The betting market has done a pretty good job of tipping off draft picks long before they actually happen.
So we have to wonder what keen bettors know about the Washington Commanders’ plans with the second overall pick of the NFL Draft.
As of Thursday afternoon, the odds for the second pick had LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels close to being a lock to be selected by the Commanders. Daniels’ odds at BetMGM were -400. The implied odds of -400 – where you bet $400 to win just $100 – put Daniels at 80% over the Commanders.
Then suddenly, as is the case with draft pick odds, they changed in a dramatic way.
Since Thursday evening, Daniels has been less strong and Drake Maye is back in play for the second pick, if the odds are to be believed.
Jayden Daniels’ chances are changing
Daniels’ chances of finishing second overall saw a big jump Thursday night. He went from -400 to -145. There was another smaller move on Friday. As of Friday afternoon, Daniels is at -125 and second overall.
Daniels is still the favorite for Washington, but Maye’s odds changed along with Daniels’ move.
Maye was +220 on Thursday afternoon (bet $100 to win $220), then +150 on Thursday evening and +100 on Friday. That’s not far behind Daniels, with less than a week to go before the NFL Draft.
Draft odds are among the most volatile betting markets. Sportsbooks do not have inside information. Oddsmakers typically move numbers widely when they receive bets from respected, keen gamblers.
The draft odds are moving toward Maye going second overall, but that might not mean the North Carolina quarterback heads to Washington next Thursday. But it’s worth mentioning.
Will Drake Maye finish second overall?
Maye was one of the few quarterbacks to be picked apart leading up to the NFL Draft. That in itself could be a sign of a smokescreen.
There has been some speculation in recent months that Maye could go No. 1 overall. That seems extremely unlikely now, as the Chicago Bears appear to be targeting Caleb Williams as their first overall pick. But the commanders at number 2 were mainly a mystery. There was a thought that Maye might slip in the draft. Maybe that wasn’t true at all.
The New England Patriots are eagerly awaiting the commanders’ decision. They have the third choice. Maye is the favorite to finish third, at -110, but Daniels’ odds to be No. 3 have shifted along with his odds for No. 2. Daniels is now +120 and in third.
It would be a shock if quarterbacks don’t go with the first three picks. We just don’t know the order yet. Perhaps some keen gamblers have some idea of ​​what Washington will do. It’s probably not the last time the odds on that choice will change.
