President Joe Biden vowed last week that he would make another attempt to pass border security legislation that was scrapped during negotiations over his foreign aid package.
It was news to those involved in the first round of negotiations on the bill.
Talks about reviving the bipartisan border compromise that senators struck in February have been non-existent in Washington. And despite the president’s proclamation, both administration officials and immigration policy experts say it is highly unlikely that any legislative momentum for border security will build between now and November.
“They pulled a rabbit out of a hat on Ukraine, but there’s no chance they’re going to get anything out of Mike Johnson’s House on border security,” said an immigration attorney familiar with the White House’s thinking. House, granting him anonymity to discuss private conversations with the government. civil servants. ‘They have known that since December, when they realized that they had to count the votes in the House of Representatives. There is no chance of legislation on this, and they know it. It is a rhetorical attitude.”
Biden’s comments last week underscored the administration’s desire to try to turn the politics of the border — long an albatross for Democrats — into something more beneficial. After former President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers rejected the compromise bill, the White House tried to lay the blame for the crisis at their feet. The president has openly considered the possibility of taking executive action and, as he did when signing the foreign aid bill, has spoken of the need to revise the legislation.
“I proposed, negotiated and passed the strongest border security bill this country has ever seen,” he said last week, speaking about its exclusion from the foreign aid package. “It was twofold. It should have been included in this bill, and I am committed to getting it done for the American people.”
But in reality, there has been no behind-the-scenes fighting from the White House to restart talks, in part because the White House believes the migration crisis has temporarily stabilized, with the number of illegal border crossings falling back to 137,000 in March.
While the conversations may be inactive at the moment, that doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t be restarted. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has a number of moderate members of his party up for re-election this year, some of whom are pushing for him to bring up the bill again.
“We’re not leaving the border alone, we’re going to get back to it,” Schumer said in an interview this week, echoing the president.
But another attempt at Senate action would face the same hurdles as last time: Trump’s opposition and the bleak prospects in a Republican-led House.
“My colleagues said it wasn’t good enough. And then our nominee for president said, I don’t want you to do anything because this is my best issue for November,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell complained last week.
That view, in turn, has led the White House to consider new executive actions, including restrictions on asylum. Administration officials have held a number of meetings about the new policy this week, prompting rumors that the announcements could come soon. But five people close to the government, who were granted anonymity to discuss private conversations with government officials, say the timeline remains murky. The White House is weighing both the political optics of moving forward unilaterally and whether some of the actions it takes would pass legal muster.
“I think everything is in pencil,” said a former government official. “There’s nothing in Sharpie.”
The administration has prepared an executive action that would include using part of the Immigration and Nationality Act to ban migrants from seeking asylum between U.S. ports of entry. Like the border legislation, the directive would likely be tied to a trigger, which would come into effect after a certain number of illegal border crossings had occurred, the five people close to the government said. The order would also make it more difficult for migrants to pass the initial screening for seeking asylum, as well as create ways to quickly deport those who do not meet the increased asylum standards.
Border crossings fell 50 percent in January and have remained stable since, creating belief among administration officials that the president has more room to address the issue. Increased enforcement on the Mexican side of the border, which began after Biden administration officials traveled to meet colleagues in December, has helped ease some of the political pressure in the US.
Although it has been reported that the White House would take the measures in late April, the administration is still expected to roll out the new policy when border numbers rise again.
“Because otherwise it would be like a tree falling in the forest without anyone hearing it,” said another advocate familiar with the White House thinking. “Unless something happens at the border, people don’t pay much attention.”
In addition to fighting political pressure on the right, some Democrats have also expressed concern that Biden has not done enough to contrast Trump on immigration. New polling has shown that voters favor a balanced approach to the border — a mix of border security measures and actions that protect Dreamers and other immigrants who have been in the United States for extended periods of time. Along those lines, government officials are discussing possible actions they can take for undocumented immigrants who have lived in the United States for a long time. One idea floated among administration officials is opening up access to the cancellation program to people who have lived in the U.S. for more than a decade and have family members who would “suffer” if they were deported. But the biggest debate is over whether or not Biden should provide temporary legal status and work permits to undocumented immigrants in the U.S. who are married to U.S. citizens, an estimated 1.1 million people.
Immigration groups have pushed the White House to make the move, suggesting it could energize Democrats ahead of the November election, as former President Barack Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program did in June 2012. But there are also concerns among some administration officials that this could lead to more political backlash on an already difficult issue for the president, especially if the border numbers rise again.
“That’s where the conversation is probably going to be most profound: ‘Okay, is there a political consequence to this, or should we wait for a second term?’” said one former administration official. “It’s not like this idea has an expiration date. He could do this or look at it in the future where the political space could be wider.”
Burgess Everett contributed to this report.
