ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — A Chinese-backed pipeline that would turn Niger into an oil-exporting country is threatened by an internal security crisis and a diplomatic dispute with neighboring Benin, both stemming from last year’s coup that destroyed the Western overthrew the African government. the democratic government of the country.
The 1,930 kilometer pipeline runs from the Chinese-built Agadem oil field in Niger to the port of Cotonou in Benin. It was aimed at helping oil-rich but landlocked Niger achieve a nearly fivefold increase in oil production through a $400 million deal signed in April with China’s state oil company.
But this has stalled due to several problems, including the diplomatic dispute with Benin that led to the closure of the pipeline last week. There was also an attack this week by local rebel group Patriotic Liberation Front, which claimed to have disabled part of the pipeline and is threatening more attacks if the $400 million deal with China is not canceled.
The group, led by Salah Mahmoud, a former rebel leader, took up arms after Niger’s junta came to power, posing further security threats to the country, which is already facing a deadly security crisis.
Analysts say the crises could further hit Niger, one of the world’s poorest countries, which finances most of its budget with now-withheld external aid in the aftermath of the coup.
Niger currently has a local refining capacity of just 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) for local demand, while the pipeline is expected to export up to 90,000 barrels per day – a feat that officials and analysts say would help the country boost its revenues and emerge from the crisis to come. sanctions against coups that had isolated the country from regional neighbors and damaged its economy and population.
“It’s a completely messy situation and the only way to reach a resolution is for both governments to address the issues head-on and resolve them,” said Ryan Cummings, director of Africa-focused security consultancy Signal Risk.
One of the biggest concerns is what impact the stalled pipeline operation could have on Niger’s overall economic growth. The World Bank had forecast that the West African country’s economy would recover and grow the fastest in Africa this year, at a pace of 6.9%, with oil exports providing a major boost.
Diplomatic tensions with Benin date back to July, when Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum was deposed in a coup, leading to the West African neighbors closing their borders with Niger, and in the formation of the so-called local liberation group that is now threatened more attacks on the country. the oil project.
Benin, along with other neighbors, has reopened its border with Niger, but Nigerien officials have refused to open theirs, accusing Benin of harboring French troops who pose a threat to the country after Niger severed military ties with France. That has led Benin President Patrice Talon to make oil exports through his port conditional on the reopening of the border.
Both countries are losing economically, with Benin also missing out on millions of dollars in transit costs. Observers say the standoff is exacerbating regional tensions since the coup, which followed a series of other military takeovers. It has pitted Niger against the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which usually mediates on such issues.
With Niger leaning towards Russia in its diplomatic shift and Benin aligning itself with France and the West African bloc, China has sought to intervene and resolve the standoff and benefit from its investments in the project.
But even Beijing’s efforts, which resulted in the first oil extraction from the Agadem field in May, collapsed as the diplomatic row escalated further.
Benin this week convicted and jailed three of the five Nigerien oil workers it recently arrested at the port of Beninise after they crossed the border and were accused of “using falsified computer data.” Their arrests prompted Niger to close the pipeline last week, with a senior government official claiming their oil is “being stolen by other people.”
A major concern for Niger’s military government at this stage is “whether they have the required fiscal capacity to continue paying for public services” after the coup, leaving the country unable to meet some of its financial obligations, such as debt repayment and infrastructure financing. Cummings said.
Niger’s junta “must definitely be more careful in dealing with the country’s financial position” amid the ongoing crises, he said.
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Virgile Ahissou contributed to this report from Cotonou, Benin.
