It can be easy to overturn and question even the easiest start/sit decisions, especially in the fantasy football playoffs. Can we trust recent tree performance? Should we hold on to the stars who got us to the postseason and who have disappointed lately? Dalton Del Don is here to help us gauge the reliability of certain players in the biggest fantasy weeks.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
Henry saw his lowest RB rush share (58.3%) of the season last week against the Ravens as the heavy favorites in any game this season. Henry was the RB1 through Week 9, but he has been the RB20 for six weeks since then. Henry ranks second behind only Saquon Barkley in rush yards above expectations, so performance hasn’t been the issue. Henry has traditionally been extra sensitive to the game script, and Baltimore had trailed on 65% of its offensive plays in the previous four games before last week’s outburst (when Henry, ironically, sat for most of the fourth quarter after had built up a huge lead through passing). Furthermore, Henry saw 12 chances inside the five-yard line in the first six weeks, but has seen just five in eight games since.
It’s possible that Baltimore leans more toward the pass as it tries to get Lamar Jackson his third MVP trophy, but Henry should start seeing bigger scoring opportunities during more favorable game scripts over the next two weeks. Henry has averaged 102.0 rushing yards and 1.1 touchdowns in December/January throughout his career, while the Big Dog has flourished towards the end of the season. Henry has been a fantasy disappointment of late while not scoring in over a month, but he can be completely trusted during championship weeks.
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Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Kupp has taken a clear backseat to Puka Nacua, and he’s coming off a goose egg during the first week of the fantasy playoffs. In Kupp’s defense, both teams struggled passing during a rain-filled game that combined for zero touchdowns. Kupp was wide open for a 59-yard touchdown when Matthew Stafford looked his way, but Kupp is now the WR57 of the past three weeks.
Kupp is clearly not the same player he once was, and Nacua has emerged as a true No. 1, but he will remain an integral part of a productive passing attack. The Jets have allowed the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the past five weeks, and New York ranks 29th in EPA/dropback allowed since Week 9. Additionally, the Jets have given up the most fantasy points to the slot. where Kupp has run 62% of his routes this season. Kupp’s confidence has fallen to the middle of the WR2 range, but he has an intriguing matchup ahead of him this week.
Malik Nabers, New York Giants
Nabers is the only player on this list not coming off a quiet game, but other concerns remain beyond his control. He surpassed a 40% target share last week for the fourth time this season, while no other wideout has done so more than twice. It was also Nabers’ eighth match, in which he achieved a target share of more than 40% on the first reading. The rookie WR has seen 37 targets over the last three weeks, so volume hasn’t been an issue. Quarterback was a big problem, though.
Tommy DeVito eats too many bags and has an extremely low ADOT, but Tim Boyle immediately started targeting Nabers’ field after taking over after halftime last week. Boyle also targeted Nabers inside the five-yard line twice – his first two looks there since Week 3, which was the last time Nabers was tackled. The TD toss also marked the Giants’ first passing score since November 3. Nabers also had 34 yards of defensive pass interference penalties, so his fantasy value has life if DeVito stays on the sidelines.
Additionally, Nabers’ role changed last week as he saw season highs in routes, targets, catches, yards and TDs from the slot, where he absolutely dominated in college. The Falcons have been under fire for the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points for wide receivers over the past five weeks (and they just faced Desmond Ridder), so he’ll get a favorable matchup indoors on Sunday (even with AJ Terrell shadowing him). The Giants have a modest team total of 16 points, so Nabers’ ceiling is limited. But volume, a new role and a potential QB upgrade make Nabers a reliable top-15 WR this week.
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Hill was the WR33 this season as fantasy managers continue to wait for a blowout that is yet to come. Hill is dealing with a wrist injury that will likely require offseason surgery, and a decimated Dolphins offensive line has led to Tua Tagovailoa throwing 25% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage. Tight end Jonnu Smith leads Miami in targets since Week 5. Hill has negative fantasy points above expectations for the first time ever.
However, Hill’s fantasy value will get a boost if Jaylen Waddle’s knee injury costs him the next few games. Hill has averaged 12.0 targets. 105.0 receiving yards, 0.7 TDs and 18.2 fantasy points (would be the WR2 this year) in games Waddle has missed since joining the Dolphins. Hill is coming off a dud, but he can be trusted as a top-10 WR this week, assuming Waddle sits.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf has been dealing with a shoulder injury while playing, and has been the fantasy WR56 for five games since his return. He has a target share of 20.4%, compared to 24.8% for Jaxon Smith-Njigba over that period. While JSN saw a 50%(!) target share on first read last week, Metcalf saw the fewest goals (three) in a game where he hasn’t been injured since his rookie season.
Metcalf would lose all fantasy confidence if Sam Howell were to start this week, but Mike MacDonald is optimistic Geno Smith can return on Sunday. Additionally, the Vikings have allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers over the past five weeks, so Metcalf has a favorable fit. Still, fantasy managers can only rely on Metcalf as a WR3 at this point, and he should be benched if we get Howell (who finished last week with a CPOE of -33.2% in the first percentile).
