It’s time for a pair of presidential debates between two unpopular candidates who most Americans wish weren’t running for the highest office in the land.
In a ratatat exchange on social media on Wednesday, Joe Biden and Donald Trump agreed to participate in two debates on June 27, hosted by CNN, and on September 10, hosted by ABC.
“Make my day, friend,” Biden said in a video, challenging his predecessor and rival to a high-stakes showdown. Trump, who had insisted for months that he would debate Biden “anytime, anywhere,” quickly accepted the offer: “Let’s get ready for Rumble!!!”
The settlement shocked a general election campaign that was beginning to feel stagnant. And if their plans hold, Americans will be treated to a presidential showdown much sooner than usual — before either candidate has formally accepted his party’s nomination.
“The candidates realize the value of the debates, especially given their age,” said Aaron Kall, debate director at the University of Michigan. “They have to show that they have the stamina to debate for 90 minutes or two hours to reassure the country.”
The decision to align at least twice before the November election reflects a careful calculation by both candidates, who believe televised confrontations will help magnify the other’s weaknesses.
Trump has repeatedly portrayed the 81-year-old president as greatly diminished. At his rallies, Trump, just four years younger than the president, often mocks Biden as confused in an exaggerated impersonation that draws laughter and applause.
But Democrats argue that Biden can more easily draw a contrast with Trump and remind voters why they rejected his Republican rival in 2020.
“We need voters to see Trump 2024 for themselves,” Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg wrote Thursday, “a candidate far more extreme and dangerous; whose actions are much more erratic, wild, impulsive and disturbing.”
Biden is clearly looking for a chance to change the trajectory of the race, which has remained largely unchanged despite the start of Trump’s criminal trial in New York, a positive economic outlook and tens of millions of dollars in ads highlighting the president’s record is touted and Trump is blamed. for the wave of unpopular abortion bans.
As both campaigns prepare for an extremely close battle in November, a series of recent New York Times/Siena College surveys show Biden trailing Trump in five of six critical battleground states.
Widespread dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy, immigration and Israel’s war in Gaza have damaged the president’s standing among key Democratic constituencies, particularly among young people.
Even in a polarized media environment, presidential debates remain the “SuperBowl” of politics, Kall said, providing candidates with what will likely be the most prominent platform of the election cycle. For both Biden and Trump, the events carry high risk, but also potentially high reward.
“Everyone expects the elections to be decided by six states. Those states will be decided by thousands or tens of thousands of votes,” he said. “So a debate with 70 to 80 million people watching could certainly change enough votes to matter.”
In 2020, the first showdown between Biden and Trump drew 73 million viewers, according to Nielsen ratings, while Trump’s debate against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 drew 84 million viewers.
Many more Americans will not watch the events live, but will pay attention to the reactions on social media.
“Many people who don’t tune in to the actual debate will probably know what the breakthrough moments of the debate are,” said Yanna Krupnikov, a professor of communications and media at the University of Michigan. “What happens next will be very, very important.”
Americans are arguably more familiar with Biden and Trump than any other pair of presidential challengers in American history. Voters can still tune in to hear what the president and former president have to say on important issues, such as the war between Israel and Hamas. But Emily Van Duyn, an associate professor of communications at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign who specializes in political communications, expects most will be watching to see how the candidates perform.
“For the most part, it will be an assessment of: Can these guys keep it up?” said Van Duyn.
Democrats say Biden must deliver an energetic performance that will reassure voters unsure whether the oldest president in American history is ready for a second term.
“The debate is the hurdle he has to overcome,” David Axelrod, former senior adviser to Barack Obama, said on CNN. “He needs to dispel that idea in that debate.”
Voters tend to express fewer concerns about the 77-year-old former president’s age, but Democrats believe a debate could highlight Trump’s propensity for verbal slip-ups and gaffes.
It is also likely that he will be pressured in his criminal cases. By then, the hush money case in Manhattan should be over. Polls show that a significant portion of Republican and independent voters would be uncomfortable voting for a candidate who has been convicted of a crime.
The format presents different challenges for each candidate.
Trump feeds off the energy of a crowd. CNN has said the debate will take place at the network’s studios in Atlanta without an audience, which was a condition of the Biden campaign.
Trump turned voters off in 2020 when he repeatedly heckled and interrupted Biden during their first debate. “He needs to appeal to voters who may like his policies but not his temperament,” Kall said.
Biden, meanwhile, has built a political brand around defying expectations, as he did earlier this year with a rousing State of the Union address and in the 2020 debates.
. “People will say he can’t do it, it’s too late at night,” Kall said. “As long as he doesn’t fall or forget something, people will say he did a good job.”
The terms of the campaign deal, which bypasses the nonpartisan commission that has organized presidential debates for more than three decades, were intended to guarantee a head-to-head showdown between Biden and Trump.
In a tweetRobert Kennedy Jr., the independent presidential candidate who is unlikely to qualify for the CNN debate, accused the frontrunners of “conspiring” to exclude him. “Keeping viable candidates off the debate stage undermines democracy,” he said.
While kicking off debate season provides an opportunity for an early reset, it also makes the events less “existential” for the campaigns, Pod Save America co-host Tommy Vietor said while discussing the development on his podcast with the former White House. press secretary Jen Psaki.
After the September debate, there are still weeks to recover from a possible underperformance or embarrassing blunder. While the momentum of strong turnout could fade before Election Day, early voting means millions of Americans have already cast their ballots.
Psaki said the back and forth between Biden and Trump this week was part of a new approach. While Biden led with sophisticated calls for democracy and civility four years ago, he is now playing up humor as a way to tweak his famously thin-skinned opponent.
“It’s figuring out how to land the best needles,” Psaki said.
In a sign of Biden’s more combative approach, the president opened public negotiations on the general election debate on Wednesday, the only day a week when Trump is not confined to a New York courtroom. “I hear you’re off on Wednesday,” Biden said in the video, suggesting a date for their confrontation. His campaign is now selling merchandise that says, “Free on Wednesday.”
On Thursday, Biden’s reelection campaign also announced it had accepted an offer from CBS News to participate in a vice presidential debate and proposed two dates that fall after the Republican national convention in July. Trump has yet to choose his running mate, but a carousel of Republican candidates have openly auditioned for the role.
With just weeks before the first debate, both candidates have a shortened timeline to prepare.
Neither has participated in a debate since their last confrontation in 2020. This year, Trump and Biden declined to participate in the Republican primaries, saying the incumbent faced only nominal challenges.
In an MSNBC interview this week, Mitt Romney, the Utah senator and 2012 Republican presidential nominee, emphasized that the debates were still important to voters and predicted that a “vast audience” would tune in to the spectacle.
As far as they would see, Romney joked, “the image that comes to mind is those two old guys from the Muppets.”
