As the severity of Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury started to become clear on Monday, so did the reality of the Dallas Cowboys in 2024.
A 3-5 franchise with its head coach’s contract about to expire is statistically unlikely to advance to the postseason. The Cowboys appeared headed for elimination before losing Prescott in this weekend’s NFC East matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. Facing what team owner Jerry Jones called a “likely” injured reserve designation for Prescott, they appear even closer.
There are front offices in the NFL that would look at this combination of factors and consider themselves lucky to receive this news right before the league’s trade deadline.
They would trade one or two talented players for assets near the end of his contract to better position the franchise to get over the playoff hump next season.
And yet, NFL front offices knew that this is not the way Jones, who is also the team’s general manager, typically operates. In the 48 hours between Prescott’s injury and the NFL trade deadline, few expected a change of heart in Dallas.
“I feel like it’s not Jerry’s place to sell,” an NFC executive texted Monday afternoon. “We don’t think they will act.”
Jones himself quickly confirmed this on Tuesday morning.
“We’re not selling,” Jones said on Dallas radio station 105.3 The Fan. “We don’t buy and sell.”
An hour later, the Cowboys had traded a 2025 fourth-round draft pick to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for receiver Jonathan Mingo and a 2025 seventh-round pick.
Perhaps Dallas will prove to be a better home for the 2023 second-round pick, who has played in 24 games for three head coaches, while the Panthers’ current staff is increasingly uninterested in bringing Mingo into their offense. Or maybe the league is right to mock the Cowboys for sending their fourth-round pick (offset slightly by Carolina’s seventh) to a receiver who has struggled with drops.
Either way, the talent acquisition suggests a level of belief that this team’s performance does not validate. Jones’ hope, as usual, is that the best possible outcome will unfold.
“We’ve really tightened that window now with our record, as far as our goals of getting to the playoffs and having a team that can really compete at the highest level,” Jones said. “We added to that by losing our quarterback. So we’re going to have to do something that resembles a storybook-like scenario.
“I’ve been part of some of those and it can happen.”
How much did Cowboys really spend on Jonathan Mingo?
Player-by-pick trades sometimes feel too opaque to review.
But one way to classify what the Cowboys just traded away is to examine the production of players they drafted in the fourth round.
Since the Cowboys transitioned from their Tony Romo era to their Prescott era in 2016, they have drafted 12 players in the fourth round.
This year six will start, divided over four teams. Prescott (2016) and Class of 2022 tight end Jake Ferguson are two of the Cowboys’ more effective contributors; Class of 2018 defensive end Dorance Armstrong and Class of 2020 center Tyler Biadasz have helped anchor the Washington Commanders’ 7-2 start. Class of 2018 tight end Dalton Schultz is in his sixth season starting overall and second on the Houston Texans. And Class of 2019 running back Tony Pollard is the Tennessee Titans’ leading running back.
Five of the six players who did not play spent time on injured reserve while with the Cowboys.
Still, the 50% hit rate in the fourth round is above expectations, a second NFC executive told Yahoo Sports.
The executive spoke more generally about league-wide transactions Tuesday night, noting that acquisitions shouldn’t be measured solely by the immediate value received in return. The ‘replacement costs’, or the costs of replacing the talent of the departed player, also matter.
The executive’s research on draft success in the NFL found that the league had hits about 67% of the time, with that percentage dropping by 12 to 15% in each round. With that framework, which is indicative but hardly conclusive, the fourth-round picks have a roughly 30% chance of succeeding.
The Cowboys found multi-year starters in 50% of their picks.
So while Mingo’s measurables as a second-round pick are more favorable than most fourth-round picks the Cowboys could make and his short-term value remains cheaper than most free agents, justifying this deal could be a confirmation requiring the question: is there a better than 50% chance that Mingo will succeed in Dallas?
Mingo’s shaky tenure in Carolina, combined with the Cowboys’ looming uncertainty, raises doubts.
What are Cowboys working on after Mingo sputtered in Carolina?
A league source with knowledge of Mingo’s Panthers days described the Mississippi product as a versatile receiver who can block well, line up in the slot or outside and gain yards after the catch. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound receiver ran a 4.46-yard 40-yard dash to create a bucket of measurables that got teams excited. His speed, they thought, was enough to get deep.
But Mingo wasn’t consistently a major threat — or any threat at all — in his year and a half with the Panthers. Last season only 12.9% of his targets were deep and this year only 7.7%. Yet Mingo caught fewer passes each year than all his teammates he regularly targeted; his catch rate of 53% last year dropped to 46.2% this year. Mingo’s chances decreased accordingly, as he was only on the field for 56% of snaps this year after reaching 89% last.
“Bad hands and easy catches look difficult,” the assistant coach said. “Poor body control and I don’t have that [a] great sense of route running and being open at the top of the route to create separation. That said, he did open a few and wasn’t targeted
“It’s really the staff’s lack of confidence in the opportunities he has been given.”
In 24 games with 19 starts, Mingo caught 55 of 111 targets for 539 receiving yards and no touchdowns.
According to Pro Football Reference, he dropped six passes. Three of his targets turned into interceptions.
The source thought finding a rhythm could boost the confidence Mingo had lost, perhaps strengthening his catching point and giving him the confidence to secure catches standing and running rather than from the air. Mingo should benefit from improved quarterback play, if not this year, then next year in Prescott. He should benefit from the defense shifting its focus to Pro Bowl receiver CeeDee Lamb. But when the Cowboys acquire head coach Mike McCarthy after his contract expires in January, Mingo will prepare to report to his fifth head coach in 20 months.
Will a new coach and play-caller believe Mingo is a fit for the system? The curator already saw the costs that a change in the coaching regime could entail this year. And the Cowboys, by acquiring talent before deciding on their coach and system, spent a fourth-round pick to risk this possibility of misalignment again. (To be fair, the Cowboys will likely have additional mid-round compensatory picks after losing several players in free agency last year.)
In the very short term, Jones will celebrate his commitment to buying rather than selling, and backup quarterback Cooper Rush will enter a divisional matchup with another potential target.
Jones can keep his storybook hopes alive for another day.
“Too many times when this thing has looked dark, I’ve seen the positives,” Jones said Sunday after the Cowboys’ fifth loss of the season. “Personally, I am far from dismayed about our team, about this year.
“Not upset. I’m worried. Should be worried.”
