By Jason Lange
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Donald Trump after his conviction for falsifying corporate records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted closed on Friday.
The two-day poll, conducted in the hours after the Republican presidential candidate’s conviction by a Manhattan jury on Thursday, also found that 56% of Republican registered voters said the case would have no effect on their vote and 35% said it this was more likely. to support Trump, who claims the charges against him are politically motivated and has promised to appeal.
The potential loss of a tenth of his party’s voters is more important to Trump than the stronger support of more than a third of Republicans, as many of the latter are likely to vote for him regardless of conviction.
Among independent registered voters, 25% said Trump’s conviction made it less likely they would support him in November, compared to 18% who said it was more likely and 56% who said the conviction would have no impact on their decision .
The verdict could shake up the race between Trump, who served as US president from 2017 to 2021, and Democratic President Joe Biden ahead of the November 5 election. U.S. presidential elections are typically decided by narrow margins in a handful of competitive swing states, meaning that even a small number of voters who diverge from their candidates can have a big impact.
Biden and Trump remain locked in a close race, with 41% of voters saying they would vote for Biden if the election were held today, and 39% saying they would choose Trump, according to the poll, which includes 2,556 American adults in the entire country were questioned.
Biden’s marginal lead was within the margin of error of about 2 percentage points for registered voters, keeping it in line with a Reuters/Ipsos poll from earlier this month that showed Trump and Biden each with 40% support. In both polls, about one in five voters say they are undecided, leaning toward a third-party candidate or might not vote at all.
There are still more than five months before the elections take place, which means a lot can change between now and November 5. Some Republican strategists say they believe news of Trump’s conviction will have little impact on voters’ thinking by then.
Trump will be sentenced on July 11, and the poll shows voters are divided over whether he should go to prison for his crimes. 53% of registered voters say he should not serve jail time over the hush money case and 46% say he should serve time.
(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Scott Malone and Alistair Bell)
