Fantasy Football Week 4 Start Sit Decisions: Brian Robinson Jr. emerging

Quarterback

Start: Jayden Daniels, commanders

We all saw what Daniels did on Monday. Most people start it without anyone on the internet telling them to. I just can’t stress enough that there are roughly four quarterbacks on the planet who expect more fantasy points than him. Daniels leads the NFL in scrambles (17) and yards on scrambles (138). As a passer, the rookie ranks in the top five in EPA per play and yards per attempt. RotoPat has him in its weekly ranks at QB5 and I might push it one or two spots higher.

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Starting point: Caleb Williams, Bears

Williams started to find his groove in Week 3, throwing for 363 yards and two scores against the Colts, albeit with a few more interceptions. He easily set a season-high in yards per attempt (7.0) and also hit a high-water mark in PFF grade (57.7). Williams didn’t address all his shortcomings, but he proved capable of pushing the ball down the field and making big gains. He faces an LA defense this week that ranks 31st in the EPA per dropback allowed and has given up the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Incumbent: Matthew Stafford, Rams

Things aren’t going so well for Stafford on the other side of the game in Chicago. The Rams lost Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp before their Week 3 matchup with the 49ers. They went from a success rate of -2% above expected in their first two games to -10% in Week 3.

Stafford threw for 221 yards and a single score on 25 attempts. The Bears rank third in EPA per dropback allowed and Vegas agrees on the difficulty of this matchup. LA’s team total of 18.75 points is the same as Miami’s, which is already on its way to getting their third quarterback of the year.

Incumbent: Anthony Richardson, Colts

Richardson ranks 26th in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt (5.1), despite leading the league with five passes of more than 40 yards. He ranks 25th in total pass attempts as head coach Shane Steichen has reverted to the Colts’ ground game most weeks. Indy has a success rate above expectations of -10%. This hasn’t yet filtered down to elite rush volume for Richardson, who is averaging six carries per game, the same number as Bo Nix. If you’re facing a Steelers team that also wants to play a run-heavy, bar-fight style of football, don’t expect either side to give us many fantasy points.

Run back

Starts: Zack Moss, Bengals

The Bengals are favored by 4.5 points over the Panthers. Carolina’s defense ranks 25th in the EPA per rush attempt and has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Moss dominated Cincinnati’s backfield touches for three weeks. He has a 64 percent carry share and is also the Bengals’ best option when it comes to passing yards, running a route on 59 percent of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks. In a great spot, Cincinnati’s RB1 projects as a fantasy RB2.

Start: Brian Robinson Jr., commanders

Robinson ranks seventh in yards after contact per carry and ninth in rush yards above expected per attempt. He also averages a respectable 1.2 yards per route and PFF has him rated as their No. 8 pass-blocking running back. The Commanders have already ruled out Austin Ekeler for their Week 4 shootout with the Cardinals. Robinson should sit at the top of the RB2 ranks, with the backfield all to himself.

Sits: Cam Akers, Texans

We got away with putting Akers on the “Start” list last week. He saved his fantasy day with a receiving touchdown, but didn’t play a full-time role. He was on the field one more time than Dare Ogunbowale, running a route on a quarter of CJ Stroud’s dropbacks. This came in the context of a big loss for the Vikings, but it also means Akers has a narrow path to fantasy points. That’s on the ground, where he ranks outside the top 30 among backs in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per carry. I’m avoiding this backfield until Joe Mixon returns.

Incumbent: Javonte Williams, Broncos

Williams ranks second to last in rush yards over expected per carry. PFF has him with the lowest rushing grade among 54 qualified running backs. Sean Payton gave practice squad Tyler Badie a chance to close things out in Week 3 and he ran for 70 yards on nine attempts. The Broncos immediately signed Badie to their active roster in the following days. Williams is concerned about efficiency and now volume questions loom.

Wide receiver

Start: Tee Higgins, Bengals

The Bengals did not rush Higgins back and could use him in a full-time role once he returned to action. Higgins ran a route on 95 percent of Joe Burrow’s dropbacks in Week 3. He earned six targets, three of which accounted for 67 percent of the team’s end zone targets. Cincinnati lost to Commanders but dropped 33 points in a shootout and Vegas buys that their offense is back in form. They have a team total of 25.75 in a match with the second highest total of the week.

Start: Chris Olave, Saints

We go back to the well on Olave. He ranks ninth in yards per route and maintains PFF’s top mark through three weeks. Despite hitting a speed bump in Week 3, the Saints still rank third in the NFL in EPA per passing game and are second in total points. Olave remains a top-15 fantasy option for Week 4.

Incumbent: Michael Pittman, Colts

Pittman makes the ‘Sit’ list for the second week in a row. Anthony Richardson needs to show some signs of life as a passer before Pittman can appear in our fantasy lineups again. Richardson ranks 28th in completion percentage on intermediate throws and dead last on short throws. Pittman, for his part, has seen 84.2 percent of his targets on short and intermediate attempts. A 40-point game doesn’t seem like the right place for Pittman.

Incumbent: Quentin Johnston, Chargers

It should come as no surprise that the Chargers are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league.

They will start either an injured Justin Herbert or backup Taylor Heinicke against Kansas City. No matter who the quarterback addresses first, it’s safe to assume he’ll descend further into the depths this week to establish it. The Chargers will also likely bring back Joshua Palmer after a one-game absence. With sportsbooks projecting the Chargers for the third-fewest points, Johnston’s role as this team’s touchdown scorer seems likely to be negated versus Kansas City.

Tight end

Start: Zach Ertz, commanders

Ertz has the ninth-highest route share among tight ends and his 19 percent target share ranks 11th. He has a surprisingly respectable aDOT of 8.4, which puts him in the top five for his team’s air yards. Ertz’s 1.56 yards per route is his highest mark since 2019. This is the best football Ertz has played in a long time and his team is staring down the barrel of one of the few high-scoring games on the Week 4 slate.

Starts: Brenton Strange, Jaguars

Strange took over the starting job in Jacksonville two weeks ago after Evan Engram suffered a hamstring injury during pre-game warmups. He ran a route on 72 percent of the Jags’ dropbacks in Week 2. That number dropped last week, but the Jags gave their starters some time off in the fourth quarter after the Bills thoroughly buried them. He was on the field for 72 percent of their passing plays through three quarters. Strange has converted a 17 percent target share into five grabs for 77 yards and a score. With Engram also likely to miss Week 4, Strange remains a high-return TE2.

Sit: Isaiah Probably, Raven

He probably turned back into a pumpkin after his explosion in week 1. He has run a route on 52 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks over the past two weeks and has a target share of nine percent. I won’t be surprised if his role expands at some point, but predicting when that will happen is folly and the base volume isn’t enough to rely on.

Incumbent: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers

There is virtually nothing wrong with Freiermuth’s role. He ranks in the top-10 in target and route share among tight ends. The problem that makes all his strong market share numbers irrelevant is the same problem that plagued players like Drake London and Kyle Pitts last year. The Steelers, now led by OC Arthur Smith, don’t throw the football. Their success rate of -9% above expectations ranks the lowest in the NFL. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in total pass attempts and 29th in neutral pace.