Nevada state lawmakers and guests gather for Governor Joe Lombardo’s 2023 State of the State. (Photo: Richard Bednarski for Nevada Current)
Barring a “red wave” that no one is predicting, Republicans will once again be in the minority of both houses of the Nevada Legislature when it convenes in just over three months.
The question is whether Democratic majorities will merely be large enough to thwart Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s agenda — as happened during the 2023 legislative session — or large enough to effectively bypass Lombardo and implement a Democratic agenda of his own.
All 42 parliamentary seats and half of the 21 seats in the Senate are up for re-election this year.
Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo has made blocking a Democratic supermajority a priority because, if Democrats manage to secure two-thirds of the seats in both the Assembly and Senate, they would override each of his gubernatorial vetoes, of which there are dozens been, could be put aside. .
Lombardo endorsed a series of candidates early in the election cycle, and political action committees working with him have funneled hundreds of thousands of dollars in the most competitive races. “Protect the veto” is a rallying cry among many of these candidates.
For their part, Democrats have largely downplayed the topic of supermajorities, with candidates saying they are focusing on “kitchen table issues” and emphasizing their commitment to working in a bipartisan manner.
Democrats currently have the bare minimum for a supermajority in the General Assembly: 28 of 42 seats. They are one seat short in the Senate.
Nevada State Assembly
In the General Assembly, Republicans could break the supermajority by successfully defending their existing fourteen seats and flipping one Democratic seat.
Their best chances to turn a district red could be two open seats in Southern Nevada: Assembly District 29, which pits Democrat Joe Dalia and Republican Annette Dawson Owens, and Assembly District 35, with Republican Rebecca Edgeworth and Democrat Sharifa Wahab.
Several Democratic incumbents are also seen as vulnerable and offer Republicans other options to increase their numbers in the House:
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Democratic Assemblywoman Elaine Marzola in District 21 is facing a challenge from Republican April Arndt.
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Democratic Assemblywoman Selena La Rue Hatch in District 25 is facing a challenge from Republican Diana Sande.
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Democratic Assemblywoman Shea Backus in District 37 is facing a challenge from Republican David Brog.
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Democratic Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui in District 41 is facing a challenge from Republican Rafael Arroyo.
On their side, Democrats appear to have little wiggle room to expand the existing margin of their supermajority. A clear opportunity lies in Assembly District 4, an open seat currently represented by Republican Richard McArthur, who chose to run for Senate but was defeated in the primary. That Southern Nevada district faces Republican Lisa Cole and Democrat Ryan Hampton.
Democrats also have their sights set on unseating Republican Assemblywoman Heidi Kasama in Assembly District 2. Democrat Ron Nelsen is challenging the incumbent in that race.
Nevada State Senate
Nevada state senators serve staggered four-year terms. That means only 10 of the 21 seats are on the ballot this year.
Democrats could secure a supermajority in the House by keeping the six seats they currently control and flipping one of Republicans’ four seats.
The districts considered to have the most potential for a red-to-blue flip are Senate District 15 in Northern Nevada and Senate District 5 in Southern Nevada. Both districts have seen their boundary lines shift significantly since the last vote.
SD15 is currently represented by Republican Senator Heidi Seevers O’Gara (formerly Seevers Gansert), who chose not to seek re-election. Democratic lawmaker Angie Taylor and Republican Mike Ginsberg are vying to replace her.
SD5 has an incumbent: Republican Senator Carrie Buck is being challenged by Democrat Jennifer Atlas.
Republicans also have a competitive candidate in Senate District 11, where Democratic state Sen. Dallas Harris is being challenged by Republican Lori Rogich. The district, which covers part of the southwestern portion of the Las Vegas Valley, is heavily Democratic but not insurmountable, especially for a well-financed and politically connected candidate like Rogich.
What may complicate matters for Harris is that she is among a group of Democrats who have lost the support of the Culinary Union.
Culinary – often described as politically powerful and a key organizer for Democrats – came up for discussion with state lawmakers voting in favor of legislation ending public health requirements placed on the gaming industry during the pandemic. Senate Bill 441 of the 2023 Legislative Session is sometimes called the “Room Cleaning Act” because one of its provisions was a requirement for daily cleaning of resort rooms.
Before the June primaries, Culinary announced this would happen not approve 18 Democratic lawmakers they had endorsed in previous election cycles for their vote on the House Cleanup Act. That group included Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro, Assembly Speaker Steve Yeager, and Senator Rochelle Nguyen, who represents the union tried to drive away during the district’s primaries. (Nguyen won anyway, defeating Geo Hughes, a nurse and daughter of Culinary’s former secretary-treasurer Geoconda Argüello-Kline.)
Regardless, all eighteen candidates have advanced beyond their primaries. As for the general: these candidates are again not supported by Culinair. However, it was not until SD11 that Culinary endorsed a competitor.
The Culinary has yet to announce its legislative priorities for the 2025 session.
