As president Joe Biden While Democrats are still trying to reassure their supporters after his much-criticized debate performance on Thursday, they remain concerned about his standing as a presidential candidate in November. They have few realistic options available to them, at least in terms of party lines and historical precedent.
Those concerned about Biden as the Democratic nominee have a number of alternative, albeit unlikely, scenarios to consider: One involves Biden voluntarily stepping aside, the other, and by far the least likely, involves a last-minute effort to defeat him at the convention by winning over pledged delegates he won in the nomination battle, who are technically only obligated to support him on the basis of “good conscience” under party rules.
According to Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and an expert on the party’s nomination process, challenges could arise for the presumptive nominee, but there are significant hurdles.
“It’s been tried, and it usually fails,” said Kamarck, a longtime member of the Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee.
“You need a strong and compelling alternative to Biden, and right now there isn’t one,” she added.
It would be clearer if Biden were to step down voluntarily, but he has given no sign that he is considering doing so.
For some Democrats, the idea that Biden won’t be the nominee remains a ridiculous hypothetical. “It’s typical Democratic overreaction,” said Bill DeMora, the convention director for the Ohio Democratic Party.
Should delegates support the candidate they have committed to?
Under the Democratic presidential nomination process, candidates are entitled to a share of the delegates in each state, roughly in proportion to the votes they received in that state’s primary or caucus. The candidate who receives a majority of the delegate votes wins the party’s nomination.
In 2024, Biden won all but one of the primaries or caucuses, and the vast majority of the delegates at stake in those contests. Those delegates are considered “pledged” to Biden, meaning they were selected to fill delegate positions that Biden won as a result of his voting performance in various primaries and caucuses. Under party rules, however, such a pledge is more of a strong expectation than an ironclad, legal obligation.
DNC rules encourage delegates to vote for the candidate they have pledged to support, but do not specifically require them to do so. Instead, the rules state, “All delegates to the National Convention who have pledged themselves to a presidential candidate must honestly reflect the feelings of those who elected them.”
In other words, the thousands of delegates Biden won in the primaries are only bound by their conscience to actually vote for Biden when it comes time to select a nominee. But it would be unprecedented if delegates were to overwhelmingly support a candidate other than the one they swore they would support.
One feature of the party rules that makes a delegate revolt against the presumptive nominee unlikely is that the candidate has the right to review his list of delegates in each state and make changes to it, thus ensuring that delegate slots are filled by supporters loyal to the candidate.
What is the origin of the ‘good conscience’ rule?
The DNC adopted the language of “good conscience” in 1982, following several rounds of reforms to the presidential nominating process.
In 1980, the Democratic National Convention adopted a rule requiring delegates to vote for the candidate they had chosen to support. The rule was an attempt by supporters of then-President Jimmy Carter to bolster his re-election campaign against the insurgent candidacy of Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. Kennedy supporters called the measure “the robot rule” because it did not allow delegates to use their own judgment in casting their votes at the convention.
Following Carter’s defeat by Republican Ronald Reagan, the party enacted additional reforms in 1982 in an effort led by then-North Carolina Governor Jim Hunt. The Hunt Commission abolished the “robot rule” and replaced it with the language of “good conscience,” which gave the party less control over its pledged delegates but maintained the expectation that they would follow the will of primary and caucus voters in their states. The commission also created unpledged delegate positions for certain party leaders and elected officials, positions informally called “superdelegates.”
What happens to the delegates promised to Biden if he withdraws?
The rules of the 2024 convention do not directly address what happens if the candidate with the most pledged delegates withdraws before the convention. However, there is a common understanding that if a candidate withdraws, the delegates who pledged to that candidate are free to support another candidate of their choice. That is how Democrats interpreted the rules when Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota ended his presidential primary in March; Phillips said he would encourage delegates he had won to vote for Biden instead.
“There are not always rules for things that are unlikely to happen, like the leading candidate withdrawing,” said Hans Noel, an associate professor in Georgetown University’s Department of Public Administration.
Under these circumstances, a withdrawal speech would be likely in which a candidate “may or may not indicate his preference for someone to replace him,” Kamarck said. “That would not bind the delegates, but would obviously carry a lot of weight.”
What happens if Biden withdraws after the convention?
If a Democratic nominee withdraws after the convention, the party lines are clearer. If the nominee resigns, dies or is otherwise unable to run for president, the DNC — in consultation with the Democratic leadership in Congress and the Democratic Governors Association — fills the vacancy. But withdrawing from the race after the convention could pose other challenges. For starters, Democrats could face ballot access deadlines similar to those in Ohio, which prompted the party to nominate Biden virtually before the convention, though Ohio lawmakers moved their deadline later. Moreover, withdrawing after the convention would give any new nominee very little time to organize a campaign, while the Biden whining could drag on for another two months.
Is there a historical precedent for a last-minute change in the party’s candidacy?
There is no exact precedent for replacing a presidential candidate or presumptive nominee. The last president to voluntarily choose not to run for another term was Lyndon Johnson, who withdrew from the 1968 race after the primaries had begun but before he officially received the nomination. Then-Vice President Hubert Humphrey did not run in the primaries but was still elected by a large majority of the convention delegates. The backlash over the process that resulted in Humphrey’s nomination prompted the party to change its rules, resulting in the current primary system that rewards candidates based on their performance on primary and caucus ballots.
Four years later, Democratic vice presidential nominee Thomas Eagleton of Missouri withdrew from the ticket after revealing that he had once undergone psychiatric treatment. The DNC met the following week and held a vote to select Sargent Shriver, the brother-in-law of the late President John F. Kennedy, as his replacement.
Both Presidents, Gerald Ford, a Republican, and Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, faced major challenges at their conventions when they ran for new terms in 1976 and 1980 respectively, although those challenges occurred much earlier in the calendar. In both elections, the president won the nomination but lost in the general election.
Could all this change before the congress?
Party nominating procedures are set by the state party, which has the freedom to change its rules at any time. In the weeks before the convention, the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee could vote to implement new rules governing what happens if a leading nominee withdraws before the convention — or, if it chooses, to tie delegates more closely to the presumptive nominee.
“The RNC and the DNC both write their own rules,” Noel said. “And they can change them if they see fit.”
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Associated Press editor Christina A. Cassidy in Atlanta contributed to this report.
