leading up to the election.”
While Casey has a slight lead in both campaigns’ latest internal polls, Cook said it is also within their margins of error. In an apparent attempt to woo split-ticket voters, Casey’s campaign began running ads to highlight where he agreed with former President Donald Trump on Friday, which the Trump campaign derided as a “desperate attempt to Republican candidate”.
Polling averages from Real Clear Politics shows Casey still leading by two points, down from an early eight-point lead. Poll trackers at FiveThirtyEight have done just that Casey is currently four points higher. Both sites average the results of polls taken over time, while Cook attributed their redistricting of the race largely to two recent internal polls.
“Dave McCormick is better than Bob Casey any day,” said McCormick spokesperson Elizabeth Gregory. “It’s time for change, and as a 7th generation Pennsylvanian, combat veteran and PA job creator, Dave McCormick will bring new leadership and fresh ideas to the Senate when Pennsylvania elects him on November 5.”
Both campaigns have sent out fundraising emails urging supporters to donate in light of the new assessment.
In a sign of how important Casey’s seat is to both parties, the battle for the Senate has drawn to Pennsylvania more external spending than any competition this cycleExcept for the presidential race and Senate elections in Ohio, which are seen as must-wins by both parties, according to money-in-politics tracker OpenSecrets. The bulk of that spending, $109 million of the $181 million, has gone to aid McCormick. Unlike traditional campaign donations, there is no limit to how much an individual can give to an outside spending group.
But it’s not all bad news for Casey. This is evident from recent campaign finance reports the incumbent Democrat significantly outranked McCormick. Between early July and late September, Casey raised $16 million, more than doubling McCormick’s $7.8 million haul during the same period.
McCormick, a hedge fund manager, poured more than $4 million of his own money into his campaign during the race.
Casey is seeking re-election for what would be his fourth term. The last Republican to win a Senate election in Pennsylvania was Pat Toomey in 2016.
Currently, Democrats have a narrow 51-49 majority in the US Senate, but that could change in the next election. Democrats are widely expected to lose in West Virginia, where Sen. Joe Manchin, the last Democrat standing in a statewide elected office, is not seeking reelection. Democratic senators in Ohio and Montana are also in close races. If either of them, or Casey, loses, it could tilt the Senate in the Republicans’ favor. If both parties win 50 seats, the deciding vote will go to the next vice president, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Democrat, or Senator JD Vance (R-Ohio).
The Republicans currently have a narrow majority in the House of Representatives. A handful of tight races, also in Pennsylvaniacould also decide control of that room.
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