The three-ball has become perhaps the most important part of scoring in the NBA, so we thought we’d take a few shots from downtown as well. Here, fantasy basketball analyst Dan Titus will break down three things fantasy managers need to know every week. Or he’ll break down multiple three-point advice, analysis and more – it just depends on how open he is from Deep.
Today I’m dividing the 2024 rookie class into three tiers based on their success to date and near-term prospects.
Level 1: Top rookies
Yves Missi – C, New Orleans Pelicans
In my last rookie column, Missi was in Level 2; now he is number 1.
Missi leads all rookies in fantasy points, is second in fantasy points per game and fifth in the 9-cat rankings among first-year players. With Zach Edey and Donovan Clingan injured, Missi has the biggest upside for a big who can get an efficient double-double with stocks. He has minimal competition for minutes and he is gradually improving offensively. Missi is coming off his best game of the year, a 23-point, 12-rebound performance with two shares — and there’s plenty more to come with the Pelicans in shambles. He’s still available in 67% of leagues, so pick him up if he’s on your waiver wire.
Jared McCain – PG/SG, Philadelphia 76ers
From unlisted to top of the charts, Jared McCain has been the most impactful rookie over the past month. You might be wondering, “Titus, why didn’t you have the current odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year?”
Well, my last rookie report was on November 7, seven games into the season, when McCain averaged 6.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 0.4 3s on 46/25/100 shooting split in just 11 minutes per night. Then Nick Nurse woke up and the former Dukie started playing 30 minutes a night.
The results speak for themselves.
Since Nov. 8: 21.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 3.3 3s on 47/40/85 shooting splits in 33.5 minutes per night.
McCain leads all rookies in scoring while averaging more than 30 fantasy points per game over the past 30 days. Although he ranks fourth among rookies in 9-cat, he plays a crucial role for a struggling Sixers team whose stars can’t stay healthy.
Alex Sarr – PF/C, Washington Wizards
Sarr’s shot profile continues to hinder his fantasy value, but as long as he rebounds and gets shares, he’s worth keeping. I view Sarr as a long-term play because I doubt we’ll see Jonas Valančiūnas or Kyle Kuzma on the roster after the trade deadline. That should give Sarr a significant amount of time to work on better shot selection and his efficiency. He still leads all rookies in fantasy points per game, has the second-most fantasy points and is the third-highest ranked rookie in 9-cat leagues this season.
Zach Edey-C, Memphis Grizzlies
Edey is injured but continues with the Grizzlies G-League affiliate. He should return to the starting center spot when he returns to the lineup. Through 14 games, Edey ranks third among rookies in fantasy points per game and is the second-highest ranked rookie in 9-cat leagues behind Donovan Clingan (more on him soon). We still have to do that Real Watch him be the shot-blocker we know he can be.
Level 2: Increasing odds
Carlton “Bub” Carrington – PG/SG, Washington Wizards
Bub moved down a level because, while he was enjoying a great start to his rookie campaign, the Wizards put him on the ice in favor of Malcolm Brogdon. The decision makes sense if the Wizards plan to build up Brogdon’s trade value, but fantasy managers were dealt a bad hand when Bub’s role dwindled to a bench capacity. Injuries are common for Brogdon, so Carrington could emerge again in short order after Brogdon suffered an injury. another knee injury (although Brogdon is questionable for Thursday).
In 12 starts, Carrington averaged 10.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.5 3s and 1.5 stocks in 31 minutes of action. He currently ranks sixth among rookies in the 9-cat ranks.
Zaccharie Risacher – SF, Atlanta Hawks
Risacher is here to stay. De’Andre Hunter was injured, opening the door for Risacher to earn starting minutes. Even after Hunter returned, he has played well enough to keep the job.
His shares have been a surprise, as he has racked up 1.8 shares per game, matching his encouraging 21% usage rate. His points will likely stay in the 11-13 range with a handful of rebounds and a few assists. It has come out light from the corners and mid-range, so I expect further developments in efficiency with more iterations and experience.
Stephon Castle – PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs
It was a big month for Castle, causing him to level up. He started the previous fourteen games for the Spurs and his production increased with the extra minutes. During that span, he has posted 14.3 points, 4.4 dimes and 2.5 boards per game, along with 1.6 3s and 1.3 shares. The lack of efficiency has been his biggest negative, but the scoring and usage of 21% are encouraging for his prospects.
Devin Vassell will start at some point, but due to his size, Castle can also play forward. The Spurs are 8-6 with him on the starting unit, and his physicality and defense are necessary components of their recent success.
Donovan Clingan – C, Portland Trailblazers
Did you see his 19-rebound performance? What about the eight-block game? Yes, he’s out for several weeks with an MCL sprain, but that peak performance was intriguing enough to warrant shelving Clingan (if you can afford it) while he’s on the shelf.
While Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams have been in and out of the lineup during Clingan’s reign, the Blazers are not good, so it’s important to take the long view with Clingan. He could have a Walker Kessler-like impact later this season, simply off his head into blocks and rebounds.
Clingan leads all rookies in blocks and is the top-ranked rookie in 9-cat leagues despite missing his last five games. He has gone up a level from my previous report.
Dalton Knecht – SG/SF, Los Angeles Lakers
He’s been labeled as one of the steals of the draft, and he’s been a good streamer since being added to the Lakers’ starting lineup. However, the Lakers offense has been terrible lately, which has hampered Knecht’s production. He’s not someone you should keep in 10-12 team leagues, but keep him on your watchlist. He has proven to be one of the Lakers’ best shooters and floor spacers, even as a rookie.
Level 3: Talented but consistent minutes are hard to come by
Jaylen Wells – SF, Memphis Grizzlies
I have my doubts about Wells because he has earned his minutes and is making the most of them. He is on a two-way deal, so unless the Grizzlies convert him to a full contract, his games will be limited to 50, while he has already played in 22 games.
That said, the man just won Western Conference Rookie of the Month.
He’s benefiting from some injuries on the wing, but he’s an effective scorer on the perimeter, in the paint and on the defensive line at the perimeter. He has come close to being a top 100 player in the past two weeks. However, Wells’ defense leaves a lot to be desired and I don’t trust him to maintain his role once more prominent players get healthy.
Kyshawn George – SG/SF, Washington Wizards
Kyle Kuzma is out with a rib injury and Corey Kispert left last game with an ankle sprain, so if George can overcome his ankle issues he could see some streaming appeal again. He has put up solid numbers as a starter this year, averaging 12.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.0 steals in 31.7 minutes. In time, George will start at SG or SF for the Wizards rebuild.
Matas Buzelis – SF, Chicago Bulls
Buzelis had a bit of a coming out during Monday’s win over the Nets, scoring 20 points (7-10 FG, 4-5 3PT, 2-2 FT) with five boards, one assist and two blocks. Fantasy managers would love to see more of this, but unfortunately he’s behind too many guys. Unless a trade or injury occurs, he won’t see enough consistent minutes to be added in the redraft leagues.
Reed Sheppard – SG, Houston Rockets
We haven’t seen enough yet. Jalen Green hasn’t missed a game and Amen Thompson got the only start at point guard this season in Fred VanVleet’s absence. Like Buzelis, it will take a trade or injury before we see Sheppard consistent enough to be picked up in redraft leagues.
