What’s more fun than having doubts from NFL coaches? Nothing, that’s what. So let’s do it here every week. Today: Go for the win or play for overtime?
The Scenario: Down 17-10 at Tennessee, New England’s Drake Maye made one of the best plays of the year, a run-out touchdown to pull within one point of the Titans:
Spectacular, right? But now the Patriots and head coach Jerod Mayo were faced with a choice: score an extra point and go to overtime, or go for two and hopefully leave Nashville with an upset win?
Which way are you going? And make a quick decision, because New England had no timeouts, and neither should you.
The argument for an extra point: Kicking was definitely the safer game. Maye said after the game that he was exhausted from running around on that last play. “Shoot, I was just trying to catch my breath,” he said. ‘I couldn’t even think about it [a 2-point conversion]. I think when you look back on it, it’s easy to say. We were out there for so long on such a high-intensity ride.”
Not only that, New England’s run game was absolutely miserable. Outside of Maye’s struggles, the Patriots had 15 total rushing yards on Sunday. No, that’s not a typo. FIFTEEN. Combine that with a depleted offensive line, and you at least give everyone a chance to catch their breath before overtime.
Analytics aren’t necessarily in the Patriots’ favor here. FiveThirtyEight calls the decision to go for 2 while trailing by one point a toss-up. Teams with bad offenses convert about 40 percent of their two-point attempts, and you have to keep in mind that this number is even lower for bad offenses. And exhausted offenses.
The reason to go for 2: Tennessee was also exhausted and also dealing with the fact that they had just given up a potential game-losing drive to a rookie who had played all five games. Once you’ve knocked the opponent down, you don’t give him a chance to catch his breath. That’s more of a motivational, vibrational approach than a statistical approach, that’s true, but sometimes you go by your head and sometimes you go by your gut.
The decision: The Patriots opted for the extra point and overtime. Mayo defended his decision after the match, perhaps listening too much to the critics.
“Earlier in the season we went for two, but we didn’t get it. You get criticism. Kick the.” [extra point] here and you will be criticized. I will always do what I think is best for the team. We can talk about analytics and we use those things, but at the same time there is also a flow to the game.”
So he started with flow about flowcharts. How would that have turned out for him?
The result: In overtime, Tennessee took the ball and burned nearly 75 percent of the clock in a drive that led to a field goal. New England got the ball back with just over 2:30 remaining, which would have necessitated a second straight all-or-nothing drive from Maye. This time he was not up to the task; After just three plays, he threw a pass into double coverage that was easily intercepted, ending the game.
This wasn’t exactly Godzilla vs. Kong; this was one-win Tennessee versus two-win New England. The only thing these two teams played for was pride. The Patriots will have that huge touchdown play to remember, but that could end up being one of the few fond memories of this season.
So. Your call. Should New England have gone for 1 and overtime, or 2 and the win?
