Jauan Jennings wasn’t on anyone’s radar when fantasy football season began. He was the presumed WR3 on a team with two superstar wideouts and a star tight end, and the 49ers also drafted a receiver in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Jennings was given a modest contract extension based on his familiarity with the offense and his plus-blocking ability. There was no need for Jennings debates all summer.
But man, we need one now. Jennings forced the issue with his detonation game against the Rams, putting up a monstrous 11-175-3 line in Los Angeles on Sunday.
Baseball statistics legend Bill James pioneered a concept called Signature Significance. The gist of it is that while statisticians prefer large sample sizes before drawing definitive conclusions, on rare occasions a performance can be so significant an outlier that it obviates the need to gather more evidence. If an unknown rookie pitcher throws a no-hitter and strikes out 16 batters on a random Thursday, it’s likely that pitcher is a special talent. Ordinary players are rarely capable of such greatness, even accounting for randomness and variance.
So we ask ourselves: Did Jennings reach Signature Significance level with his stellar performance in Week 3?
The History of WR “Boom” Games
My first step in answering that question was to examine the historical context. Jennings scored 46.5 points in full-point PPR leagues last week, which is the 37th-best WR rating in the modern fantasy era (2000-present; thanks to Pro-Football-Reference for the data). The other names on that list are a collection of superstars and very good players.
Jimmy Smith is at the top of the list, a Hall of Very Good receiver. And you’ll find a lot of Hall of Famers (or likely future Hall of Famers) for that search: Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, Terrell Owens, Julio Jones, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans. Even if we move past the Gold Jacket stars, you start to see a lot of familiar names who were solid fantasy options, guys like Will Fuller and Alshon Jeffrey, Eric Decker and Amani Toomer, Chad Johnson and Wes Welker. Even some of the Comet players, the flash-and-fade guys, were fun. Dwayne Bowe had that one magical season. Josh Gordon was a superstar for a while. Miles Austin could play.
Who are the “worst” players on this list? Kevin Curtis and Drew Bennett, I think. Kenny Britt. These are all fantasy players I once trusted. Britt had a near-disappointing career and still had one WR22 season and one more WR27 finish. Curtis peaked at WR14. Bennett was WR7 the year he and Billy Volek made magic. What a time to be alive.
To be fair, all of the historical receivers I’ve compiled here had games that were better than Jennings. So for balance, we have to consider some of the great performances that were just a little bit less than Jennings’. And I was encouraged that most of the next 40 names were still of comparable star quality to the players at the top of the page. The only big surprises on this list would have to be Albert Connell, Brian Hartline (now Ohio State’s receiver guru), and David Patten. Dig a little deeper, and Chase Claypool and Marty Booker emerge.
If Jennings were to become anything like the players in the paragraph above, fantasy managers would probably happily accept that. And who knows — maybe he’s capable of being better than that.
Maybe history isn’t your thing. Let’s focus on what we do know. Jennings is connected to an exciting play-caller (Kyle Shahanan), a good quarterback (Brock Purdy) and a plus infrastructure. The 49ers currently have several key skill players injured, including Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. No one knows when CMC will be back, and while Kittle and Samuel could return soon, we have to worry about the injury getting worse. Rookie WR Ricky Pearsall is still out of the picture.
The Jennings tape review supports his breakout play. Sure, the Rams secondary dropped the assignment here and there — especially on the first touchdown — but Jennings won on several routes and Purdy showed a willingness to throw Jennings the ball in tight windows. There’s a trust and rapport there.
Nothing in this article constitutes “proof” of Jauan Jennings, but “Wait for Proof” is a dead fantasy strategy. We need to evaluate what’s possible. Jennings certainly has the potential to retain fantasy relevance deeper into the season; he offers plausible upside. That’s good enough for me. Put him on the proactive starting roster for Week 4 and grant him Circle of Trust privileges for the time being. There are no guarantees, of course, but I’d rather see him on your roster than your opponent’s.
All statistics and player rankings used in this article come from Pro-Football Reference.
