Set your Week 13 lineups with Dalton Del Don’s key start/sit advice for every match on the list.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons
Start: Justin Herbert
Herbert has been fantasy’s QB9 over the past five games, and the Chargers will likely continue to rely more on the pass with JK Dobbins out. The Falcons have allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to RBs this season, but the seventh most to QBs. Atlanta has given up multiple TD passes in seven straight games, allowing a whopping 18 passes in that span. The Chargers have a healthy implied total of 25.5 points, so Herbert is a top five QB this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Beginning: George Pickens
Pickens is coming off a quiet game, but he saw the second-most air yards last week (143). Pickens’ season stats during games with Russell Wilson would be 136 targets, 88 catches, 1,404 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. His fantasy production has seen a 60.2% boost this season with Wilson compared to Justin Fields. The Bengals have been a pass-funnel defense over the past five games, allowing the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers but the second-fewest to running backs.
Houston Texans @Jacksonville Jaguars
Seated: Travis Etienne Jr. & Tank Bigbsy
Etienne returns to splitting duties with Bigsby, who was back in full practice this week. Trevor Lawrence returned to limited training but Mac Jones could be in line for a fresh start. Houston has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, and Jacksonville has the fifth-lowest team implied total (20.5 points). Bigsby’s averaged 16.7 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) in games without Etienne this season, but just 6.8 with him. Etienne has struggled even without Bigsby, so both backs are bench candidates in Week 13.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings
Tempered expectations: James Conner, Kyler Murray & Marvin Harrison Jr.
Conner has a 48% carry share over Arizona’s last three games, while rookie Trey Benson has a 29% carry share over that span. Conner leads the league in tackles evaded and continues to see work in the passing game, but he is losing work overall and will have the toughest game of the league this week. The Vikings have allowed just 62.3 RB rushing yards per game, an NFL-low five rushing touchdowns, and by far the lowest EPA/rush. The Vikings’ opponents are averaging the fewest rushing attempts per game this season (20.9).
Meanwhile, Kyler Murray has allowed just 5.4 YPA against zone coverage, which Minnesota has used at the league’s second-highest rate (79.5%). Murray has also struggled with the blitz and two high coverage grades (25th in fantasy points/dropback), two hallmarks of Brian Flores’ defense. Minnesota has given up an NFL-low 8.6 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks.
Additionally, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s target percentage drops. from 30.3% vs. man to 18% vs. zone, while his fantasy points per route saw a similar drop (0.65 to 0.34). Harrison Jr. hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game since Week 3, and no wide receiver in the top 60 is averaging fewer fantasy points per game when you remove touchdowns.
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Murray has the same number of weekly QB finishes in the top five (four) this season as the bottom 10. There’s a recognized risk of him sitting on your bench against a Minnesota pass-funnel defense, allowing the second-most pass attempts per game (37.9). ). Conner is the RB20 in this week’s “expert consensus ranks,” so you may not have better alternatives. But at least temper expectations for Conner, Murray and Harrison Jr. this week.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Beginning: Adonai Mitchell
Here’s a sleeper for this week. Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin all missed practice on Thursday, so Mitchell is looking at a hugely expanded role on Sunday. Michael Pittman Jr. will likely be overshadowed by Christian Gonzalez, and Mitchell has seen his target percentage (43.2%) and fantasy points per route (0.49) skyrocket against man coverage, which the Patriots have used as the second-highest percentage in the league ( 40.2). %).
Mitchell hasn’t had much success with Anthony Richardson this season, but AR has played much better than the box score indicated last week, and his willingness to throw downfield seems like a good fit for the rookie WR. If there’s a player who is widely available (just 4% on the roster) and could make an impact this week, it’s Mitchell.
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets
Sits: Geno Smith
The Jets’ defense has undoubtedly slumped since the firing of Robert Saleh, but they have allowed just two passing touchdowns and have the second-highest pressures in the league over the past four games. For the season, New York has yielded the third-fewest passing yards per game (197.2) and the fewest passing touchdowns (five). Additionally, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett sat out Thursday’s practice, so Seattle could be short-handed offensively (but Jaxon Smith-Njigba would get a fantasy boost). The Seahawks’ defense ranks fourth in EPA/play since trading for Ernest Jones, so the game script may not require much passing in this slow matchup. Smith sits this week.
