According to initial forecasts, France’s far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) appears to have a clear lead in the first round of early national elections for control of the lower house.
President Emmanuel MacronThe centrist Ensemble (Together) alliance, led by his Renaissance party, appeared to stumble to third place in the first round of voting, according to preliminary results reported by broadcasters TF1 and France 2 shortly after polling stations closed. Sunday.
The RN, together with its far-right allies, won 34% to 34.2% of the vote. The left-wing alliance Nieuw Volksfront was in second place with 28.1% against 29.1%.
According to the broadcasters, Macron’s Ensemble came in third place with 20.3% against 21.5%.
How many seats the blocs will receive in the National Assembly will only be decided on July 7 during the second elections.
The result is almost certainly a bitter defeat for Macron, who had gambled that early elections would increase the relative majority of his party and its allies in the lower house.
That now seems extremely unlikely. If neither camp wins an absolute majority according to the forecasts, France will face tough negotiations to form a coalition government.
Security forces in France have braced for possible unrest in some of the country’s major cities on the night of the first round of voting.
Initial forecasts predict that Marine Le Pen’s right-wing populists and their allies could become the strongest force in the lower house with 230 to 280 seats. However, they could fall short of an outright majority with 289 seats.
The far left could also make gains and reach 125 to 200 seats. Macron’s supporters risk falling back to just 60 to 100 seats.
However, it is difficult to say exactly how the seats will be distributed.
Before the second round of voting, the parties can still form local alliances that influence the election outcome.
Candidates who win an absolute majority in the first round will be elected to the assembly, but in most constituencies the winner will only emerge after the second round on July 7.
Potential problems for Macron
Macron called early elections after Rassemblement National, led by Marine Le Pen, made major gains in the European Parliament elections early this month.
Macron’s term runs until 2027 and his office is not at stake, but the results could have major implications for the rest of his term and reshape French politics.
If the RN wins a majority in the 577-member National Assembly, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister from among its ranks to ensure a stable cabinet.
Such an outcome would have serious consequences.
The National Assembly is one of the two French chambers of parliament. It is involved in legislation and can overthrow the government with a vote of no confidence.
If a bloc other than Macron’s centrist camp were to win an absolute majority, Macron would be de facto forced to appoint a prime minister from his ranks. This would be a so-called cohabitation.
Macron’s power would shrink significantly and the prime minister would gain relative power.
The right-wing nationalists explicitly aim to win the elections and assume government responsibility. RN leader Bardella is set to become prime minister, replacing Macron’s incumbent Attal.
Europe is watching
The elections are being followed with interest in Brussels and Berlin.
German companies are concerned about the consequences of the elections if the far right or far left comes to power.
“When we analyze economic policy announcements from the right and left, German and French companies come to the same conclusion: France’s attractiveness would suffer,” said Patrick Brandmaier, director of the French-German Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Paris.
Macron’s second and final term ends in 2027. A sharp decline in support for his Renaissance-led bloc will certainly limit his effectiveness.
Le Pen of the National Rally is seen as a serious contender in the next presidential elections.
