Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
In preparation for the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our predicted playoff field as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP selection committee’s rankings will advance to the playoffs, with seven at-large teams filling out the rest of the field. Who will lift the national championship trophy on January 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: #25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 5 Alabama, No. 4 Texas, No. 3 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia
No. 1 Ohio State
Last season in 100 words or less
The Buckeyes lost to Michigan for the third straight season. That loss tells the story of 2023 and sets the tone for 2024. The 30-24 loss in Ann Arbor robbed Ohio State of a shot at both the Big Ten title and the College Football Playoff.
Last season’s starting QB, Kyle McCord, was traded for the Cotton Bowl vs. Missouri, and the Buckeyes started Devin Brown before he was injured in the 14-3 loss. WR Marvin Harrison Jr. also sat out that game after a season that made him a Heisman finalist.
Why Ohio State Can Make the Playoffs
We’re not sure it’s possible to overstate the pressure on Ohio State and head coach Ryan Day heading into the 2024 season. After a deeply unsatisfactory 2023, Ohio State has primed itself for a national title run. And after the Buckeyes won the first four-team playoff, why can’t they win the first 12-team playoff?
The ineffectiveness of Brown and Lincoln Kienholz against the Tigers in the Cotton Bowl led to Ohio State adding former Kansas State QB Will Howard through the transfer portal. Howard is a strong dual-threat QB when healthy, and he’s a potential Heisman candidate in new OSU offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense.
Howard isn’t the only big offensive acquisition from the transfer portal, either. The Buckeyes acquired former Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins in the offseason. Judkins hasn’t been as good in 2023 as he was as a freshman, but he and returning RB TreVeyon Henderson should be the best rushing duo in the country.
Replacing Harrison is tough — he was, after all, the best receiver in college football. But Emeka Egbuka is back for another season, and redshirt freshman Jeremiah Smith could step into the mix right away. Smith was the No. 1 recruit in the class of 2024.
We’ve established that the offense has to be good. The defense has to be very, very good. Ohio State gave up just 11.2 points per game in 2023, and there won’t be much, if any, decline in 2024. Edge rushers Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau are back for another season after combining for 11.5 sacks last year.
The secondary is bolstered by the addition of former Alabama defensive back Caleb Downs. He played for Nick Saban as a freshman — no small feat — and will start immediately for the Buckeyes. CB Denzel Burke could have been a first-round pick had he declared for the 2024 NFL Draft, but he’s back, too, along with Lathan Ransom and former Ole Miss transfer Davison Igbinosun. This could be the best secondary in college football.
Key player
The Buckeyes have a backfield combination of players whose best seasons were as freshmen. Judkins ran for 1,567 yards as a freshman in 2022, and Henderson rushed for 1,248 and 15 TDs as a freshman in 2021.
Henderson missed time in 2023 with an ankle injury and still rushed for 926 yards on 156 carries in 10 games. He would be the best running back on over 100 teams in college football. If Ohio State leans more on the run game in 2024, it’s not impossible for the Buckeyes to have two 1,000-yard rushers. Even if Judkins emerges as the best running back, Henderson will be a critical piece for Ohio State in 2024.
Biggest game
As we said in the Michigan piece, we’re not going to pretend that the annual rivalry game isn’t the biggest of the season. But it has taken on greater importance for Day and the Buckeyes. After three straight losses — including one to an interim coach in 2023 — Ohio State needs to get past Michigan’s roadblock. And what better time than 2024? The game is in Columbus and comes after three incredibly winnable games against Purdue, Northwestern, and Indiana.
Ohio State also has trips to Oregon and Penn State on the schedule this season. But don’t kid yourself. Beating Michigan is a must.
