By Tim Reid
(Reuters) – When Donald Trump Indicted just over a year ago for paying hush money to a porn star, it has boosted the Republican presidential campaign. He left his rivals ahead of the nomination for the White House and gained a lead that he never relinquished.
Trump went on trial in New York on Monday, seven months before Americans go to the polls on November 5 to elect a president. The history-making trial, the first against a former U.S. president, could reinvigorate Trump’s presidential bid, some analysts and political strategists said.
Although polls show that about a third of Republican voters would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime, the hush money trial is considered by many legal experts to be the weakest of the four criminal cases he faces.
Trump has used the looming trial to reinforce a central campaign message that his supporters have embraced: He is the victim of a two-tier justice system that favors Democrats and discriminates against Republicans, and that the Democratic incumbent president Joe Biden tries to knock him out of the race.
Trump is using the trial to energize his supporters and — as legal bills mount — raise more money from them to take on a much better-financed Biden. A hung jury or an acquittal would give the former president a major political victory.
“This is a shame,” Trump said before entering a New York state courtroom on Monday. “This is political persecution.”
As jury selection began, his campaign sent a fundraising text message to supporters saying, “Biden’s trial against me has begun. They are after YOU – and I am the only thing standing in their way.”
The New York case is not a federal lawsuit — it was brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg — so the Biden administration is not involved. The Justice Department says it is acting without political bias in the two federal prosecutions Trump faces.
Rick Hasen, a law professor at the UCLA School of Law and a critic of Trump’s efforts to overturn his 2020 election defeat, called the hush money charges against Trump “so minor” that they risk diminishing the importance of the more serious cases he faces faced to undermine. including state and federal charges related to his alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 result.
Hasen said once voters actually look at the details of this case, many will look at it skeptically.
“And for his supporters, Trump has created a no-lose situation,” Hasen said. “He will say that a conviction will be proof that the deep state and the justice system are taking action against him. And if he is acquitted, he can claim victory.”
Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said the lawsuit was a “political attack” on Trump and claimed it was “election interference.” Cheung called the case “a show trial straight out of the Stalinist Soviet Union of the 1930s” and added that voters will support Trump “as he fights against the weaponization and abuse of our justice system.”
‘THIS CASE WILL HELP TRUMP’
After Trump was indicted by a New York grand jury in March 2023, many Republicans began rallying around him, seeing the indictment as unfair. Reuters/Ipsos polls showed his lead over his then-main rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, increasing from 14 percentage points to 26 percentage points. More than $13 million was raised in the week after the indictment, his campaign said.
New York state prosecutors accuse Trump of falsifying records to cover up a $130,000 payment in the final days of the 2016 presidential campaign to buy porn star Stormy Daniels’ silence about a 2006 sexual encounter she in his own words.
Trump has denied having sex with Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford. He pleaded not guilty last year to 34 charges of falsifying company records.
The case is the first of four criminal charges Trump faces. It’s unclear whether the other three will begin before the Nov. 5 election.
“This case will help Trump, there’s no doubt about it,” said John Feehery, a Republican strategist. He endorsed DeSantis in the race for the Republican nomination, but says he will vote for Trump in November.
“It’s the weakest of the four cases, it’s downright partisan, most Republicans see that as do some independents,” Feehery said. “Independent voters like fair play. This prosecution is not fair game.”
In New York, falsifying company information is a crime. Bragg claims Trump committed a crime by falsifying that data to further or conceal another crime – by violating election interference or tax laws.
Other analysts said they suspected the case could have little or no impact on the Trump-Biden rematch, which is expected to be extremely close.
“The details of this case are not as damning as the other cases. This election is a toss-up,” said Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
The presidential election could be decided by independents in close battles in a handful of swing states. Doug Heye, a Republican strategist who does not support Trump, said if a small number of Republicans and independents turn against the former president over the trial — especially if he is convicted — it could cost him the election.
“That’s a real problem for Trump,” Heye said.
(Reporting by Tim Reid; Editing by Ross Colvin and Jonathan Oatis)
