While we’ve reached the point in fantasy baseball season where managers are starting to see their frustration boil over, the reality is that these are just the early days of the campaign. Teams have played roughly 12% of their full schedule, and we’re still at the stage where a good or bad week can completely reverse the prospects for any player. The panic levels are especially unnecessary when it comes to pitchers, who have typically made between 3 and 8 appearances depending on their role.
This week’s list of trade candidates focuses squarely on pitchers, and as always the advice here is the Yahoo Trade Market page to determine the popular opinion on players involved in your trade discussions.
Who should buy low
Luis Castillo (SP, Seattle Mariners)
Wise managers will hold onto this advice for a few days, with the goal of sending a Castillo trade offer after he starts Saturday at Coors Field. The right-hander enjoyed his best start to the season last time out (6 IP, 2 ER), but he has taken the loss in all four of his outings and boasts inflated ratios (5.82 ERA, 1.66 WHIP) that are far from what they were expected when he was selected as a fantasy ace. But if we look beyond the surface statistics, we see that there is nothing wrong with Castillo. His K:BB ratio of 27:4 is an excellent mark, and his 2.87 xFIP ranks 10th among qualified pitchers. I would like to purchase this durable stunner (one career IL stint) at a small discount.
Josh Hader (RP, Houston Astros)
Buying low on good closers with unimpressive savings totals in April is one of the oldest tricks in the trading playbook. Hader now fits the bill as he has collected just one save while posting a 9.39 ERA. His managers have not even been rewarded for their problems with a whopping victory. The left-hander remains one of the best relievers in baseball, but he was held back by the Astros’ poor record (6-13) and a blown save that came when he was one pitch away from ending the game. My plan is to acquire Hader for a reliever who was significantly less valuable during draft season but now has a higher save total.
Who should buy high
Kyle Finnegan (RP, Washington Nationals)
To be clear, Finnegan’s “high” value is still a fairly low number. Few fantasy managers believe in the right-hander, as most of those who have him on the roster will cite his late draft status as the reason he is on their team. Still, saves are saves, and Finnegan is getting them now.
My trade offer for Finnegan would say something like, “We all know Hunter Harvey is a much better pitcher and will eventually be the Nats closer, but I’m desperate for saves right now, so I’m hoping Finnegan can help me. a few weeks out.”
Honestly, the Nats already know that Harvey is the better pitcher, but they still choose to use Finnegan in the ninth inning. There’s a scenario where Harvey dominates the most dangerous spots in opposing lineups all season long during the seventh and eighth innings, while Finnegan plods along to a 3.75 ERA and 30 saves.
Who should sell low
Triston McKenzie (SP, Cleveland Guardians)
Managers should be willing to take whatever they can get for McKenzie, who is clearly not the same pitcher who made a huge impact in 2022. Last season’s arm injuries appear to have taken a permanent toll on him, as his average fastball velocity has dropped to 93 mph, which is 1.4 mph lower than his career goal. He has trouble putting batters away (4.0 K/9 rate) and is walking at a high rate after previously excelling in that area. I’m willing to trade McKenzie for any player I can imagine staying on my roster for more than a month.
Who should sell high
Ryan Helsley (RP, St. Louis Cardinals)
Helsley is an excellent reliever who is off to a great start to the season. His seven saves lead the MLB and his K:BB ratio of 12:1 is an excellent mark. However, there were concerns about the right-hander’s durability that caused him to fall into the draft, and those concerns can’t be allayed with a few good weeks. Helsley managers could potentially get Hader and a second (less valuable) player for Helsley, which seemed unfathomable during draft season.
Aaron Nola (SP, Philadelphia Phillies)
There is a window to sell high on Nola after he dominated an inept Rockies lineup in his last start. In offering the right-hander in trade, I would call his poor initial start against a dominant Braves lineup an anomaly. After all, he has a win in two of his past three outings while allowing three runs in 19 innings.
However, my truthful view of Nola is that I am concerned.
He collected the same number of strikeouts as he walked in his two appearances prior to the Rockies’ start, which is never a good sign. His average fastball velocity is down 1.7 mph, and his 5.54 FIP suggests his 3.47 ERA could be much worse. Nola still has a lot of name value, and I would use that to my advantage when exploring his trade market.
