As the standoff between Russia and Ukraine continues, the war is transforming life not only in Europe, but in countries across Africa.
Russia has claimed “growing influence” in Africa in recent years, Gavin Mortimer said in The Spectator, but recently it has “become clear” that Moscow is “creating chaos on the continent as part of a calculated strategy to destabilize Europe.” In particular, Vladimir Putin has sought to expand his reach in West and Central Africa and gain access to the region’s resources.
Ukraine has also looked at “strengthening its alliances” in Africa to counter growing Russian influence, Alexis Akwagyiram said on Semafor. Volodymr Zelenskyy will make his first state visit to the continent in the coming months, and Ukraine plans to double the number of embassies there.
Why is Africa so important?
The desire to gain influence in Africa shows a “growing appreciation for the role the continent plays in geopolitical affairs,” Akwagyiram said. The “value of African alliances” – and Russian influence on the continent – was underlined when 17 of the 54 African countries in the United Nations abstained from a 2022 vote condemning the Russian invasion. That “made it clear that international condemnation of Moscow was not universal.”
Russia may exploit instability in Africa to “instigate further political destabilization” among its Western enemies, especially through the increase in mass illegal migration from the continent, according to CNBC. Moscow also sees African countries as a gateway to “strategically important natural resources.”
What are Russia and Ukraine doing?
Russia’s modus operandi has so far been to “support shaky regimes with weapons and disinformation in exchange for diamonds and gold” through its Wagner Group mercenary force, now renamed Africa Corps, Lisa Klaassen said in The New Statesman.
Countries in West and Central Africa have been ‘neglected’ by the West and Russia is apparently ‘walking through doors left wide open by former colonial powers’, including in the Central African Republic, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Sudan . The anti-European feeling is fueled by propaganda.
Russia’s influence is clearly felt in Sudan, where a bloody civil war continues to rage, with reports of Russian Wagner mercenaries joining the rebels. It appears that Ukraine has since joined government forces in Sudan in an attempt to “attack Russian interests far beyond the front lines of the war in Ukraine,” according to The Guardian.
Both Russia and Ukraine have tried to win over governments with grain deliveries and humanitarian aid, and Ukraine is expanding its transportation program to “counter the impression that Russia is the only party in the conflict trying to address the impact on Africans,” according to Akwagyiram. .
Both countries have also “attempted to recruit fighters” from Africa, Military Africa said. Many young Africans “facing bleak economic prospects at home” are attracted by the “promise of high wages and even Ukrainian citizenship after the war,” while “estimates suggest that thousands” of Africans have been recruited to Russia, possibly through the Wagner group.
What now?
There is a growing sense that Russia appears to be “winning the hearts and minds of Africans,” Mortimer said.
But while Russia may succeed in forging alliances with other authoritarian regimes, Ukraine may find fertile ground by “appealing directly to Africans on issues that Moscow cannot reach,” Ray Hartley and Greg Mills wrote in the Kiev Independent . Democracy is the “strongest selling point” among young Africans, and if Ukraine loses the war it would have “strategic implications for the democratic world” that would be “both profound and negative.”
