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Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average is on track to surpass its previous peak of $49,452 from February 2022.
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Past data shows that the most intense phase of the bull cycle unfolds after this average surpasses its previous peak.
Bitcoin’s price for {{BTC}} reached bullish territory above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) in October and reached record highs above $73,000 last month.
Now the average, a crucial barometer of long-term trends, is also rising rapidly, in a sign of strong bullish momentum, and looks set to surpass its previous peak of $49,452 in February 2022. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at $66,200, with the 200-day average at $47,909.
That’s notable for traders, as past data shows that the most intense phase of the bullish cycle unfolds after the average surpasses its previous peak and reaches new lifetime highs.
In early November 2020, six months after the third halving, Bitcoin’s 200-day SMA rose to a then-high above $10,320. By mid-April 2021, bitcoin had risen 4.5 times to $63,800.
The cryptocurrency rose more than 2,000% to nearly $20,000 in 12 months after the average hit new highs in December 2016, or five months after the second halving. A similar rapid rally occurred after the average rose to a new peak in November 2012, around the time of the first halving.
As always, past data does not guarantee future results.
That said, some features of recent cycles have been repeated to a T. For example, BTC’s bear market peaked in November 2022 and prices rose in the following months, which fits the historical pattern of bottoming out to another rally to start. before the halving. Bitcoin blockchain implemented the fourth mining reward halving on Saturday, reducing the coin emission per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Most analysts believe that rising sovereign debt concerns will eventually force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates quickly, keeping risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, on an upward trend.
However, in the short term, prices may fall due to profit-taking and bond market volatility.
