How the high-octane Pacers could push Celtics in the East Finals originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
The Indiana Pacers pulled off a historic shooting performance in a Game 7 upset against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Sunday and now head to Boston to open the Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday night.
The Celtics know full well what the Pacers are capable of after playing them five games in the regular season this season. But even with a ridiculous 67.1 percent on Sunday afternoon, the Pacers still had to fend off a feverish Knicks rally that ran out of gas after Jalen Brunson broke his left hand.
The Pacers finished 17 games behind the Celtics in the East and narrowly avoided being in the play-in tournament at the end of the season. Still, their offensive firepower is undeniable. The Pacers would have set an NBA record for offensive rating this season at 120.5 had Boston not finished ahead of them at 122.2.
Indiana, after upsetting both Milwaukee and New York to open the postseason, has the best offensive rating in the playoffs at 121.7 (Boston is second at 118.9). The question is whether the defense can hold up against a Boston team that has flexed its two-way muscles (the Celtics’ +12.8 net rating is the best in the postseason and 4.2 points ahead of the team that won the closest).
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How can the Pacers put pressure on the Celtics in the East finals?
Haliburton battled a cocktail of injuries, including an ankle sprain and a hamstring strain, that cost him a total of 13 regular-season games. He picked it up again in the postseason.
In seven games against the Knicks, Haliburton averaged 21.3 points while shooting 53.8 percent from the floor and 43.9 percent beyond the three-point arc. He added seven assists against just 1.7 turnovers in 33.6 minutes per game.
His scoring average dropped to 17.7 points in Indy’s three losses to the Knicks (down from 24.0 in the wins). His efficiency was there in the losses, but he just couldn’t match the output. The Celtics need to determine how much effort they want to put into stopping Haliburton’s offense, rather than eliminating his supporting cast.
A look at Boston’s top defensemen versus Haliburton during the regular season:
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White and Holiday won the bulk of the job and held up quite well. The midseason addition of Pascal Siakam will limit how much the Celtics can necessarily use their wings like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to take reps on Haliburton.
The Nesmith Revenge Series
In the summer of 2022, after falling short of their NBA Finals title goals against the Warriors, the Celtics made Aaron Nesmith a centerpiece in a deal to acquire Malcolm Brogdon. It turns out Brogdon wasn’t the missing piece to get Boston over the hump. And how ironic: now the Celtics should get another chance to return to the title stage through Nesmith.
Ultimately, the Celtics were able to move Brogdon as part of a package to acquire Holiday. Still, Nesmith is a revelation in Indiana.
Because he had the runway to spread his wings, Nesmith has blossomed into a player with the potential to impact both sides of the ball. The Pacers were able to put him on Brunson with confidence last round, and in Game 7 on Sunday, Nesmith finished with 19 points on perfect 8-of-8 shooting over 28 minutes.
It feels inevitable that Nesmith will emerge as some sort of villain in this series. He plays with reckless abandon, and while it was endearing that he bumped into everything when he was in green, now it will be maddening for Celtics fans when he plays ping pong against the Jays. Nesmith will undoubtedly find motivation against his former team.
Combine that with TJ McConnell being a longtime Celtics antagonist and you can feel your blood pressure rising before this series even turns.
Tthe tempo game
The Celtics will be in Circle City for the Indy 500 weekend. And how appropriate is that? The Pacers will see green flags during this series and will look to make this series a track meet.
The Pacers are atop the playoff standings with an average of 87.8 shots per game, or 6.6 more than Boston’s playoff average. We know how much Joe Mazzulla obsesses over the margins, including winning the shot battle. The Pacers, despite that pace, are also excellent at taking care of the basketball and will make it difficult for Boston to gain that shot margin.
The question is whether the Pacers can defend consistently enough to stay in a race with a Boston team that has more weapons than Indy has seen against injury-plagued teams in Milwaukee and New York.
Final thoughts
The Celtics will be challenged in new ways in this series, but it’s hard not to feel like clinching the No. 6 seed in the Eastern finals is an advantageous draw.
Boston absolutely needs to play better than it has at times over the past two rounds, especially after giving both the Heat and Cavs a brief shock by dropping two Game 2s at home. The Pacers’ core still lacks playoff experience, and Boston must lean on all of its deep postseason runs.
The other wild card here: When will Kristaps Porzingis return during the East Finals? And is he healthy enough to help the Celtics accelerate to the winner’s circle?
