It’s an exciting and admittedly tense time in the fantasy football world. The playoffs are almost here, and for some fantasy managers, Week 14 could be a play-in game. The NFL has given us a great six-pack of bye teams (Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Commanders, Colts and Patriots), so our rosters are not firing on all cylinders. You’ll probably have to start with some uncomfortable options this week. Take heart, your opponents are likely facing the same reality.
The underlying sleepers were a brick last week – that’s a common theme this year. But plenty of sleeper receivers came home: Adam Thielen, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine all scored and exceeded their expectations.
Let’s see what we can do with week 14.
WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. Jaguars (39%)
We need to acknowledge the elephant in the room; eight touchdowns on 20 catches is one of the flukes of all time. It defies explanation. But NWI has also seen his role grow in the Tennessee huddle since DeAndre Hopkins was traded. Westbrook-Ikhine collected a season-high eight goals last week and his snap shares in the last six games are all robust: 92, 97, 100, 85, 90 and 100%. The new matchup is the Jaguars, who are the third easiest draw for opposing wideouts. I’m not even sure NWI is a sleeper anymore – for my medium and deeper grilles he’s become a proactive choice.
QB Will Levis vs. Jaguars (17%)
As we mentioned in the Westbrook-Ikhine section, Jacksonville’s secondary is a mess. It is torched weekly, yielding a QB rating of 110.2. And while Levis still makes too many weekly mistakes, he’s also pushing the ball downfield: He’s scored between 14 and 17 points in his last four fantasy starts, and he’s thrown for 785 yards and five touchdowns in his last three games. There’s a little bit of Jameis Winston in Levis’ game, the YOLO life – you can decide if that’s a feature or a bug. He is a playable QB2 in this shortened schedule.
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WR Adam Thielen at Eagles (50%)
He’s right on the roster tag where players from this column graduate, so hats off to the honorable veteran. He put on a clinic against Tampa Bay last week, winning on several routes and also giving us the best one-handed catch you’ll see all season. Bryce Young has played better since being benched and that makes Carolina’s offense more affordable.
The Philadelphia game is a problem — the Eagles have playmakers at all three levels and are arguably the NFC’s most complete team — but if this game gets out of hand, the negative play script could help Thielen absorb targets. He’s a playable WR3 for the rest of the month, health permitting.
TE Will Dissly at Chiefs (38%)
He did nothing for the Falcons, like every LAC player not named Ladd McConkey. Give them all a pass for that. The Chiefs’ seam coverage has been a mess all year and Dissly is probably the second read for Justin Herbert on most passing plays. If you lost Taysom Hill or Dallas Goedert this week, Dissly is a viable pivot at fantasy’s most puzzling position.
TE Noah Gray vs. Chargers (19%)
It feels strange to consider a fantasy start from a player who is ostensibly not a starter on his own offense. That said, the Chiefs have deployed a two-tight end offense as a base package, and Gray has posted a playable 12-147-4 line over the past three games. There’s a sneaky floor here and reasonable goal-line parity, the foundation of the tightest sleeper plays. And it’s not like the Chiefs are getting reliable production from their wide receivers on a weekly basis. Gray is probably here to stay.
RB Sincere McCormick at Buccaneers (7%)
You’ll have to grind the news on this one – if the Raiders have a healthy backroom by the end of the week, McCormick can’t be used. But he was the team’s best runner in last week’s near upset of the Chiefs, and while the Buccaneers are easier to beat in the passing game, they are an average matchup for opposing running backs. It’s not hard to imagine McCormick reaching double figures for the second week in a row.
RB Kenneth Gainwell vs. Panthers (4%)
This is the Hail Mary play of the column and is therefore listed last. There is an emergency, break the glass. The Eagles are 12.5-point favorites against Carolina, meaning a blowout is likely, and Gainwell often racks up 7-12 touches in games where the Eagles are running away from the opponent. Maybe Gainwell can be a fourth-quarter and garbage-time hero as Philadelphia dominates the worst-run defense in the league.
