If the betting market is a good indicator, we could move on to the Boston Celtics-Denver Nuggets NBA Finals showdown in the NBA postseason.
The NBA regular season ended Sunday and there is a clear favorite in each conference. Boston is well ahead of every Eastern Conference team in betting odds to make the finals. And while the Western Conference is more competitive than the East, the Nuggets are significant favorites to emerge from the West.
Gamblers love the two favorites. The two teams that have bet the most money on the NBA champion at BetMGM are the Nuggets at 27.4% and the Celtics at 26%. More than half of the money goes to those two teams and that is reflected in the odds.
If the first few rounds of the playoffs are this predictable, at least we’d have a good matchup at the end.
Odds to win the NBA finals
As the NBA postseason begins, there is a clear divide between the top two and everyone else. Here are the BetMGM odds to win the championship, with all teams shorter than 35 to 1:
Celtics +180
Gold Nuggets +300
Hair clippers +1200
Bucks +1300
Thunder +1600
Outsiders +1800
76ers +1800
Timberwolves +2000
Suns +2000
The only surprise might be that the Nuggets are heavy favorites without being the No. 1 seed. Denver blew a big lead and lost to the San Antonio Spurs on Friday, ruining a chance at the top seed. The Thunder got the top seed, although you wouldn’t guess that based on the odds. Denver is the second seed in the West.
The fact that the Celtics are at the top is much less of a surprise.
Celtics, Nuggets look strong
Boston went 64-18 and was 14 games ahead of every other team in the East. The -175 odds to win the East and make the NBA Finals are startling before the playoffs even start, but it’s hard to make an argument for anyone else. The Milwaukee Bucks should have been contenders, but they stumbled badly late in the season and there is a major problem with Giannis Antetokounmpo’s calf. The 76ers could theoretically challenge the Celtics, but they would still have to bow out of the play-in tournament. If Boston doesn’t at least make the finals, it will be a major disappointment.
Denver will face a bigger challenge, though its odds of winning the West are only +140. The Thunder (+700 to win the West) seem a bit disrespectful in the odds considering they’ve had a great season and are the #1 seed. But the Nuggets won the championship last season, have NBA MVP runaway favorite Nikola Jokic, and Oklahoma City still has the stigma of being the youngest team to get a number 1 seed. Experience usually matters in the playoffs, although the Thunder’s talent is undeniable.
Perhaps the NBA playoffs will be formal and the defending champion Nuggets will leave the West to take on the Celtics, who have been undeniably the best and deepest team in the NBA all season. Many bettors wouldn’t mind that conclusion to the season.
