The stock market has soared to record highs since Kamala Harris entered the presidential race in July. Will the good vibes continue if she wins the White House? The answer may differ per sector.
Fortune polled analysts and academics about which stocks could rise after a Harris win, and which companies could see their shares fall. Here are some companies to consider:
Harris and former President Donald Trump differ sharply when it comes to climate and energy policy. As vice president, Harris cast the deciding vote to pass the Inflation Reduction Act. Joe Biden’s signature climate bill passed without any Republican support, and Trump has pledged to dismantle the system of tax credits and cuts, which he calls a “green new scam.”
Whether Trump could deliver on these campaign promises is unclear, but a Harris victory is likely much better news for renewables. Shares of First solar energyAmerica’s largest solar panel builder is down 16% this month amid industry volatility and election uncertainty. A Harris victory could reward investors who bought the dip.
A Harris administration could also help electric vehicle makers looking to gain ground on Elon Musk’s Tesla, especially since the EV giant’s CEO has thrown his full support behind Donald Trump. Musk’s political activism, including his public feuds with California officials, has already provided an opportunity for companies like these Rivaans to single out dissatisfied progressive customers. While Musk is seemingly betting Tesla’s future on autonomous driving, government subsidies and tax breaks are crucial to companies like Rivian’s ability to compete.
Offshore wind energy also benefits from a Harris victory. Spanish energy giant Iberdrola has invested more than $13 billion in the US and Britain over the past 12 months, boosting profits by 150% in the first nine months of the year. Its American subsidiary, Avangridis available for a modest price-earnings ratio just above 12, according to S&P Global.
Then there are less obvious choices. Defense contractor stocks like it HoneywellFor example, according to a preliminary analysis by Georgetown University’s Michael Bailey, Harris’ chances of winning have improved somewhat. That could reflect the fact that Harris is likely making a better choice to continue U.S. support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
Finally, a Harris victory could give major importers a sigh of relief. Trump’s proposals for a global tariff of at least 10% and a 60% tax on all Chinese goods would not be good news for major retailers such as Goalso a Harris win could allay the concerns currently priced into the stock.
