The first round of voting for the French National Assembly took place on Sunday, with President Emmanuel Macron in an attempt to increase the relative majority his centrist bloc currently has in the House of Commons.
Polling booths opened at 8am (0600 GMT), with 49.3 million people eligible to vote. Voting in some overseas areas had already started on Saturday due to the time difference. The first forecasts are expected shortly after 8 p.m.
Macron called early elections after the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) made a big gain in European Parliament elections earlier this month.
The RN is leading the elections ahead of the new left-wing alliance, the New Popular Front (NPF), which was recently formed to contest the elections. The Ensemble (Together) alliance, led by Macron’s Renaissance party, is in third place.
Recent polls put Macron’s centrist camp in third place with between 20% and 20.5%. Le Pen’s RN and its allies were clearly ahead with 36% to 36.5%, followed by the NPF with 29%.
If the RN wins a majority in the 577-member National Assembly, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from its ranks to guarantee a stable cabinet.
Candidates who obtain an absolute majority in the first round are elected to the meeting. However, in most constituencies the winner will only emerge after the second round on July 7.
Forecasts predict that right-wing nationalists could become the strongest force in the National Assembly. Whether it could be enough for an absolute majority is unclear – also because local alliances are often formed between the two voting rounds, which influence the outcome. While the left could remain stable, Macron’s centrist camp is likely to lose seats.
Such an outcome would have serious consequences.
The National Assembly is one of the two French chambers of parliament. It is involved in legislation and can overthrow the government with a vote of no confidence.
If a bloc other than Macron’s centrist camp were to win an absolute majority, Macron would de facto be forced to appoint a prime minister from his ranks. This would then be a so-called cohabitation. Macron’s power would shrink significantly and the prime minister would become more important.
The right-wing nationalists explicitly aim to win the elections and take responsibility for the government. RN party leader Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister, replacing Macron’s incumbent Gabriel Attal.
The elections are being followed with interest in Brussels and Berlin.
German companies are concerned about the consequences of the elections if the far right or far left comes to power.
“When analysing economic policy announcements from the right and the left, German and French companies come to the same conclusion: France’s attractiveness would suffer,” said Patrick Brandmaier, director of the Franco-German Chamber of Industry and Commerce, in Paris.
Macron’s second and final term ends in 2027. A sharp decline in support for his Renaissance-led bloc will certainly limit his effectiveness.
Marine Le Pen of National Rally is seen as a serious contender in the next presidential elections.