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Start: Tony Pollard
Pollard likely won’t see a quick 94% share or as high of a workload as last week when Tyjae Spears returned to full practice on Thursday, but he should remain in fantasy lineups. The Commanders have yielded 4.8 YPC, the fifth-most EPA/rush and the second-most RB rushing yards per game (120.8). Will Levis is playing much better, and the Titans defense should help keep the game script manageable. Even start Pollard on Spears’ return.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Start: Bucky Irving
Irving’s big play last week could have been huge if not for the fact that he was tackled at the one-yard line on two separate drives and lost the job in the fourth quarter blowout. He outscored and ran more routes than Rachaad White for the first time this season. Irving is first in the league in yards after contact per rush (4.2), and he ranks in the top five in both YPC and yards per route run. Irving has been fantasy’s RB11 since Week 6 despite seeing less than 50% of the snaps in that span because he simply looks like one of the best running backs in the NFL right now.
Irving will continue to lose some work in Tampa Bay’s backfield, but he should remain in fantasy lineups this week in a premier matchup. Carolina has allowed the most rush attempts per game (27.5), rush yards per game (129.5), touchdowns (16) and schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs. Bryce Young has undeniably looked much better lately, but the Buccaneers are 5.5-point home favorites on Sunday, so the game script should be favorable. Tampa Bay also has the league’s highest implied team total (27.5 points), so treat Irving as a top-12 pick this week.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Start: Matthew Stafford
Stafford was fantasy’s QB43 (8.9 fpg) in five games this season without both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the field; he was the QB8 (19.0 fpg) through five games with the wide receivers. Stafford’s season pace would be 4,887.5 passing yards and 37.4 touchdowns with Kupp and Nacua on the field, including going up against the league’s current best defense last week. The Saints have allowed the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to QBs over the past five games. The Rams have one of the league’s highest expected totals (26.5 points) in a fast-paced game against a depleted and vulnerable New Orleans secondary.
Stafford is the QB14 in the “expert consensus ranks” this week, but he is my QB4.
Philadelphia Eagles @Baltimore Ravens
Start: Dallas Goedert
Jalen Hurts has averaged just 21.3 pass attempts over the past six games, but there should be more volume in this fast-paced matchup. Baltimore has allowed the fewest RB rushing yards per game (60.5), while Ravens opponents have averaged by far the most pass attempts this season (39.2). Additionally, last week without DeVonta Smith, Goedert saw a first read target share of 33.3%. The wideout returned to limited practice on Thursday, but Smith may not be 100% even if he is able to participate. Boost Goedert against a pass-funnel defense in a matchup with this week’s highest total (51.0 points).
San Francisco 49ers @ Buffalo Bills
Seat: Deebo Samuel Sr.
Samuel is the WR43 in fantasy points per game this season, sandwiched between Quentin Johnston and Rashod Bateman. He is the WR42 in expected fantasy points, just behind Allen Lazard. Whether it’s injuries or recovering from pneumonia, Samuel simply hasn’t looked like the same player this year. He has committed multiple drops and ranks No. 118 out of 123 pass catchers in ESPN’s Open Score.
Samuel feels “due for a breakout game,” and the 49ers are allowing the second-most yards per play (6.3) and are due for regression in the red zone. But San Francisco’s offense was a disaster last week without Brock Purdy and Trent Williams; Purdy is looking increasingly uncertain for Sunday night while barely pitching this week, and Williams seems unlikely to play. The 49ers have the second-lowest implied team total this week (19.5 points), which strongly suggests Brandon Allen is entering a windy game with temperatures in the 20s. The Bills have had a WR eclipse 16.1 fantasy points in just one game all season, so Samuel is a bench candidate on Sunday night.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Sits: Nick Chubb
Chubb saw season highs in snap share (64%), rush yards (59) and carries (20) last week, but his fantasy day was only saved by two short touchdown runs. He’s hitting just 3.0 YPC and is averaging just 1.4 targets (and 1.4 receiving yards) through five games since returning from yet another major multi-ligament knee surgery. Chubb remains a threat to score on the goal line, but he will have a tough matchup this week.
The Broncos have allowed the second-fewest rush yards before contact per attempt (0.8) and the third-fewest rush yards (six) this season. Denver was vulnerable to receiving backs, but Chubb ran just eight routes last week, and the Broncos have given up the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted rush fantasy points to RBs over the past five games. The Browns have issues at left tackle and an implied total of 19.5 points, so Chubb deserves bench consideration Monday night.
