Donald Trump has been elected the 47th president of the United States, according to NBC News Projects — overcoming polls, prosecutions and other pitfalls that seemed to stand in his way during a two-year campaign.
His victory comes after a campaign against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris that was dominated by debates over hot-button issues like abortion and immigration, but also by a focus on race, gender and other demographic divides that have long simmered in American politics . But the balance of evidence from the NBC News Exit Poll suggests that Trump owes his victory to broader, less polarizing factors that drive many elections year in and year out.
These include voters’ frustration with their own finances, deep dissatisfaction with the country’s economy and continued gloom about the state of the country – all of which have fueled the desire for change:
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Nearly half – 45% – of all voters said they were worse off financially than they were four years ago. That was a higher level of dissatisfaction than what was recorded in exit polls in recent elections dating back to 2008, when the election took place amid the financial crisis that propelled Barack Obama to victory.
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Although the economy is growing, with a low unemployment rate and a booming stock market, two in three voters rated the US economy poorly, a level higher than in 2020, when the country struggled to get going during the Covid pandemic.
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All told, the mood in the country this election was very pessimistic, with about three-quarters of voters across the country saying they felt negatively about the way things were going in the country, including 29% who said they were downright angry are.
The overall result: an electorate that has turned quite sour on the incumbent president, Democrat Joe Biden.
Voters’ assessment of his performance — 40% approved, while 58% disapproved — was far worse than Trump’s when he ran for re-election in 2020.
When voters were asked what quality was most important to them in a candidate, a majority said they wanted someone with “the ability to lead” or who could “bring about necessary change.” Trump dominated among those Americans, winning about seven in ten votes.
What was not appeal Trump when voters made their choice? Some of the best-known positions he took on controversial policies:
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Trump stormed the country calling for a mass deportation of illegal immigrants. Voters scrutinized the idea, with only 39% supporting it, while 56% favored allowing immigrants to apply for legal status.
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Trump, through his Supreme Court nominees, is linked to the court’s Dobbs ruling, which overturned a national right to abortion, and Democrats took every opportunity to tie him to post-Dobbs state abortion bans . He said he would not support a national ban, although he played coy during his September debate with Harris on whether he would veto a national ban. One big reason: it’s a very unpopular idea. Only 30% of voters this year said abortion should be illegal in most or all cases, a number that is noticeably lower than four years ago, when it was 42%.
Identity politics and polarization by race, one of the defining features of Trump’s first campaign for president eight years ago, also faded somewhat as factors in his 2024 victory. Instead of:
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Trump received support from as many as 1 in 3 voters of color, most likely the best performance of any Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in his 2004 re-election. That included a notable shift of Latino voters into the Republican column compared to 2020 – they supported Trump by 13 points more.
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Despite the attention paid to Trump’s abortion policies, and despite claims against him by multiple women accusing him of sexual assault and harassment, the gender gap remained stable. Women broke for Harris, 54%-44%, while men favored Trump, 54%-44% — a gap in support of 22 percentage points. But in 2020, Trump performed even worse among women, losing to Biden 57%-42%. His margin among men in 2020, 53%-45%, left a gender gap of 23 points.
A final factor in Trump’s favor: his appeal among Americans less attached to politics and elections:
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The new voters broke for Trump, 54%-45%. That was a huge turnaround from four years ago, when new voters strongly favored Biden, 64%-32%.
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So-called double haters — voters who said they had an unfavorable opinion of both candidates — heavily backed Trump over Harris, 55%-32%. That was a repeat of Trump’s strength among those voters four years ago, when he defeated Biden in the group 52%-35%, and four years before that, when it helped deliver his first presidential victory.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
