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Iran and Israel have been waging a deadly shadow war for decades.
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The two enemies have relied on proxy forces, assassinations and attacks abroad to hit each other.
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Iran’s unprecedented attack last weekend introduced a new dynamic to the simmering conflict.
A decades-long shadow war between Iran and Israel has emerged in broad daylight.
For years, the two bitter enemies have relied on strikes in other countries, secret assassinations and proxy forces to trade blows as part of a simmering – but deadly – conflict. Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel last weekend has significantly changed the dynamics of this conflict and made it more dangerous.
A senior US defense official told reporters on Sunday that “it was the first-ever direct attack on Israel from Iranian soil,” calling the barrage “reckless” and warning that it “risks dragging the region into a broader conflict.”
The intense hostility between Iran and Israel can be traced back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which ushered in a theocratic regime in Tehran that has long opposed Israel’s existence and vowed to eventually destroy the state.
Iran has over the years supported, financed and armed proxy forces in the Middle East, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and relied on them to attack Israeli interests. This has effectively allowed Tehran to attack Israel indirectly.
Israel, on the other hand, has carried out airstrikes on Iranian assets abroad, including in Iraq and Syria, in an effort to limit Tehran’s ability to send lethal weapons across the Middle East to its proxy forces, especially those close to the borders of Israel.
Jonathan Lord, a former political-military analyst at the Pentagon, told Business Insider that Israel has had limited tactical success in this area, “so over time those attacks have become more public and less covert, and we’ve certainly seen that. grow and grow.”
Israel has also attempted to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program, believing it poses an existential threat. It has killed Iranian nuclear scientists and launched cyberattacks on Tehran’s facilities. The shadowy conflict has also sparked exchanges at sea, including the recent Iranian seizure of an Israeli-linked cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amid ongoing tensions, the two enemies managed to avoid direct military confrontation with each other, but that is no longer the case.
An ‘escalation’ in the shadow war
On April 1, an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus, Syria, killed several military officials, including two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals responsible for supporting the Iranian proxy network, the so-called ‘ Axis of Resistance’.
The brazen attack marked a key moment in the shadow war between Israel and Iran, and stood out from previous Israeli actions in Syria because it targeted an Iranian government-affiliated site and high-ranking individuals. Tehran promised to retaliate, and almost two weeks later it did.
Iran and its allies launched more than 300 one-way drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles at Israel – in a major and unprecedented attack. Nearly all Iranian munitions were shot down by Israel and partner forces in the region, including the US.
“It is clear that firing these missiles and drones directly from Iranian territory into Israel is an escalation” in the conflict, said retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who as commander of U.S. Central Command oversaw U.S. military operations in the country. Middle East, to BI.
One country attacking the homeland of another, he added, had generally gone off the radar.
“That’s broken, and that’s changed here,” Votel said, noting that what normally goes on behind the scenes has now been brought “much more out in the open.”
Israel has promised its own retaliation for the Iranian attack and appears to be planning its next move, despite some of its Western partners calling for restraint. Any Israeli military response to the attack risks an all-out confrontation with Iran and could plunge the region into further violence.
“We are on the brink of the abyss and we must move away from it,” European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told Spanish radio station Onda Cero this week, emphasizing that “we are at the have to press the brake and reverse gear.”
Major General Hossein Salami, the IRGC commander, suggested that regardless of whether Israel attacks Iran or its assets abroad, Tehran will retaliate directly as it did last weekend, rather than relying on its proxies as it has in the past done. But it remains to be seen whether such comments will actually translate into action.
Moving forward, the long-standing Shadow War has largely been exposed. Neither side is anymore concerned about hiding attribution for their actions, Lord said, but everything is now more focused on creating deterrence and limiting the other side’s activities.
“There was nothing shady about what we saw this weekend,” Lord said. What used to be kept in the shadows, he said, was no longer the case after it became so open “and the list of usual suspects who could be involved was reduced to two: Iran and Israel.”
Read the original article on Business Insider
