The coalition of Democratic groups that pushed No Labels out of the 2024 battle is now turning its sights on the issue Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Billboards, funded by the Democratic National Committee, appear outside Kennedy events. Trackers paid for by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, follow him with cameras. And another super PAC, formed exclusively to counter third-party threats, is testing messages on Kennedy in partnership with Future Forward, the flagship pro-Biden super PAC.
It is a widespread effort among Democratic donors and strategists to neutralize Kennedy’s third-party threat to the president Joe Biden‘s re-election.
And Biden’s allies are now considering going even further, as a coalition of major Democratic groups privately discusses how to run a negative advertising campaign against Kennedy.
The talks are preliminary, and the size and scope of the campaign – and even whether it will continue – remain unclear. But should it get the green light, the effort would likely be led by Future Forward; Clear Choice, another super PAC created to stop third-party candidates; and American Bridge, another Democratic super PAC, according to two people involved in the effort who are not authorized to discuss it publicly.
So far, Clear Choice PAC has dropped a nominal $30,000 on digital ads attacking Kennedy. The discussion is whether we should go bigger.
There is significant concern that Kennedy and other third-party candidates “pose a real threat to the Republic by aiding Trump win,” said Matt Bennett, president of Third Way, a center-left group involved in efforts to take down Kennedy.
Bennett, along with several other outside groups, tried to pressure No Labels, another group eyeing a third-party run, to drop out of the 2024 contest. Now they turn their attention to Kennedy. “One of our biggest concerns is making sure that this subset of voters has an absolutely positive understanding of who this person is and who he is not,” Bennett said.
“He’s not his father. His grades reflect his father’s popularity,” Bennett said. “He’s a right-wing idiot. People really don’t understand that yet.”
The offensive reflects concerns among Democrats about Kennedy siphoning votes from Biden — but also the opportunity they see in his potential to wound former President Donald Trump. Kennedy, whose legendary surname has given him strong name recognition even among under-information voters, is a volatile force in the 2024 election. Public and private polls have shown Kennedy, an environmentalist turned anti-vaccine activist, drawing support from both Biden and Trump.
Biden last month called on members of the extended Kennedy clan for help, appearing alongside more than a dozen Kennedys who backed him over the family member whose campaign they have largely shunned.
The push to undermine Kennedy — as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein and academic Cornel West, both of whom are also making third-party bids — comes from Democrats who say they are motivated by the 2000 and 2016 elections, when third-party candidates played a role in Al Gore and Hillary Clinton’s respective losses.
Part of the reason these outside Democratic groups have not yet been more aggressive in their attacks on Kennedy is due to the uncertainty of where he will appear on the ballot and the staying power of his appeal in the polls. Kennedy has so far qualified for elections in Michigan, California and Utah, according to his campaign. His campaign also said he has collected enough signatures in seven other states, including Nevada, North Carolina, Nebraska and New Hampshire.
“It has to be done in a very targeted way,” Bennett added. “We need to convince soft Biden voters that these candidates are not safe places to park their votes, so to do that we are going to focus on a very limited number of voters in swing states.”
So far, the campaign against Kennedy has largely focused on investigations and legal challenges. The Democratic National Committee hired experienced staffers to coordinate their pushback against Kennedy, especially through media stories about Kennedy. They have also filed complaints with the Federal Election Commission against Kennedy’s allies. The outside groups, such as Clear Choice PAC and American Bridge, delve into opposition research and reporting. MoveOn, an organization with 10 million members, has transferred staff from its No Labels-focused effort to Kennedy and hired additional staff.
For his part, Kennedy campaign press secretary Stefanie Spear said in a statement: “Of course, Mr. Kennedy draws from both Presidents Biden and Trump, but what the two parties fail to recognize is his strong pull from the ranks of the independent and disaffected voters. Our path to victory lies in activating the millions of people alienated from the political process.”
Recent public polls tell a complicated story about Kennedy’s appeal. In some surveys, Kennedy is getting more support from Biden, such as in an NPR/Maris College poll released this week, when Biden’s lead disappeared when third-party candidates were added to the survey.
Kennedy mainly appeals to so-called ‘double haters’, voters who dislike both Trump and Biden. This group covers all demographics, but is especially pronounced among young voters. A poll of voters under 30, commissioned by Snapchat, found that “although Kennedy’s poll numbers are currently in the low double digits, about half of registered voters are open to the prospect of voting for him,” said John Della Volpe, the pollster who conducted the survey and specializes in Gen Z voters.
“That’s a dangerous place to be,” Della Volpe said. “That said, that group is also soft. Once young people know how much Biden has delivered for them, the call for Kennedy will disappear.”
Based on internal research, several Democrats noted that some of the strongest messaging frames for dual-hate voters rely on reminding them that “a vote for RFK is a vote for Donald Trump,” said Pete Maysmith, senior vice president of campaigns at League of Conservation Voters, who signed a letter from other environmental groups calling on Kennedy to drop out of the race.
“For those voters who are not yet paying full attention, we need to make it clear that voting for Kennedy is throwing your vote away,” Maysmith added. “What we see so far is that when voters hear even a little bit about his extreme views, they are much less interested.”
But in other polls, Kennedy receives more support from Trump. An NBC poll released last month showed Trump leading Biden by two points in a head-to-head matchup. But when third-party candidates were added, Biden regained the lead by 2 points. Kennedy received 13 percentage points in that poll.
That volatility could provide an opening for Biden’s allies as they consider their third-party strategy.
“I would prefer a Trump-Biden rematch with as few spoiler candidates as possible, but that said, we’re going to play on the playing field we have and we’re going to turn every disadvantage into an advantage, and that’s true. does exist for RFK,” said Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge. “The numbers move when they learn something about it [Kennedy’s] conspiracy cases.”
The distributed polls coincided with a wave of attacks on Kennedy by Trump. Trump himself acknowledged that Kennedy “hurts [us] both” in a radio interview last month, while his campaign has issued press releases with headlines like: “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. praised Obama as ‘good’ president” and “RFK Jr: ‘People in the Red State are more likely to kill You.'”
But the possibility that Kennedy could hurt Trump more than Biden has also raised new concerns among Democrats about “complacency,” Bennett said.
“The conversation is, ‘well, if it hurts Trump more, he’s clearly freaking out about it, now everyone can breathe easier,’ and I don’t think that’s right,” Bennett said. “[Third party candidates] must remain a top priority, and it is important that people understand that.”
