The Yankees were rumored to be interested in signing Christian Walker to fill their void at first base, but Walker agreed to a three-year, $60 million deal with the Astros on Friday.
They didn’t wait long to find a ‘replacement’.
According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Goldschmidt will get a one-year contract worth $12.5 million to leave the Cardinals for New York.
Let’s take a look at what the Yankees are getting in Goldschmidt, and whether he’s still a viable fantasy option.
What kind of season did Goldschmidt have in 2024?
First, let’s remind everyone that Goldschmidt had been one of the most productive hitters in baseball going into the 2024 season, and had done so for a decade for the Diamondbacks and Cardinals. He has finished third or higher in the MVP voting four times and took home the award in 2021. In his fourteen seasons, he has hit 362 home runs, forged an OPS of .892, won four Gold Gloves and will be enshrined in Cooperstown if he sticks around. the cleats on.
But unfortunately, 2024 was not the best season for Goldschmidt. In fact, it was quite easily his worst, hitting .245/.304/.414. His .716 OPS was the lowest of his career, and his OPS+ of 98 marked the first time he posted a below-average mark in that metric (100 is average). Simply put, there’s a reason why Goldschmidt entered the free agent market and didn’t come close to Walker’s despite his impressive accolades.
What went wrong with Goldschmidt last year?
Goldschmidt has been a patient hitter throughout his career, as he walked 12.7 percent of his plate appearances; well above the average of 8.4 percent in that time frame. That patience didn’t show up in 2024, however, as he faced just 47 free passes in 654 plate appearances; a walk rate of 7.2 percent, which placed him in the bottom 38th percentile of qualified hitters.
Goldschmidt has always been a strikeout player, and 2024 was no exception. He fanned in 26.5 percent of his plate appearances, and he swung and missed an unhealthy 27.4 percent of the time. It’s one thing not to put the ball into play, but if you don’t put the ball into play and you don’t generate free passes, it’s a completely different problem.
Many hitters Goldschmidt’s age are starting to struggle with speed, but at least in 2024 it was the slower stuff that caused him problems; in this case the sweeper and switches. Against the former, Goldschmidt averaged just .182 with a .309 slugging percentage, and against the latter those numbers dropped to .179 and .286.
Are there reasons to believe he could be better in 2025 based on the numbers?
Despite these ugly numbers, the answer is a resounding yes.
When Goldschmidt made contact, he hit the ball hard. It was among the leaders in hard-hit percentage, as it qualified for that type of contact 49.6 percent of the time. He was in the 82nd percentile for average exit speed of 90 mph, and he scored well above average in barrel speed (10.2 percent), expected slugging (0.450), and expected weight at the basis, or xwOBA (0.329). ). He’s still generating solid bat rate, so despite his disappointing results last summer, there doesn’t appear to be a decline in skill, or at least not a rapid decline.
It is also worth mentioning that Goldschmidt was much better in the second half of the season. In late June, he was hitting an abhorrent .225/.294/.361 across a sample size of 80 games. As of July 1, that number improved to .269/.310/.474. That’s still nowhere near the numbers we’ve grown to, except for the Texas State product, but it’s clearly a huge improvement over the last 74 games.
What’s more, Goldschmidt has remained a stolen base threat even as he leaves his prime. Relatively speaking, of course. He stole eleven bases for the second time in a row last season, and he wasn’t caught on any of his theft attempts last year. It’s not an elite number, but it doesn’t hurt to get double-digit stolen bases from your first baseman.
Where does Goldschmidt expect to score in the Yankees’ lineup?
It’s clear that Goldschmidt is going to play every day, even if his contract doesn’t make him one of the highest-paid first basemen and not even close. The question is where he will score in New York’s starting nine. That will be important for fantasy, as the difference between being able to drive in or drive in players like Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton compared to hitting the bottom of a good – but not great – lineup in New York. He should hit in the middle of the order against lefties, but there’s a chance he’ll hit a little later against righties to start the year; something to keep in mind as RBI and runs scored are important numbers.
Are you betting on a Goldschmidt bounceback?
I am.
Now, I’m not betting on Goldschmidt bouncing back to his MVP levels. I think that would be foolish for a player who turns 38 next October. But my bet is that he will be substantially better than his 2024 campaign, which is admittedly faint praise. He simply made too much hard contact last year to believe he’s “done” as a relevant player, and there’s too much of a track record as a patient hitter to think he won’t be able to significantly improve the on-base. percentage in addition to the batting average and slugging mark.
Add in the fitness and the home park, and I’m willing to bet Goldschmidt will be a top 8-12 first baseman in 2025, and likely someone who ultimately ends up as a Top 100 player.
