WASHINGTON – The Human Rights Campaign, the largest LGBTQ rights group in the United States, is launching a $15 million pledge to help the Democratic president Joe Biden defeat Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 elections.
The spending blitz, first shared with NBC News, will cover the six major battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. The group says it will include paid advertising, hiring, field campaigns and events in those states poised to decide who wins the presidency and Congress.
And after analyzing the numbers, the organization sees warning signs in the form of soft support for Biden in the 2024 electorate.
HRC estimates there will be 75 million “equality voters” this year — who vote based on support for LGBTQ rights — up from 62 million in 2020 and 52 million in 2016. But the group says a third of them are lockouts. for Biden. In the six key swing states, hundreds of thousands are “at risk of not voting,” and another group of hundreds of thousands of voters are what HRC calls “double undecideds,” who, according to data, are likely to defect to a third party. HRC shared with NBC News.
HRC chairman Kelley Robinson said those undecided voters could make or break Biden’s re-election bid.
“This group of voters, if you break them down by state, can actually make a difference. In a state like Arizona, where President Biden won the election by about 10,000 votes, you have 1.4 million pro-equality voters,” Robinson said in an interview. “This is a powerful constituency, a powerful community. It’s our job to make sure they have the resources they need to show up at the polls. So we’re going to knock on doors, make phone calls and involve every member we need to get our people to come.”
The election has a lot at stake for the future of national policy when it comes to lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender Americans. During his first term, Biden advanced the cause by codifying same-sex marriage nationwide, allowing transgender people to serve in the military and directing agencies to support LGBTQ equality.
Trump, meanwhile, has denounced “left-wing gender madness” and vowed to roll back government programs supporting trans rights and punish doctors who provide gender-affirming care to minors. He has encouraged a growing and well-organized conservative backlash against some parts of the pro-LGBTQ movement, with schools, women’s sports and public restrooms becoming fronts in the culture war. And the Supreme Court, already less sympathetic to LGBTQ rights after Trump appointed three justices during his presidential term, could become more conservative if he is able to fill a new vacancy.
Conservative backlash has contributed to a decline in support for LGBTQ rights ahead of the 2024 election. A major survey from the Public Religion Research Institute found that support for LGBTQ rights fell slightly last year, marking the first year-over-year decline in three measures after consistent increases. Support for same-sex marriage and non-discrimination policies for LGBTQ people declined, and increased for allowing religious-based denials of service.
“This moment feels so important, not just for this election, but really what it means for the future of our community,” Robinson said. “We are seeing an incredible response in states across the country to the progress we have made… led by an opposition that does not want us to have the rights we have today.”
Robinson vowed that HRC will not appease opponents of trans rights: “The same horrible things they say about trans people today, they said about lesbian and gay people 20 years ago.”
Of the “equality voters” it identified, HRC said 62% are under the age of 40, 50% non-white and 70% female. The risks of Biden defection – not voting or voting for a third party – are “particularly pronounced” among those cohorts, according to HRC. That finding is consistent with recent surveys showing Biden struggling with young and non-white voters, a key reason why he is trailing Trump in many national and swing-state polls in head-to-head matchups.
HRC said an estimated 2,200 LGBTQ people turn 18 every day, providing opportunities to register new voters. Gen Z voters in particular need to see more of the president, Robinson said.
“I think what they’re looking for is presidential involvement, government involvement, and really involvement from every elected official,” she said. “So I’m optimistic. But what we see around young people, we see that Generation Z is engaged in a conversation about what it takes to make our nation better, and every candidate should be excited about that as well. I think the job is to engage them between now and Election Day and talk to them to get them involved in the process.”
Robinson added that among the down-vote candidates, “some of them are young and dynamic and making history — people like Sarah McBride in Delaware, who could be the first trans congresswoman.”
The HRC president said part of his efforts will be to convince voters not to support third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has said he supports gay marriage but criticizes gender-affirming care for young people.
“We need to make sure that people know very clearly that every vote that is not for Joe Biden is a vote for Donald Trump. Full stop,” she said, adding that Trump “is not someone who stands up for any of our communities, and we are very clear about the threat he poses, not just to equality but to democracy in general.”
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
