It is extremely unlikely that a team below .500 will be needed to fill the bowl field.
Of the 134 teams at the highest level of college football, more than 100 still have a path to a bowl game with two weeks left in the regular season. Of those 103 schools, 63 teams have six or more wins and are already bowl eligible.
There are spots for 82 teams in the 2024 postseason. Twelve teams will participate in the expanded College Football Playoff and there will be 35 non-playoff bowls. Considering the number of teams that have already qualified for a bowl game and the teams that are one win away, it’s entirely possible that some six-win teams could stay out of the postseason entirely.
Here’s a look at where each conference’s hopefuls stand entering Week 13.
AAC
Bowling: Army (9-0), Tulane (8-2), Memphis (9-2), Eastern Carolina (6-4)
One win needed: South Florida (5-5), UTSA (5-5), North Texas (5-5)
The AAC is the only conference that doesn’t have to worry about who plays in the title game. Army and Tulane meet on December 6. East Carolina has won three in a row after a coaching change to become bowl eligible, while South Florida still has games against Tulsa and Rice to reach a bowl. UTSA plays Temple in Week 13 before a season-ending loss to Army.
ACC
Bowling: SMU (9-1), Miami (9-1), Clemson (8-2), Syracuse (7-3), Pitt (7-3), Duke (7-3), Louisville (6-4), Georgia Technology (6-4), North Carolina (6-4)
Needs one: Virginia (5-5), Virginia Tech (5-5), NC State (5-5), Boston College (5-5), Cal (5-5)
Win from: Wakebos (4-6)
As many as 15 teams can make a bowl game in the ACC, although Wake Forest needs wins at Miami and Duke to make a bowl game. That’s probably not going to happen. Virginia and Virginia Tech could meet in the final week of the regular season, with bowl eligibility on the line for one or both of them.
Big 12
Bowling: BYU (9-1), Colorado (8-2), Arizona State (8-2), Iowa State (8-2), Kansas State (7-3), Baylor (6-4), TCU ( 6-4), Texas Tech (6-4)
Needs one: West Virginia (5-5), Cincinnati (5-5)
Win from: Kansas (4-6), Houston (4-6), UCF (4-6), Arizona (4-6), Utah (4-6)
The only team in the 16-team conference already eliminated from bowl contention is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 0-7 in league play. Neither UCF nor Utah can make a bowl game; they meet on Black Friday. Kansas needs wins over Colorado and Baylor after beating previously undefeated BYU on Saturday night.
Big Ten
Bowling: Oregon (11-0), Indiana (10-0), Ohio State (9-1), Penn State (9-1), Illinois (7-3), Iowa (6-4), Minnesota (6-4) , Rutgers (6-4), Washington (6-5)
Needs one: Wisconsin (5-5), Michigan (5-5), USC (5-5), Nebraska (5-5)
Win from: UCLA (4-6), Michigan State (4-6), Northwestern (4-6), Maryland (4-6)
It is theoretically possible for all 17 teams listed above to get six wins, as none of the four to six teams have played each other in the last two weeks. However, that is very unlikely. For example, UCLA should beat USC and Fresno State, while the Trojans beat Notre Dame in the final week of the season. Nebraska has also lost nine straight games with bowl eligibility on the line, playing Wisconsin and Iowa in the last two weeks.
USA Conference
Bowling: Sam Houston State (8-2), Liberty (7-2), Jacksonville State (7-3), Western Kentucky (7-3)
Win from: Louisiana Tech (4-6)
Louisiana Tech kept its minor bowl hopes alive with a 12-7 win at Western Kentucky on Saturday night. On Saturday, however, the Bulldogs travel to Arkansas.
Independents
Bowling: Notre Dame (9-1), UConn (7-3)
Yes, UConn is already bowl eligible. The Huskies have games at Syracuse and UMass to end the season and should finish 8-4.
MAC
Bowling: Ohio (7-3), Toledo (7-3), Miami Ohio (6-4), Bowling Green (6-4), Buffalo (6-4), Northern Illinois (6-4)
Needs one: Western Michigan (5-5), Eastern Michigan (5-5)
You guessed it: Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan meet in the final week of the season. The Eagles play Buffalo on Wednesday, a day after the Broncos visit Central Michigan.
Mountain West
Bowling: Boise State (9-1), UNLV (8-2), Colorado State (7-3), San Jose State (6-4)
Needs one: Fresno State (5-5), New Mexico (5-6)
In addition to playing UCLA, Fresno State also has Colorado State. Can it take a win from any of these games? New Mexico upset Washington State on Saturday and heads into Week 13 before a season-ending trip to Hawaii with a bowl berth on the line.
Pac 12
Go bowling: Washington State (8-2)
Win from: Oregon State (4-6)
The path to a bowl goes up a mountain for the Beavers. Oregon State hosts Washington State in Week 13 before a trip to Boise State to end the season.
SEC
Bowling: Texas (9-1), Texas A&M (8-2), Georgia (8-2), Alabama (8-2), Tennessee (8-2), Ole Miss (8-2), South Carolina (7-3) ), Missouri (7-3), LSU (6-4), Vanderbilt (6-4)
Needs one: Arkansas (5-5), Florida (5-5), Oklahoma (5-5)
Win from: Auburn (4-6), Kentucky (4-6)
Mississippi State is currently the only team in the SEC eliminated from bowl contention. That will likely change in Week 13. Kentucky is at Texas and Auburn plays Texas A&M. Oklahoma hosts Alabama and visits LSU to also close out the season. The Sooners could be in real danger of going 5-7.
Sun belt
Bowling: Louisiana (8-2), James Madison (8-2), Marshall (7-3), Georgia Southern (6-4), Texas State (6-4), Arkansas State (6-4)
Needs one: Coastal Carolina (5-5), South Alabama (5-5), Louisiana-Monroe (5-5)
Win from: Appalachian State (4-5), Old Dominion (4-6)
Appalachian State had a game canceled earlier this season due to Hurricane Helene. The Mountaineers need to beat both James Madison and Georgia Southern to reach six wins. Old Dominion has Marshall and Arkansas State on its schedule.
