In the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens have excelled when it comes to beating NFC teams. They have only lost twice to the other conference’s No. 8 seed under center. The idea is that those NFC opponents don’t see Jackson regularly and have no idea how to defend him on game day.
That narrative certainly played out on Sunday when Baltimore visited the Giants and did what it wanted. Jackson had his best fantasy game of the year in Week 15, throwing five touchdowns and tacking on 65 rushing yards in a glorious 36.10-point afternoon. The Ravens scored the 35-14 victory, even covering the huge 16-point spread.
The ball rarely touched the ground on Sunday. Jackson completed 21 of 25 passes for 290 yards and was not intercepted. Rashod Bateman (3-80-2) caught two of the touchdowns and Mark Andrews (2-24-1) had the first of the day. The other scores went to non-playable fantasy options: Justice Hill and Devontez Walker.
That’s sometimes the fantasy of the passing game in Baltimore – it’s a splintered goal tree and the volume is often not there. Zay Flowers (5-63-0) is usually open, but doesn’t have the ability to be a target. It’s also not unusual for Jackson to land well under 30 attempts. Baltimore has the fifth-lowest success rate in the league. The idea is to gash opponents with the running game and then rip their hearts out with the occasional chunk play in the passing game.
But because Jackson threw five touchdowns all outside the 10-yard line, Derrick Henry was the odd man out on Sunday. He didn’t score a touchdown for the third straight game and had a season-low 67 yards. This is a fluke and Henry will certainly be needed more in the next two weeks against credible opponents Pittsburgh and Houston. But for Henry to realize his fantasy projection, you always need that touchdown deodorant. He wasn’t targeted on Sunday and has just 13 catches this year.
Jackson also needs a prove-it game against Pittsburgh next week. He is just 2-5 against the Steelers and was coming off a loss to them a month ago (66.1 rating, just one touchdown). But those are tomorrow’s concerns. Chances are Jackson got you to a playoff win here.
Veteran WRs are going off
While Jackson was one of the quarterback stars in his prime (only Josh Allen beat Jackson on Sunday’s list), two back-nine receivers took control of the wideout board. Davante Adams exploded for a 9-198-2 clinic against Jacksonville, and Mike Evans made two visits to the end zone against the Chargers.
The Jets aren’t going anywhere this year, but Adams has stepped up his play since the bye. He has scored in three consecutive games, putting together a spirited 23-373-4 line in that period. The Rams defense is an easy draw in Week 16. Maybe Aaron Rodgers has some streaming value before this disappointing season ends.
Evans needed a strong finish to move past 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th straight year, but Sunday’s clutch game produced 159 yards, an excellent positive step. He’s already slapped a Hall of Fame card in my eyes. Tampa Bay has been one of the league’s best carnival teams in 2024, and Dallas might be able to put on a goal-scoring battle next Sunday night. Evans is the rare fantasy pick who has never found himself in the disappointment pool – and he has time to make sure this season ends on a positive note.
Josh Allen delivers again
Sometimes I think there are three keys to winning in fantasy football this year: drafting well, using the waiver wire, and avoiding Josh Allen. Buffalo’s MVP-in-waiting had another ridiculous day, mauling the Lions for four touchdowns (two through the air, two by land) to go with 362 passing yards and 69 rushing yards, and once again raced to the top of the QB board . That’s 93.16 fantasy points combined over the last two weeks.
Allen’s positive side is dreamy, but so is his depth. He had two QB1 finishes in September and has been extremely consistent since Week 6: QB5, QB6 QB14, QB7, QB7, QB7, QB3, QB1 (a record performance), QB1 (with three games to go). Only boredom can hold Allen back when he faces the Patriots and Jets in the next two weeks.
It always feels like Allen is making an effort to run later in the season, and that should carry over into the NFL playoffs when the games mean the most.
Mixed bag for the rest of the Bills passing game
While Buffalo’s offense always runs through Allen, the pass-catching projection is a tricky business. Take Amari Cooper, who somehow had 14 goals last week (and a 6-95-0 line) and then wasn’t targeted in the win against the Lions. We’ve learned to tune our fantasy watches to the consistent Khalil Shakir (6-39-1) and the tight ends have been useful (Dalton Kincaid had a solid 4-53-0 line), but how could we ever see Ty Johnson catching five passes for 114 yards? Keon Coleman broke free for a 64-yard reception, but he was targeted only twice.
Star running backs fall short
Allen earning the 2024 MVP means Saquon Barkley can focus on the Offensive Player of the Year award. Barkley had the rare fantasy dud on Sunday, averaging less than four yards per pop and no touchdown against Pittsburgh. Barkley’s touchdowns are always somewhat weak, as the Eagles always pass the short touchdowns to Jalen Hurts (he had another on Sunday). Barkley’s 13 scores come from an average of 28.5 yards, and he doesn’t have a single jumper from the one-yard line (Hurts has 11).
Henry and Barkley weren’t the only veteran backs who stumbled on Sunday. Joe Mixon was held to 23 yards on 12 carries against Miami. He also didn’t score a touchdown, although a 5-33-0 receiving line helped a bit. Mixon has miraculously overcome Houston’s poor offensive line for most of the year, but there were no lanes available on Sunday. His playoff schedule isn’t fun with Kansas City and Baltimore waiting the next two weeks.
Remark: I will continue to add the week 15 analysis as the night progresses.
