Kamala Harris is launching an attack on border security, which could keep Arizona blue and block Trump’s path to victory.

• Vice President Harris will determine her position on border security independently of President Biden.

• Harris’ campaign is already running ads portraying the vice president as a tough-on-crime prosecutor.

• Such an approach could keep Arizona blue and narrow Trump‘s path to return to the White House.

Last Friday, Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, greeted a crowd of more than 15,000 supporters in Glendale, Arizona, a suburb of Phoenix.

For Democratic supporters in the Grand Canyon State, the outpouring of enthusiasm for their party’s presidential nomination is a sign of the political transformation the state has undergone in recent years.

It’s also a stunning development in a state where former President Donald Trump believes the immigration issue will not only unite his base but also win over independents who disapprove of President Joe Biden’s policies at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Harris believes Biden’s decision to step down as the Democratic presidential nominee gives her the opportunity to address the issue on her own terms, independent of the president.

And it’s a move that could give Harris a major boost in a state that Trump is depending on to win back the White House.

Here’s a look at how Harris tackled border security and the dilemma Trump faces in winning Arizona in November:

Anticipating the attacks

Immigration is a major issue for voters this fall, and it’s not just an issue that appeals to Republican voters. Over the past two years, voters in Democratic-heavy cities like New York and Chicago have seen an influx of migrants sent into their jurisdictions by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who has long opposed the Biden administration’s policies at the southern border. It’s stoked deep divisions, even among residents of some of America’s most liberal cities.

Earlier in Biden’s tenure, record apprehensions at the southern border made immigration one of his weakest issues. When Biden took office, he promised to advance a more humane approach to asylum seekers, but when Trump launched his 2024 bid, the president’s vulnerability on the issue was a key part of his pitch to voters.

The rise of Harris as a presidential candidate disrupts this long-standing dynamic.

The former California attorney general is already taking out ads touting herself as a “border state prosecutor” who busted drug cartels and jailed gang members. And she’s focused on her pledge to crack down on human trafficking and the smuggling of fentanyl into the U.S.

Another Harris ad highlights the vice president’s support for deploying additional border patrols to the southern border.

One thing is crucial for Harris: the number of border crossings has fallen sharply in recent months.

About 57,000 migrants were apprehended at the southern border in July, the lowest monthly total of Biden’s tenure in the White House. It’s a sharp drop from 250,000 apprehensions in December 2023.

The Trump campaign has repeatedly criticized Harris over the issue and has tried to link her to Biden. Republicans often refer to the vice president as a “border czar” who has failed to secure the border.

But it remains to be seen whether that message will get through.

Harris was not officially designated as a “czar” by Biden, nor was she tasked with fully policing the southern border. However, she was charged with addressing the root causes of migration from Central America.

Trump Can’t Take Arizona for Granted

Before Biden won Arizona in 2020, the state last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1996.

Since 1952, there have been only two instances in which the state voted Republican at the presidential level, a reflection of the state’s deep Republican roots.

Nowadays, that conservative attitude is no longer the standard.

Democrat Mark Kelly and independent Kyrsten Sinema hold Arizona’s Senate seats. After years of GOP control, Democrat Katie Hobbs won back the governorship in the 2022 midterm elections. And while Arizona’s legislature remains Republican-controlled, the party holds slim majorities in both the House and Senate.

Just two months ago, it appeared Trump was on track to win Arizona and possibly flip Nevada, a Democratic-leaning swing state that last supported a GOP presidential candidate in 2004. And his fierce focus on border security was a big part of his resonance with his base and a section of voters who had grown disillusioned with Biden on immigration and the economy.

But the Cook Political Report recently downgraded both Arizona and Nevada (as well as Georgia) from the “mostly Republican” category to the “tossup” category.

The movement is the result of the strength of Harris’ campaign, which has not only expanded support among the Democratic base but also made inroads among independents and undecided voters.

As of July, registered independents — or voters classified as “other” — make up nearly 34% of Arizona’s electorate. Republicans make up 35% of the electorate, while Democrats hold a 29% share.

While Trump has enduring appeal to the Republican base, he cannot win on those votes alone.

Harris’ campaign has already begun attacking Trump over his opposition to a bipartisan border security bill that was sponsored by Biden but largely rejected by Republicans after the former president warned Republican lawmakers to oppose the measure.

Trump’s position could provide a boost to independents who want an immigration solution and who believe Harris may take a different approach to the issue than Biden.

For Harris, staying competitive in Arizona gives her multiple opportunities to win in the fall. She clearly has her eye on the state’s 11 electoral votes, but she can win the election without them.

For Trump, however, a Harris victory in Arizona would be a huge blow to his bid for a second term. Biden’s victories in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in 2020 — and his victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — blocked Trump’s path to victory that year.

If Harris can undo the border security issue — a feat that seemed unthinkable when Biden was the presumptive nominee — it gives her a significant chance to win Arizona.

Read the original article on Business Insider